The Ryan Johansen Saga

[mikey287]

I think he'll be worth in excess of that by then...

[DelPen]

I think he'll be worth in excess of that by then...

He most likely won't be worth less. If he his they can just not qualify him and he then can't take them to arbitration, right? Seems like it's all win for Columbus.

[meow]

$3mil, $3mil, $6mil breakdown per year

Kind of surprised the Jackets went to $6M in the final year. That could create some problems for them - Johansen will be an RFA with a $6M qualifying price, and he'll be eligible for arbitration where he can't walk away with less than $5.1M (85% of his previous year's salary). Although, the Jackets did get their $3M in the first two years so it was probably that final year that got the deal done.

I don't think anyone has to worry about him commanding less that $6mil a year by this contracts end.

[tfrizz]

I think he'll be worth in excess of that by then...

He most likely won't be worth less. If he his they can just not qualify him and he then can't take them to arbitration, right? Seems like it's all win for Columbus.

There'd be no danger if he took them to arbitration. Since his award would be above $3.5M, the Jackets would have the option to walk away from it.

[mikey287]

I think he'll be worth in excess of that by then...

He most likely won't be worth less. If he his they can just not qualify him and he then can't take them to arbitration, right? Seems like it's all win for Columbus.

Yeah, if he's so unbelievably not worth that, then they can just not tender him a QO and walk...no obligation...

[Idoit40fans]

Something tells me ryjo pushed for that last year and the bjs are going to be laughing about it. Arbitration isnt going to come into play for a guy like that in his last rfa. The way the cap is going he should have been happy with the $8mil/2.

Its astonishing to me that if he really thinks hes worth what the contract demands suggest he does, that he added that.

Its not inconsistent with his camp's stupidity through this whole process though.

[tfrizz]

Something tells me ryjo pushed for that last year and the bjs are going to be laughing about it. Arbitration isnt going to come into play for a guy like that in his last rfa. The way the cap is going he should have been happy with the $8mil/2.

You mean falling short of projections and likely to continue falling short as the USD continues to strengthen, weakening the CAD? This is the weakest the CAD has been since 2009.

[pcm]

Something tells me ryjo pushed for that last year and the bjs are going to be laughing about it. Arbitration isnt going to come into play for a guy like that in his last rfa. The way the cap is going he should have been happy with the $8mil/2.

Its astonishing to me that if he really thinks hes worth what the contract demands suggest he does, that he added that.

Its not inconsistent with his camp's stupidity through this whole process though.

I don't think it was RJ pushing for the 3rd year. I think it was the team, relenting to go to all the way to $4m in exchange for 3 years. RJ camp counters with 3rd year at $6m, done deal.

[Idoit40fans]

Something tells me ryjo pushed for that last year and the bjs are going to be laughing about it. Arbitration isnt going to come into play for a guy like that in his last rfa. The way the cap is going he should have been happy with the $8mil/2.

You mean falling short of projections and likely to continue falling short as the USD continues to strengthen, weakening the CAD? This is the weakest the CAD has been since 2009.

Im not sure what argument you think you are making.

[Troy Loney]

lower Canadian dollar means lower NHL revenue means lower CAP?

[mikey287]

Yes, essentially.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

but isn't the NHL based in the US? Seems confusing

[MRandall25]

Canadians don't pay to watch games with US Dollars.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

And Americans don't pay to watch games with Canadian dollars.

And there are 5 times more American teams

So I would assume the USD would have a lot more weight than the CAD

[tfrizz]

but isn't the NHL based in the US? Seems confusing

Revenue for the Canadian teams in is Canadian dollars. And since they generate an overly large portion of the NHL's revenue, a weak Canadian dollar means less money for the league. For the sake of throwing numbers out there, let's say that about half of the NHL's US$3.7-billion. The average exchange rate was in the vicinity of 94% over the period of time from Oct 2013 through June 2014, so that's actually CAD$1.97-billion in revenue converted to US$1.85-billion. The weakening Canadian dollar, current at about 89.885%, would place that same revenue at US$1.66-billion.

As a general rule, the salary cap and it's trend ties in extremely closely with the strength of the Canadian dollar.

[Troy Loney]

And Americans don't pay to watch games with Canadian dollars.

And there are 5 times more American teams

So I would assume the USD would have a lot more weight than the CAD

Five times more american teams, but i bet revenue isn't five times more from the United States. Revenues derived from Canada are worth less in american dollars if the Canadian currency falls relative to the dollar.

[MRandall25]

Current exchange rate is 1.12 CD to 1 USD

[tfrizz]

And Americans don't pay to watch games with Canadian dollars.

And there are 5 times more American teams

So I would assume the USD would have a lot more weight than the CAD

Five times more american teams, but i bet revenue isn't five times more from the United States. Revenues derived from Canada are worth less in american dollars if the Canadian currency falls relative to the dollar.

All I'm getting at is that we can't assume anything about the cap going forward because there's a lot of uncertainty around the strength of the Canadian dollar. This season's salary cap falling short of projections could very well be attributed to a sharp drop in the value of the Canadian dollar between Jan 1 and Mar 31 this year (where it dropped approximately 5%). There was a slight recovery in the spring, but the value is now that the lowest it's been in 5+ years.

For context, the Canadian dollar spend almost the entire time from late 2010 through early 2013 at or above the US dollar in value. Hence the reason the cap grew from $56.8M in 2009-10 to what was supposed to be over $70M in 2012-13 (and was reduced by the lockout). I know the difference in numbers doesn't look large when you express them in billions, but a $0.300-billion ($300M) drop in revenue equates to a $5M drop in the salary cap.

[Troy Loney]

I'm thinking some people here haven't taken an International Economics Course.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I guess I underestimated the amount of revenue the NHL gets from Canada.

The confidential document shows that the six Canadian NHL clubs [in 2012] accounted for about 33 per cent of the $1.2 billion (U.S.) in league ticket revenue. In 2007-08, Canada's six teams represented 31 per cent.

[tfrizz]

Current exchange rate is 1.12 CD to 1 USD

Correct. Which, in turn, means that the NHL loses roughly US$0.11 for every CAD$1.00 of revenue generated. So if the Leafs suddenly pulled in CAD$500M in revenue, it's only worth US$449M.

I'm thinking some people here haven't taken an International Economics Course.

Yup. Inversely, if the NHL suddenly saw a spike in revenue out of Europe (assuming Euros) then it'd be fantastic news because the Euro is valued at about 25% more than the USD right now (ie: US$1.25 = €1).

[Idoit40fans]

The strength of the dollar doesn't matter. The cap is going up. Its going to continue going up. The strength of those dollars on the cap is irrelevant if the number keeps increasing.