No, because you're wrong.ulf wrote:Wait, am I really explaining this?
***World Warz II Game Thread***
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 51889
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:13 pm
- Location: دعنا نذهب طيور البطريق
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
-
- NHL Fourth Liner
- Posts: 20587
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:31 am
- Location: Shutter Island
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Bomb shad
If my memory serves me, the player that starts a random vote has turned out to be red most often which is why shad gets my vote.
As for probability, would the number of players in each game effect the odds of being chosen as a red player for both?
If my memory serves me, the player that starts a random vote has turned out to be red most often which is why shad gets my vote.
As for probability, would the number of players in each game effect the odds of being chosen as a red player for both?
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 48700
- Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:06 pm
- Location: governor of Fayettenam
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
so by your reasoning the P(me being red last game) = 0, and P(me being red this game) = 3/18. P(lg) * p(tg) = 0. Sweet.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 10615
- Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:57 am
- Location: Sparta, WI
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Such bad reasoning. Wow.
I was blue last time. Killed off prematurely by a ignorant angry mob, mind you. Does that make me more or less likely to be blue in this game?
I was blue last time. Killed off prematurely by a ignorant angry mob, mind you. Does that make me more or less likely to be blue in this game?
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 51889
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:13 pm
- Location: دعنا نذهب طيور البطريق
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
The probability of you being red in both games is in fact 0, since you weren't in the last game.mac5155 wrote:so by your reasoning the P(me being red last game) = 0, and P(me being red this game) = 3/18. P(lg) * p(tg) = 0. Sweet.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 14876
- Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:41 pm
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
This is too much lol
-
- ECHL'er
- Posts: 1133
- Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 11:40 am
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
good explaination...and if you turely believe what you said here:ulf wrote:While your match is correct, it's only relevant if we were at the beginning of last game thinking, "what are the odds rel is red this game and the next one?" since that game is over, it's moot.
Sure, flipping heads twice in a row is a 25 percent chance, but once you do it the first time, it's 50 percent you're gonna do it again. Wait, am I really explaining this?
ulf wrote:Always intrigues me when people go against the random vote, there's really nothing to go on yet. Also the stats are irrelevant to this single game.
then you should be strongly considering columbia at this point...or voting on rel yourself.
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 51889
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:13 pm
- Location: دعنا نذهب طيور البطريق
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
The point is is that we have a nearly 97% chance of killing a villager, if we voter out rel.
Ultimately first day kills don't really matter, but let's not pretend that it's a good choice....at all.
Ultimately first day kills don't really matter, but let's not pretend that it's a good choice....at all.
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 51889
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:13 pm
- Location: دعنا نذهب طيور البطريق
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Killing a non-red, I should say.columbia wrote:The point is is that we have a nearly 97% chance of killing a villager, if we voter out rel.
Ultimately first day kills don't really matter, but let's not pretend that it's a good choice....at all.
-
- ECHL'er
- Posts: 1133
- Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 11:40 am
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
can i be excused from typos?
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 14876
- Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:41 pm
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Except you're wrong.columbia wrote:The point is is that we have a nearly 97% chance of killing a villager, if we voter out rel.
Ultimately first day kills don't really matter, but let's not pretend that it's a good choice....at all.
Yellow columbia
-
- NHL Third Liner
- Posts: 27917
- Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2007 3:28 pm
- Location: Fredneck
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Ill allow it.Benny Fitz wrote:can i be excused from typos?
On mobile for the moment if someone wants to update the vote count.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 14876
- Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:41 pm
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
I guess I should add to un-bomb dodint, color plz
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 48700
- Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:06 pm
- Location: governor of Fayettenam
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
ulf wrote:I guess I should add to un-bomb dodint, color plz
-
- ECHL'er
- Posts: 1133
- Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 11:40 am
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
You are a most benevolent mod.PensFanInDC wrote:Ill allow it.Benny Fitz wrote:can i be excused from typos?
On mobile for the moment if someone wants to update the vote count.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 10615
- Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:57 am
- Location: Sparta, WI
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Vote Count
dodint - 3 (shaf, columbia, mac5155)
Shaf - 2 (relantel, SDD)
relantel - 5 (Benny Fitz, Crankshaft, Cbear, dodint, Troy Loney)
columbia - 1 (ulf)
9 to bomb
dodint - 3 (shaf, columbia, mac5155)
Shaf - 2 (relantel, SDD)
relantel - 5 (Benny Fitz, Crankshaft, Cbear, dodint, Troy Loney)
columbia - 1 (ulf)
9 to bomb
-
- NHL Fourth Liner
- Posts: 17885
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 10:24 am
- Location: The card table
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
I should try a warz game in the normal theme. Wonder how different it would be? (In Maxthon, have to highlight the yellow text with mouse to see who the vote was on)mac5155 wrote:Playing this game in maxthon theme is yard. yellow on white doesn't mix. I dont think rel should go this early.
bomb dodint
-
- NHL First Liner
- Posts: 60559
- Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 5:10 pm
- Location: Amish Country
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
I think there is a lot of purposeful confusion being lobbed about right now.
-
- NHL Fourth Liner
- Posts: 17412
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:11 pm
- Location: :scared:
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Hmm. I don't like voting the noob out on day one again... People can't get experience if they don't play. I also don't like the idea losing rel this early.
Warz is a cold mistress I'm afraid. Gotta go with bomb dodint. Color please.
Warz is a cold mistress I'm afraid. Gotta go with bomb dodint. Color please.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 10615
- Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:57 am
- Location: Sparta, WI
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Like a vote for rel is a 97% chance of killing a non-red based on rel having a role in the last game? You mean you don't find that terribly convincing?
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 48700
- Joined: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:06 pm
- Location: governor of Fayettenam
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Even though I feel this is sarcasm, I don't. I do, however, think freaking out with there are 4 votes on you, more convincing.dodint wrote:Like a vote for rel is a 97% chance of killing a non-red based on rel having a role in the last game? You mean you don't find that terribly convincing?
-
- NHL Second Liner
- Posts: 51889
- Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:13 pm
- Location: دعنا نذهب طيور البطريق
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
the wicked child wrote:Gotta go with bomb dodint. Color please.
-
- NHL Third Liner
- Posts: 39689
- Joined: Tue May 30, 2006 11:13 am
- Location: Nevin Shapiro A&M
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
bomb rel
-
- ECHL'er
- Posts: 1133
- Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 11:40 am
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
my 1052 posts (now 1053) have pretty much exclusively been in warz games. in all those games i've never seen anyone use this line of reasoning, and columbia has been in a lot of them. I'm fairly certain he's applying the 'math' incorrectly and am also suspicious of why he would lobby sooo hard with this new approach all of the sudden....and on day 1 no less.
-
- NHL Healthy Scratch
- Posts: 10615
- Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:57 am
- Location: Sparta, WI
Re: ***World Warz II Game Thread***
Same. The only reason I don't feel bad about voting rel is that they're both probably red.