Opinion on NHL player

[FLPensFan]

Just looking to get some general, unbiased opinions on a player. If you want to comment, please don't research stats, etc to try and determine who the player is. Comment only based on what you see posted below:

-Player was a #3 overall draft pick, and is a forward.
-Player did not make the NHL his draft year.
-Player scored 31 points in 48 games his rookie year.
-Player had hip surgery following his rookie year.
-Year 2, player scored 28 points in 69 games.
-Year 3, player has scored 17 points in 34 games this season.
-The player plays on a team that is in the bottom 3rd of the most seasons.
-He has averaged about 16 minutes of ice time per game over his 3 seasons.
In 151 total NHL games, he has 76 points.

As a number 3 overall draft pick, would you rate this player as a bust, underachieving, on pace with draft status, overachieving, other?

Said player is an RFA at season end? What would you pay him? QO? Low-end bridge deal?

[MRandall25]

Underachieving on a crappy team

If I only had capgeek to use... I'd wager he makes $1.5-$2.5 mil on his deal.

[sniper]

-I'd say he's on pace to above pace given the team he plays for and the supporting cast.
-I'd think you go with a bridge deal at this point, maybe something that starts off at around what he's worth now and goes up a bit each year.

A qualifying offer would be too low and a long term deal at a high amount would be too much. I'm not certain of his use in all the games without looking, but if he's being used in key situations and is an important player to the team a bridge deal would appropriate. I'd imagine he's shown signs of untapped potential. A bridge deal for about 3 years would seem appropriate to me and good for both team and player. I'm sure there are other players in similar situations. Look up what happened there to get an idea of salary. Probably around what complimentary top and second line wingers are getting. $3-$4M a year on average I'd think.

Just my two cents.

[mikey287]

I know who it is, but removing myself from that, I'd need to know more about his development, his actual on-ice contribution, etc.

Not everyone joins the NHL at the same level or same place on the development arc.

Reminding myself on who it is, I feel this player is still on the low-end of his development arc and has lots of room for growth...

[tfrizz]

I know who it is, but removing myself from that, I'd need to know more about his development, his actual on-ice contribution, etc.

Not everyone joins the NHL at the same level or same place on the development arc.

Reminding myself on who it is, I feel this player is still on the low-end of his development arc and has lots of room for growth...

Agreed.

Underachieving on a crappy team

If I only had capgeek to use... I'd wager he makes $1.5-$2.5 mil on his deal.

Try http://nhlnumbers.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ; it's not as nice as CapGeek was, but it's better than nothing.

[sniper]

I went and looked up his stats, but NHL.com isn't working right so I can't see PP time per game. His PP points are low... is he getting quality PP minutes?
He was also way down their list in average ice time last season 11th among forwards...that seems odd for a team in their position. Their top point producer only had 38 points last season...
I still think he's on pace and will turn out alright, but he really doesn't have much to work with and they got to give him more ice time.
I still say do a bridge deal that starts in the low $2M range and heads into the mid $3M range, maybe average out around $3M a year for 3 years.
The more I look at the stats the more I wonder why he isn't being used more frequently. His ice time seems to have decreased the last three years, he's shooting less, and his shooting percentage is almost half of what it was in year one. Odd.

[npv708]

I also know exactly who it is and I pretty much second mikey in thinking he has a lot of room for growth.

I'd take it a step further and say that he hasn't necessarily been misused on his current team, but hasn't exactly been used in the best situations either, imo. I'm not sure, until very recently, that his team knows how to use him for greatest impact.

I'd put him at around 3.3/3.5m.

[Crankshaft]

I know who it is, too.

[meow]

Sounds like he was rushed to the NHL.

[Pitts]

If everyone knows who the hell he is, why are we keeping it a secret?

[MRandall25]

Because his name has a sort of pedigree behind it due to being who he is?

[mikey287]

As to not influence the discussion because of the name hype. i.e. everyone wanting to claim Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi off waivers because they recall the name from the draft and Future Watch and whatever else...even claiming that he has "lots of skill" or what have you...even though that's obviously not the case when you see him...but because of the name - tied with the draft placement - people think that he must still be good. There are times when they may be the case, with MSP it was not.

I don't really believe in blanket statements when talking about development. Every situation is different. Some rules may apply, but you have to tailor make your thoughts to each situation like this...I see what the OP was looking for, but ultimately, it won't help get an unbiased answer any more than putting the name in here I feel...

[Idoit40fans]

I can tell who that is, so...good talk.

[FLPensFan]

OK, so for everyone that doesn't know, I was talking about Jonathan Huberdeau of the Panthers. I was curious to others opinion, as I had a small debate with someone on Twitter today who couldn't understand the criticism he received because he is only 21 years old. While the person is a hockey person, they are very pro-Panthers and run a Panthers based site. So I wanted to see if I was being too critical of the player.

My general opinion of him is that as of right now, he is not living up to his draft status. I think it's a combination of his injury slowing his development, not having good players around him, possibly playing too early, and playing on a bad team in general. Because of his age, he never played in the AHL, which probably would have done him some good in terms of his development.

Having said that, I also think he still has tons of room to grow and improve. I'm not sure the Panthers are going to let him (ie, have the right talent around him) hit his full potential. He's definitely above his QO, but I can't see giving the guy anything more than about 2.5M. Just can't see giving a player with "potential" 3-4M in salary, when you have proven guys out there, like a Kunitz, Perron, Hornqvist, etc making around that much as well.

This leads into another question. If you decide that Jonathan Huberdeau deserves 3M plus, what do you pay Jimmy Hayes, who is also an RFA, and took the team to arbitration last year? Huberdeau is currently about a half point per game player, and .17 goals per game, while Hayes is about a .4 points per game player, but .22 goals per game. Hayes has 28 career goals in 26 less games than Huberdeau, who has 27 career goals.

[Crankshaft]

If everyone knows who the hell he is, why are we keeping it a secret?

Who knows. It was posted by the Florida pens fan. It wasn't hard to figure out.

[FLPensFan]

If everyone knows who the hell he is, why are we keeping it a secret?

Who knows. It was posted by the Florida pens fan. It wasn't hard to figure out.

touche Guess I under-estimated how well some of you could tell who it was based on stats, etc. Just didn't want everyone to go look up the numbers, say, oh its Huberdeau, my opinion of him is X. But, I guess that didn't work. Still got the feedback I wanted to see.

[Idoit40fans]

Id offer a very low 2 year contract right now.


Edit: and yeah as soon as i got to third overall pick i immediately thought of him since it was you and the numbers sounded right.

[Pitts]

If everyone knows who the hell he is, why are we keeping it a secret?

Who knows. It was posted by the Florida pens fan. It wasn't hard to figure out.

I figured out who it was as well, the clues were not hard. I know he didn't want us looking at stats, but it pretty easy to go back 2-3 drafts and see who the #3 pick was. Just wasn't sure what the secrecy was for (reason).