The Ryan Johansen Saga

[tfrizz]

http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/con ... ffers.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently, the latest number they've given the Jackets is "2 years, $12 million", meaning they're asking for twice what the Jackets are offering. Looking more and more like someone's going to be sitting out a season.

[columbia]

Or heading to Russia.

I get the idea of self worth, but at a certain point you have work within the system and then cash in as a UFA.

[FLPensFan]

Overhardt has apparently come down to about 2 years, 9mil total. I think 2 years, 8mil total is fair. But, there is now another wrinkle in all of this, which could very well end up being the next stumbling block. If it is only a 2 year deal, Johansen will have arbitration rights at the end of the deal. If Overhardt goes down to 2yrs/8mil total, I would fully expect him to counter with the contract as 3mil for year one, and 5mil for year two. Why? Because as an RFA with arbitration rights, his qualifying offer has to be at his salary from the last year of his previous contract, so it is very advantageous for his contract to have a higher year 2 salary.

That's about the only way I see it getting done. Columbus gets him for 2 years, 8mil total, AAV of 4mil a year, but have it with the 3/5 split. Some concessions need to be made on both sides.

[Desiato]

I get the idea of self worth, but at a certain point you have work within the system and then cash in as a UFA.

That's purely a fan POV. His priority should be financial security for he and his family. Besides, as a free agent, contract negotiation is working within the system.

[Troy Loney]

is he an RFA?

[MRandall25]

Yes, he's an RFA for the next 4 years or something like that.

[Troy Loney]

not sure why some center needy team woudln't come in with an offer sheet.

[Beveridge]

not sure why some center needy team woudln't come in with an offer sheet.

I don't think he has enough years to be offered sheet.

[FLPensFan]

not sure why some center needy team woudln't come in with an offer sheet.

Because he wants too much money. His agent compares Ryan to guys like Stamkos, P.Kane, and can't remember the 3rd. The difference is, all three of his comparables put up good numbers in all 3 years of their entry level deal. Johansen did not put up good numbers the 1st two years, only the last year. So, are you going to pay a guy 5-6mil a year after 1 good season, and risk that one season wasn't a fluke?

There is a lot more at play here, namely, it is very rare, unless you are a stud like Crosby, Stamkos, Kane, etc, for a young star to get a huge contract after the Entry Level deal. It just doesn't happen. This is similar to PK Subban, in that before he got his deal this year, he wanted a big $$$ deal after his ELC expired, and Montreal didn't cave. Ryan O'Reilly is another one. A bit of a different situation, but, Colorado didn't want to lose him so it matched his offer sheet for 5mil. Then O'Reilly wanted a lot more money after that contract expired. He put up numbers, but not enough to get the kind of $$$ he wanted. Once you let one guy get away with it, becomes a basis for someone else.....O'Reilly did it, so I think my client should get the same or more. It's not just about the Blue Jackets at this point. Columbus knows that if they cave, they are going to set a new precedent for all expiring ELCs.

I think Johansen is not going to be a fluke, but still, in the cap day and age, you can't take that risk.

[MRandall25]

not sure why some center needy team woudln't come in with an offer sheet.

Because Columbus would probably match anything below $6 mil, I think, and why would a team give up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and $6 mil in cap?

Even if they go to a more realistic $5.5m/yr offer sheet, they're still giving up the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder.

[Troy Loney]

I guess if i'm somebody like the predators or coyotes and could really use a #1 center, i'm at least kicking the tires on that. I wouldn't be opposed to giving him $6-7M per year.

[MRandall25]

So you would kill your future for 1 guy who has only hit 60 points once?

Spoiler:

Playing devil's advocate, since I like Johansen's game, but I don't think he's worth that money yet

[columbia]

Killing your future?

Considering the expected value of a 1, 2 and 3 pick....sending an offer sheet to him isn't the worst idea.

[Troy Loney]

So you would kill your future for 1 guy who has only hit 60 points once?

Spoiler:

Playing devil's advocate, since I like Johansen's game, but I don't think he's worth that money yet

I think he can be an impact player, I think middling teams like nashville and phoenix would do well to try and add that sort of talent at what would probably be market value and mid first round draft picks.

Guys like Johansen don't get on the market too often. I know it didn't really work out well for toronto, but if it's a team with a decent roster that needs to add impact players, it makes sense to me.

