The Return of the Playoff Tracker Thread

[Dynasty1970]

[FLPensFan]

Going into tonight, the Penguins had 55 points and 30 games remaining. 60 possible points up for grabs, and, forgetting for a minute what the teams ahead of them are doing, the team probably needs 95 points, or 40 out of 60 points, to make the playoffs. Seems highly unlikely, as that is a .666 points percentage, and the Penguins are at .529 points percentage on the season.

Game 1: Islanders, 1 point earned, 1 point lost (58 total points remain, 1 point gained)

Game 1: Islanders, 1 point earned, 1 point lost (58 total points remain, 1 point gained)
Game 2: Montreal, 2 points earned, 0 points lost (56 points remain, 3 points earned)

And for those ahead of them
--Penguins are down to 3 games in hand on Philly (although Philly is playing NYR now); Philly is 9 points up on the Penguins for 3rd, and won their last game
--Penguins have 3 games in hand on Detroit; Detroit is 10 points up on the Penguins for WC1; DET has won 4 in a row and 7-2-1 in last 10
--Penguins have 4 games in hand on Tampa; Tampa is 7 points up on the Penguins for WC2; Tampa has lost their last 3 in a row, but is up 3-0 on NYI today

[Daniel]

Adding to my previous thoughts…The other thing is that had the organization used WBS properly, there would be Scott Wilsons that you plug in the lineup. With a 1C drafted 6 years ago then Sid at 2C faces 2nd d man pairing. 71 at 3C faces 3rd pairings. But we remained super stagnant.

Just a general question. Do you remember when the Penguins would bring people up from WBS and plug them in and they could be effective? Been a long time. But there were years the Kuhnhackls carried the load when our stars were injured. Long time ago huh?

That's been the trend since Sid and them started this run. They brought up young guys and added some vets to help them grow, The instead of letting the core grow and add others from WBS they got the Brendan Morrows of the world. When they wised up and starting using the Scott Wilson's of the NHL world they won two cups, now they're back to the Brendan Morrow era again.

Thing is, WBS has never really been strong with blue chip prospects but they've had a ton of Scott Wilson's and that's always been what the NHL team has needed since Sid, Geno, Kris, etc. Scoring has rarely been a problem, it's always been defense and guys to do the dirty work (again, Scott Wilson, lol).

[Puck-Lurker]

Mathematical chance of making the playoffs at 18%.

With games in hand, we still control our own destiny, but it's an increasingly theoretical chance of still making it.

[KBone]

Yeah, they keep playing juuuuuuuuuuuuust good enough so that if the stars align, they could theoretically make it.... maybe.

That is until they have one more 2 or 3 game losing streak. Then it's lights out for sure.

[Daniel]

Yeah, they keep playing juuuuuuuuuuuuust good enough so that if the stars align, they could theoretically make it.... maybe.

That is until they have one more 2 or 3 game losing streak. Then it's lights out for sure.

They have 7 games until the deadline, I wish they'd either win them all or lose them all so we can have a clear understanding of whether they'll miss the playoffs or lose in the 1st round.

[Dynasty1970]

Yeah, they keep playing juuuuuuuuuuuuust good enough so that if the stars align, they could theoretically make it.... maybe.

That is until they have one more 2 or 3 game losing streak. Then it's lights out for sure.

They have 7 games until the deadline, I wish they'd either win them all or lose them all so we can have a clear understanding of whether they'll miss the playoffs or lose in the 1st round.

They are not going to win them all, so………I guess you wish they will lose them all. I don’t care what they do as long as they fire Sully!

[Badger Bob]

The schedule the rest of the way is brutal. Pretty much a game every other day and 4 back-to-backs. I have a feeling this will just wear down the old men as the season winds down.

[FLPensFan]

The schedule the rest of the way is brutal. Pretty much a game every other day and 4 back-to-backs. I have a feeling this will just wear down the old men as the season winds down.

The other thing to consider is, while Dubas may make the mistake and not sell...other teams are going to buy. So if Philly, Tampa, and Detroit all go out and become buyers, it will make it even harder for us to gain ground. Dubas has already said he's not giving up major assets to be buyers.

[Pitts]

The schedule the rest of the way is brutal. Pretty much a game every other day and 4 back-to-backs. I have a feeling this will just wear down the old men as the season winds down.

