Jordan Staal bad break(leg)

[mikey287]

I guess what I really find funny on this board is the slack some players get over others. Sutter is 25 years old, yet many of his champions on here claim the sky is the limit for this guy, yet will be so quick do condemn a player who's played a handful of games and so confidently say, "he will never be this" or "he'll never get better at that."

Kind of like how people on this board who aren't fans of Despres so easily saying what he will or will not be as a hockey player and the kid has barely had a chance to establish himself, yet Sutter has played six NHL seasons and he gets some kind of unfounded slack.

The same goes for players like Megna, Gibbons or any other younger player who's gotten a super small sample size with the Pens and "experts" on here claim to know what they're ceiling is.

Sky is the limit? That sounds familiar, I believe it once referred resident plug Deryk Engelland.

Anyhow...there's a reason why this happens. Proper talent evaluation. Sutter shows promise, he gets slack. Losers like Casey Pierro-Zabotel get no slack because they aren't good. There's no upside. No discussion. It's not the easiest thing in the world, but there are a lot of things that can be rendered and evaluated when watching a player and you can relatively easily marginalize marginal players...not everyone has the same upside, not all players progress in a meaningful fashion...

Like any other job, talent, or trait...some people are better at this than others...like anything else in life...

[Pitts]

Personally, I'd love to see Johnston develop a real shutdown line that could be deployed against any line. Not sure the Pens really have the proper wings for that type of unit though. From the available options, I'd probably go with Spaling and Downie.

I like that option. I also like Dupuis, should Downie move up to ride with Crosby, or Carcillo, so as to move Downie up with Malkin and Hornqvist. Regardless, there are some much better options this season as compared to last.

[sil]

I get so confused with the whole Sutter argument? He's being given slack for not performing? The guy's about as reliable and steady defensively as you'll find out there. The slack issue isn't even relevant anymore. He's more than proved himself as a third line defensively-oriented centerman.

[sil]

Personally, I'd love to see Johnston develop a real shutdown line that could be deployed against any line. Not sure the Pens really have the proper wings for that type of unit though. From the available options, I'd probably go with Spaling and Downie.

I like that option. I also like Dupuis, should Downie move up to ride with Crosby, or Carcillo, so as to move Downie up with Malkin and Hornqvist. Regardless, there are some much better options this season as compared to last.

All we know is, if it's a true shutdown line, it ain't gonna be Bennett on the wing!

[Hugo Stiglitz]

I guess what I really find funny on this board is the slack some players get over others. Sutter is 25 years old, yet many of his champions on here claim the sky is the limit for this guy, yet will be so quick do condemn a player who's played a handful of games and so confidently say, "he will never be this" or "he'll never get better at that."

Kind of like how people on this board who aren't fans of Despres so easily saying what he will or will not be as a hockey player and the kid has barely had a chance to establish himself, yet Sutter has played six NHL seasons and he gets some kind of unfounded slack.

The same goes for players like Megna, Gibbons or any other younger player who's gotten a super small sample size with the Pens and "experts" on here claim to know what they're ceiling is.

Sky is the limit? That sounds familiar, I believe it once referred resident plug Deryk Engelland.

Anyhow...there's a reason why this happens. Proper talent evaluation. Sutter shows promise, he gets slack. Losers like Casey Pierro-Zabotel get no slack because they aren't good. There's no upside. No discussion. It's not the easiest thing in the world, but there are a lot of things that can be rendered and evaluated when watching a player and you can relatively easily marginalize marginal players...not everyone has the same upside, not all players progress in a meaningful fashion...

Like any other job, talent, or trait...some people are better at this than others...like anything else in life...

Proper talent evaluation? Seriously? I didn't realize we had so many qualified talent scouts on here lol

[mikey287]

I won't speak for anyone else. I can only speak for myself, but I've been evaluating players for various outlets for years and have a verified, strong track record. Since it will just be chalked up as condescension or being a doodoo head or whatever noise, I won't go any further. But I can share more information via PM if necessary.

[Great58]

Does anyone who's seen Sutter this fall have any thoughts about whether he seems to have put on any muscle in the off season? He's always been a bit light for his role, IMO.

[Chirpin' Grinder]

Sutter definitely can and needs to show more. He can certainly play with more passion and physicality, as he proved during the playoffs. He needs to bring that game more consistently.

He also has been saddled by Bylsma and Shero. It will be interesting to see how he is deployed by Johnston.

Mikey, what type of line would you build around Sutter and who do you see as the best fit from this roster?