[Kraftster]

I agree with Troy. If you think he's worth the money, the draft pick compensation should do little to dissuade you.

[Idoit40fans]

Im not sure he'd sign a $6-7 million a year offer sheet unless it was short term...then in a year or two you're in the same situation columbus is in now. The player and his agent are pretty drastically over aluing him at this point. I really dont understand why he wouldnt play for 2 years 3 mil per and earn a contract. If he gets like 90-100 goals over a three year period, hes going to get the money hes asking for.

If i were a gm, id want nothing to do with a player this unrealistic.

[Idoit40fans]

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/agent ... t-demands/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lol

[Kraftster]

“Don’t you have to actually earn it at some point?” one agent said. “How many players have had one good year and we never hear from them again? We never learn anything as agents if nobody teaches us. And for the good of the game, management has to be able to do its job. How does it benefit any of us if teams misallocate resources?”

That's a dumb comment. Who is trying to benefit the "us" that he's referring to?

One agent did concede that it’s difficult to comment on the Johansen situation without knowing the internal discussions that have taken place between the player and the agent. “We don’t know whether the player is reacting to a position the team might have taken,” and agent said. “If the team proposed two years at $2.5 million a year, then the agent is probably going to come back with a proposal that is out in left field. Then both sides realize they’re being childish and roll up their sleeves to get a deal done.”

This has been my thought too. Sometimes you send an offer that you know is too high/low to send a message.

[FLPensFan]

When the message has your client missing training camp, you are sending the wrong message.

[Troy Loney]

Im not sure he'd sign a $6-7 million a year offer sheet unless it was short term...then in a year or two you're in the same situation columbus is in now. The player and his agent are pretty drastically over aluing him at this point. I really dont understand why he wouldnt play for 2 years 3 mil per and earn a contract. If he gets like 90-100 goals over a three year period, hes going to get the money hes asking for.

If i were a gm, id want nothing to do with a player this unrealistic.

Oh, i misunderstood the situation. I thought columbus wanted a bridge deal and he wanted a long term contract.

[meow]

Im not sure he'd sign a $6-7 million a year offer sheet unless it was short term...then in a year or two you're in the same situation columbus is in now. The player and his agent are pretty drastically over aluing him at this point. I really dont understand why he wouldnt play for 2 years 3 mil per and earn a contract. If he gets like 90-100 goals over a three year period, hes going to get the money hes asking for.

If i were a gm, id want nothing to do with a player this unrealistic.

Oh, i misunderstood the situation. I thought columbus wanted a bridge deal and he wanted a long term contract.

CBJ offered 3 separate contracts of 2, 6 and 8 years, all for very fair AAVs.

[slappybrown]

Im not sure he'd sign a $6-7 million a year offer sheet unless it was short term...then in a year or two you're in the same situation columbus is in now. The player and his agent are pretty drastically over aluing him at this point. I really dont understand why he wouldnt play for 2 years 3 mil per and earn a contract. If he gets like 90-100 goals over a three year period, hes going to get the money hes asking for.

If i were a gm, id want nothing to do with a player this unrealistic.

Oh, i misunderstood the situation. I thought columbus wanted a bridge deal and he wanted a long term contract.

CBJ offered 3 separate contracts of 2, 6 and 8 years, all for very fair AAVs.

What were the AAV on the 6 and 8 year deals

[MRandall25]

John Davidson released his numbers at CBJ media day:

$6M over 2yrs, $32M over 6 yrs, $46M over 8.

$6m per for 6 year deal and just under 6 on the 8 year (had to find the post from CTONPRC)

[slappybrown]

I wouldn't sign any of those if I'm Johansen. If he wants 8 years that number has to start with a 7.

Nor would I offer him 8 years if were CBJ.

I agree with the people above who would offer sheet him if I were another team. I'd trade those picks for Johansen straight up and I know I'm getting him locked up.

[tfrizz]

I wouldn't sign any of those if I'm Johansen. If he wants 8 years that number has to start with a 7.

Nor would I offer him 8 years if were CBJ.

I agree with the people above who would offer sheet him if I were another team. I'd trade those picks for Johansen straight up and I know I'm getting him locked up.

Nobody is going to offer sheet Johansen because this is a much their battle as it is Columbus's. If they cave and throw money at Johansen, it sets the bar for RFAs coming off their ELC with one good season. His first two seasons were quite pedestrian, and he was even made a healthy scratch in the 2013 AHL playoffs.