The other thing to consider is, while Dubas may make the mistake and not sell...other teams are going to buy. So if Philly, Tampa, and Detroit all go out and become buyers, it will make it even harder for us to gain ground. Dubas has already said he's not giving up major assets to be buyers.

On the game broadcast yesterday all they talked about was the Flyers intent to sell. Apparently Brier will stick to his re-build strategy regardless of their place in the standings. That's why in other thread I mentioned that will be the Pens best play - just let the Flyers tank their own season. Still have to outplay NJ and NYI to get there though.

[Cow_Master66]

I'm sure they can flip the switch and the PP will start clicking at around 30%.

[Badger Bob]

I'm sure they can flip the switch and the PP will start clicking at around 30%.

They are just playing possum. They're gonna catch everyone by surprise.

[Antonio]

About to get to their game...it is the next step after consistently competing hard.

[FLPensFan]

Islanders win tonight in OT. Washington wins as well. Just another point working against the Penguins is, while they still hold games in hand (Penguins tied with EDM for fewest games played in the league), not only do the Penguins need Philly, Detroit, and Tampa to fall off so they can gain ground, but they also need the Islanders, Devils, and Capitals to not get hot either.

That's a tall order, games in hand or not. On this date last year, the Penguins had 59 games played and 67 points, holding on to WC2 spot.

[Sams_Dog]

It seems like all of the Metro teams are winning 2 out of three right now.

[Pens4Life]

Its gonna be tough,very tough,if not impossible,if maybe Rusty is out longer term as well.. missing two best wingers is hard to compensate

[FLPensFan]

4 teams above the Penguins in the standings are playing each other tonight:

--Detroit beat the Capitals 8-3
--Philly beat Tampa 6-2

Both outcomes hurt the Penguins chances.

[pronovost19]

Big win. Up 8% to 51.5% after the win in Vancouver.

[KG]

Big win. Up 8% to 51.5% after the win in Vancouver.

7 points behind Tampa, but with 5 games in hand...Going to be a grind. Hoping they can catch Philly.

[pronovost19]

Big win. Up 8% to 51.5% after the win in Vancouver.

7 points behind Tampa, but with 5 games in hand...Going to be a grind. Hoping they can catch Philly.

Need some help. Need the Flyers to go on another skid.

[pronovost19]

Up 0.1% to 51.6% chance. It’s a toss up right now.

[FLPensFan]

Up 0.1% to 51.6% chance. It’s a toss up right now.

The things working against the Penguins, and why they should be sellers:

1) Games in hand or not, the Penguins are battling 6 teams for the 3 playoff spots. Philly currently 3rd in Metro, Detroit WC1 spot, and Tampa WC2 spot are in. The other 3 teams, NJ and WSH are ahead of PIT, and NYI is now tied in points but below us due to more games played. All of the teams outside the playoffs are Metro teams.

2) Given item #1, it's a tall order to ask the Penguins to get hot AND 4 Metro teams to suddenly go cold.

3) I've heard varying reports on Philly, that they may stay the course, view this as an abberation, and still be sellers at the deadline. Nothing concrete there, though. I expect NJ to be buyers, and I kind of think Uncle Lou has pressure on him to get his team in the playoffs, so they may be buyers...along with Detroit and Tampa.

4) The Penguins are going to be sellers, or at best (or worst, depending on your viewpoint), they trade a Reilly Smith in a hockey trade and stand firm.

Lots and lots of things pointing the wrong direction. The stars are scattering, not aligning. Tonight is a game that I had them winning on the road trip. Let's see how they do.

[Antonio]

Yeah sad as it is, winning the last 3 is actually the worst thing they could be doing for the longer term health of the team. Creating the temporary illusion they could do something is a terrible delusion. They need to firmly lean into selling, not imagining a reality that doesn't exist based on a few games.

[thehockeyguru]

Yeah sad as it is, winning the last 3 is actually the worst thing they could be doing for the longer term health of the team. Creating the temporary illusion they could do something is a terrible delusion. They need to firmly lean into selling, not imagining a reality that doesn't exist based on a few games.

Best case scenario is they sell and still make the playoffs. I really want to give SJ our 2024 1st that is a late teens early 20s pick. We could be worse next year if Crosby regresses

[Antonio]

Oh agreed on all counts. Obviously the best case is they fully lean into the fact that they need to rebuild, do it and STILL squeak in. I just want them to deal with reality with regards to rebuilding. Any success on top is gravy.