Personally, I'd love to see Johnston develop a real shutdown line that could be deployed against any line. Not sure the Pens really have the proper wings for that type of unit though. From the available options, I'd probably go with Spaling and Downie.

I think you have a terrific third line, RHS center in Sutter...I think he can be deployed as a player with a role, with a goal on every shift and excel. What he needs is a hard working, up-and-down, first-on-the-forecheck right winger...Pascal Dupuis is probably the best fit on the current roster. But he's not the right handedness. He's also not as physical as I might have liked. But he makes up for the lack of physicality with hockey smarts, which is a trade off I'll almost always take.

The left winger is crucial because Sutter is RHS. He will be the easier winger to pass to on the rush and on the cycle. He needs to be intelligent - moreso than the right side player - but it would be nice if he provided what the RW cannot. So, let's say it's Dupuis at RW. I'd prefer the LW to have some truculence, because it's a good thing to have a shutdown line - a little nasty...it would be nice if he had a decent shot, puck protection ability and just have the ability to not lose draws cleanly in case they are hemmed in after an icing on the wrong side of the ice, a LHS ought to take the draw...Nick Spaling is the best reasonable fit on the roster probably, but he does not have a lot of physicality, but I will assume - and this is kind of leap on my part - that the confidence in himself will rise over the course of the year and he'll handle the puck a little cleaner...

But Spaling is ideal from the sense that the LW on this line does not need to be fast, he has center experience and is very competent defensively...we're missing some muscle on the line, but in the Wales Conference, we're gonna be able to get away with that...we have to stop Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares...not Getzlaf, Kopitar, Backes...Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis can do that I believe if we have good pairing behind them, something that includes Paul Martin...in fact, if you can another player with hockey sense on LD with Martin, we could really get a lot of IQ points out there...a distinct rarity in recent times...

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

[Chirpin' Grinder]

Personally, I'd love to see Johnston develop a real shutdown line that could be deployed against any line. Not sure the Pens really have the proper wings for that type of unit though. From the available options, I'd probably go with Spaling and Downie.

I like that option. I also like Dupuis, should Downie move up to ride with Crosby, or Carcillo, so as to move Downie up with Malkin and Hornqvist. Regardless, there are some much better options this season as compared to last.

All we know is, if it's a true shutdown line, it ain't gonna be Bennett on the wing!

Only because the Penguins don't have 4 better wings for top 6 duty. There isn't anything about Bennett other than perhaps a lack of experience that would preclude him from being proficient in a shutdown role.

A line of Dupuis or Spaling with Sutter and Bennett could be very effective in that role.

[pcm]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

[Chirpin' Grinder]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Kunitz/Malkin/Bennett
Dupuis/Crosby/Hornqvist
Spaling/Sutter/Downie
Ryan Carter/Goc/Comeau



Get the lefties on the left, keep the righties on the right. I think Bennett's creativity will flourish with Malkin and 87 will take better advantage of Hornqvist's down low abilities. I don't really like Megna or Downie on the left. Ryan Carter can probably be signed for less than Megna and would add to the depth and make the fourth line solid.

[Chirpin' Grinder]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

Solid logic I wouldn't hate these combos. I don't really like Downie on the left, but I wouldn't mind seeing it tried. Malkin with two chiselers. It could be a lot to deal with.

Has Megna ever played the left? Adding him leaves only $56k in cap space assuming Scuderi and Adams are still on the roster.

[Hugo Stiglitz]

I won't speak for anyone else. I can only speak for myself, but I've been evaluating players for various outlets for years and have a verified, strong track record. Since it will just be chalked up as condescension or being a doodoo head or whatever noise, I won't go any further. But I can share more information via PM if necessary.

I wasn't calling out anyone specific. My comments were directed in general at the "slack" and/or lack there of directed at players.

[Hugo Stiglitz]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

This seems legit, but I'm sure we'll see some rotations throughout the first month or so. I'm sure Hornqvist will get a few looks with Sid and I'm sure Dupuis will get some looks with Malkin. I can also see Downie and Spaling getting looks on the LW next to Malkin depending on who's performing well.

[FLPensFan]

This is an interesting time for all this advanced stats stuff. I have very little knowledge of most of it, but try to learn a little more each week. The trend I see though, is many people are trying to use stats for EVERYTHING, and the stats just aren't there....even as more and more stat categories for hockey get created.

The other disturbing trend I see is the use of stats to create a statement or backup your opinion, while completely ignoring all other stats that counter this opinion. My favorite so far was this article stating Fleury was a lousy goalie because his backups since the Cup year played close to or better than Fleury's even strength Save%. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/fleu ... s-backups/

I got into a heated argument with a stats guy (not the author) about how none of those players numbers would hold up over a majority of starts (no stats available, assumption) as well as none of those "stellar" backups moved on to become starters elsewhere after playing to Fleury's level. (no stats, but fact). Well, with no stats, that argument apparently isn't valid. As well as, let's forget stats such as comparing several of the Cup final goalies from past years (Quick, Lundqvist, Rask, Luongo, Crawford) regular season stats to Fleury's, and find that he is better than some in some years, worse in other years, and the argument diminishes more.

The point I'm trying to make....all these advanced stats are great, but I find too many people are finding ways to use the stats to show what they want to prove, not looking at the data to see what it shows, or having a 2nd party attempt to offer a differing view, still using stats. If a stat guy tells me Sutter is horrible at X, but then I do my own research and see Crosby is worse than Sutter at X (random non-true example here), guess what, I'm not going to start lobbying to trade Crosby.

[Factorial]

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Haven't we already heard that HCMJ likes Dupuis with Sid?

[Hugo Stiglitz]

If used right, I think Corsi and Fenwick stats are best used by coaches in creating their lines vs. certain teams and specific situations. The more complex corsi and fenwck stats give you good insight into how certain players are when paired with others as well as seeing how certain players or pairs fair against potential match-ups.

I don't want to talk this to death as it was exhausted in another thread, but i think the real advanced stats will come about when they can really keep track of how long players spend in various zones of the ice. This will be the best indicator of possession strength, but even that will have room for error.

I just think hockey moves too quickly and situations change too fast for there ever to be truly close to 100% accurate advanced stats. I believe hockey will always be one of those sports where you have to just trust the experts and that there's no better way to evaluate than watching.

[FLPensFan]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

My only issue with this is the 2nd line. I don't see Malkin doing well with both Hornqvist and Downie. Hornqvist and Downie are kind of the same player, obviously with Hornqvist having more skill and scoring touch. But to me, they play the same game to be successful...go hard to the net, cycle and dig pucks out off the boards. I keep hearing that 14-87-9 will remain a line, so until the season starts and shows otherwise, I'm going to assume Dupuis and Bennett get swapped, and possibly Downie-Spaling swap. Let's remember that HCMJ seems to want pairs of two with others moving around. For lines 1 and 2, I see Crosby-Kunitz and Malkin-Hornqvist as those pairs of two. Sometimes Dupuis can play line 1, at least to start, other times, Bennett can jump up there. The problem becomes the 3rd line, because unless your pairs of two are center and same side winger (R or L) throughout the lineup, it doesn't work well. I can see Sutter-Bennett as the pair to start the season, with Downie and Spaling swapping spots depending on what is working.

[FLPensFan]

If used right, I think Corsi and Fenwick stats are best used by coaches in creating their lines vs. certain teams and specific situations. The more complex corsi and fenwck stats give you good insight into how certain players are when paired with others as well as seeing how certain players or pairs fair against potential match-ups.

I don't want to talk this to death as it was exhausted in another thread, but i think the real advanced stats will come about when they can really keep track of how long players spend in various zones of the ice. This will be the best indicator of possession strength, but even that will have room for error.

I just think hockey moves too quickly and situations change too fast for there ever to be truly close to 100% accurate advanced stats. I believe hockey will always be one of those sports where you have to just trust the experts and that there's no better way to evaluate than watching.

Good summary, Hugo.

And for all the advanced stats, if you really wanted to "Moneyball" hockey, the only stat you really need is goals. Because all you have to do is score one more goal than your opponent to win the game. Doesn't matter if the score is 7-6 and your goalie and defense suck. You scored more goals, you won the game. This is the area I have been starting to look at more and more, to see things like # of goals scored in the season to make the playoffs, PP, SH, and SO goals impact on winning, etc.

And again with the Moneyball type approach, if you look at goals scored by players with 40 or more games last year, we lost Neal(27), Jokinen (21), Gibbons(5), Glass(4), and Vitale(1). Should probably also add Dupuis (7 goals in 39 games). Now look at the adds in Hornqvist(21), Spaling(8), Comeau(5), Downie(4), and Goc(11), plus, add Dupuis at a full season and say a modest 15 goals, well, that is 65 goals out the door, 64 goals in the door. A fairly even trade. I think the Pens are also thinking Spaling and Comeau are going to increase their offensive output, Goc didn't score at all for the Pens last year and he is typically good for 9-12 goals over a season, which is double Adams usual output there. You could add more variables, but the fact remains that while the Pens lost 2 guys and 48 goals, they swapped out more 5 goal max players to get players that are capable of producing 10-15 goals, so they become a more rounded team.

[pcm]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

My only issue with this is the 2nd line. I don't see Malkin doing well with both Hornqvist and Downie. Hornqvist and Downie are kind of the same player, obviously with Hornqvist having more skill and scoring touch. But to me, they play the same game to be successful...go hard to the net, cycle and dig pucks out off the boards. I keep hearing that 14-87-9 will remain a line, so until the season starts and shows otherwise, I'm going to assume Dupuis and Bennett get swapped, and possibly Downie-Spaling swap. Let's remember that HCMJ seems to want pairs of two with others moving around. For lines 1 and 2, I see Crosby-Kunitz and Malkin-Hornqvist as those pairs of two. Sometimes Dupuis can play line 1, at least to start, other times, Bennett can jump up there. The problem becomes the 3rd line, because unless your pairs of two are center and same side winger (R or L) throughout the lineup, it doesn't work well. I can see Sutter-Bennett as the pair to start the season, with Downie and Spaling swapping spots depending on what is working.

Malkin excelled with 2 inferior players in Talbot and Tank on his wings. I think he does really well with guys who can create space for him. Also, Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, with Dupuis a close 2nd. Spaling in that role does not settle well with me...

I don't doubt that Dupuis will get slotted in on the top line, but long term, I think these are the best lines/roles for each player.

The wildcard is Kapanen. If he makes the team (which we'll have a better idea of tonight), then I'd guess he starts on the 3rd line RW. Then we'd be looking at:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Dupuis-Malkin-Hornqvist
Downie-Sutter-Kapanen
Spaling-Goc-Comeau

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

Kunitz/Malkin/Bennett
Dupuis/Crosby/Hornqvist
Spaling/Sutter/Downie
Ryan Carter/Goc/Comeau



Get the lefties on the left, keep the righties on the right. I think Bennett's creativity will flourish with Malkin and 87 will take better advantage of Hornqvist's down low abilities. I don't really like Megna or Downie on the left. Ryan Carter can probably be signed for less than Megna and would add to the depth and make the fourth line solid.

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

Solid logic I wouldn't hate these combos. I don't really like Downie on the left, but I wouldn't mind seeing it tried. Malkin with two chiselers. It could be a lot to deal with.

Has Megna ever played the left? Adding him leaves only $56k in cap space assuming Scuderi and Adams are still on the roster.

>posts twice
>responds to the same post in both
>disagrees with the post in one, agrees with it in the other


I'm so confused

[MRandall25]

I think you want to set it up so that Crosby, Kunitz, and Dupuis each perform to their highest individual capabilities.

Honestly, the only way I see that happening is if they're all on the same line together. Why break something that works?

[GeoTank]

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

Kunitz/Malkin/Bennett
Dupuis/Crosby/Hornqvist
Spaling/Sutter/Downie
Ryan Carter/Goc/Comeau



Get the lefties on the left, keep the righties on the right. I think Bennett's creativity will flourish with Malkin and 87 will take better advantage of Hornqvist's down low abilities. I don't really like Megna or Downie on the left. Ryan Carter can probably be signed for less than Megna and would add to the depth and make the fourth line solid.

I hadn't even considered Dupuis as I assume he'll be needed higher in the lineup. I'd love to see him get pushed down there and be Sutter's LW, actually. But who do you have in your top 6 if your third line is Spaling/Sutter/Dupuis?

My best projected lineup:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
Downie-Malkin-Hornqvist
Spaling-Sutter-Dupuis
Megna-Goc-Comeau

Downie has the most experience playing LW on a scoring line, so put him with Malkin. Bennett is our most skilled wing. He should be playing with Sid long-term. Better start now. That 3rd line is a solid, responsible 3rd line. And our 4th line is probably better than last year's 3rd line...

Solid logic I wouldn't hate these combos. I don't really like Downie on the left, but I wouldn't mind seeing it tried. Malkin with two chiselers. It could be a lot to deal with.

Has Megna ever played the left? Adding him leaves only $56k in cap space assuming Scuderi and Adams are still on the roster.

>posts twice
>responds to the same post in both
>disagrees with the post in one, agrees with it in the other


I'm so confused

The best is they are only 17mins apart and nothing in between them.

[Idoit40fans]

I guess he didn't switch accounts properly.

[rgj]

The season hasn't even started and players are dropping like flies

Especially the Pens....they hadn't even touched the ice and Malkin and Crosby were injured......it's a sign.......