Foster Hewitt Conf. Final: (1) St. Louis vs. (3) Los Angeles

[mikey287]

In this thread, please discuss the playoff matchup between: (1) St. Louis (http://www.letsgopens.com/scripts/phpBB ... 4#p2791911" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) and (3) Los Angeles (http://www.letsgopens.com/scripts/phpBB ... 4#p2791842" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)

They will face off in a seven game series that will be voted on only by the league's managers (asst GMs included) via a private message to me.

Please state your cases particular to this series regarding matchups, advantages, disadvantages, etc. - obviously, if you typed up some regular season notes about your team, they would be applicable here, but if you want to state that how your team would matchup well against your opponent, that would be encouraged.

Previously:
St. Louis defeated Iceland in 6: http://www.letsgopens.com/scripts/phpBB ... =6&t=64504" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Los Angeles defeated Seattle in 7: http://www.letsgopens.com/scripts/phpBB ... =6&t=64505" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In two days time (9/12), we'll have a vote to decide the series victor.

[meow]

:starts with typical pre-series cliches and compliments: We know LA is a good defensive group. We are going to try and make them play in their zone as much as possible. Their goalies like to handle the puck so we will minimize the dump-ins or put them in smart areas when needed. It'll be a good series. We looks forward to the challenge.

Offense: LA has a plethora of defensive forwards (Jefe, what is a plethora?), which will be tough on our skilled forwards. St. Louis' major edge will be the heavies. Can Nielson, Bergeron, Toews, and Read hold up against Vanek, Okposo, Oshie, Crosby, and Ryan? In our home games, I plan on trying to get the McClement line out against the Stepan line as much as possible and keep Crosby away from Bergeron a bit. We certainly are not going to skip 87's line in the rotation to avoid the match-up, but when feasable (icings, poor LA changes, killed penalties). We aren't concerned about keeping any line away from any D pairing because none of LA's D scare us. Chara's game has dropped off in the last year. Staal took liberties against Sid in the last NHL playoffs, but they were all shots to Sid's back after Staal already got his doors blown off.

Defense: This is our biggest edge. Our does LA plan on getting the puck out of their own zone? Not real physical, which we are hoping will be a big plus for our forward group. St. Louis' D should more than hold their own against LA's forward group. Our physical D are on the right side. LA's scoring wingers are on the left side.

Goaltending: I'm a big fan of Lehtonen's skill set, but he does not have a lot of big game experience. In 9 NHL seasons, he only has 8 playoff starts (showing an abysmal 87.3 save percentage) and only 2 Olympic starts. Quick, on the other hand, has 11 Finals starts, 8 of which are wins. Also, 76 playoff starts with a 45 - 31 record. Huge, huge advantage in net for St. Louis.

Coaching: This match-up goes a bit deeper than NHL coaching experience. Looking at the big picture, Julien and Boudreau both have won 2 championships - Boudreau with a ECHL and a AHL; Julien with a QMJHL and a NHL. Boudreau's playoff stumbles cannot be completely burdened upon him. Was any coach going to get that Washington team to win? I don't think so. His thumb print isn't fully on the Anaheim team, but his regular season stellar goaltending melted down in the playoffs (to no fault of his own), the team advanced about as far as most expected them to. My biggest hope is that Julien's team doesn't get down a game or two and start is typical complaining, poor us, everyone is against crap. We get it Julien. You coach your teams to push the envelop and you cry when it doesn't go your way. We get it.

Overall, we are excited to see how this one plays out. Both teams are assembled quite differently. The true merit of a team is in how much you can force the other team to play your style and avoid playing the other team's style. I expect St. Louis to spend the lion's share of each game in the offensive zone. Can LA hold up and sneak enough by Quick and Co™ to make it a series? We will see.

[Avyran]

Meow hit the matchups pretty well. It's gonna be a fun series.

Everything I've said about my team still holds up here: physicality & defensive responsibility. Thus, I'll just go into specifics.

Crosby is great; however, two of the biggest players who have shut down Crosby are on my team = Bergeron & Chara. Two other players that defeated Crosby's team this time around - M. Staal & Stepan - are also on the team. While I like St. Louis's second line, I don't think they gave Crosby the cushion that a Malkin line does, so the focus is gonna be shutting down Crosby. And again, I unfortunately have to ask: can we trust Crosby to actually be healthy? I'm actually confident in all 3 of my top lines (with Toews & Backes, Stepan & Kesler, Staal/Bergeron/Read) to handle them, but the 3rd line will be the main matchup line. I'm not overly concerned about the rest of the team: Vanek tends to disappear at times (see his stats vs. New York last year), as does Neal. Okposo is untested in the playoffs. Stastny is good, but all of my centers are better (IMO). Their 3rd & 4th lines are good, but there is no real line to match against for my team unless you consider Palat/Toews/Backes as a matchup line. To quote a line about the 2013 playoffs between the Pens & Bruins... "Penguins forwards Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla, Pascal Dupuis and James Neal had scored between them 28 goals and 64 points during the first two rounds, but against the Bruins [the entire team was] outscored 12–2 with Dupuis recording a single assist." Unfortunately for St. Louis, two of their top 6 are from that Pens team. ... God, that series sucked.

Defensively, I consider it a wash, actually. I am a HUGE fan of Ekman-Larsson, and he'll be trouble for us. However, the rest of the group will probably not. Hamonic, like I said in the earlier series for St. Louis, is outmatched on the top line (IMO). He has no playoff experience except for one series, when he had 24 penalty minuts. Bieksa (injury prone + averaging over 100 penalty minutes a year) & Gudas (207 penalty minutes 2 years ago & 152 last year, respectively) are loose cannons that will give Chara plenty of time & chances to blast in goals on the power play. Brodin will be good, but is not there yet: only 2 assists last year in the playoffs in 2 series with the Wild. Alzner's a quality player, though, haha. For my team, Chara has gone down a bit, but is still a very, very good player. E. Johnson, meanwhile, is finally coming into his potential. The rest are nothing special, but nothing horrible either. I'd guess Julien would swap J. Braun & J. Johnson depending on need.

Goaltending is their biggest advantage, I agree. Quick will likely steal a game or two. However, last year, he did not have as stellar of a postseason as he had before. His Save Percentage was only .911 (vs. .946 & .934 the previous two), and his GAA was 2.58 (again, vs. 1.41 and 1.86). I still consider him among the best in the league, but maybe he is not as elite as we think? I dunno; I still really like Quick, but he was not as elite as Lundqvist or others last year. Again, for me, we'll swap goaltenders depending on need - if their forecheck is REALLY giving us trouble (I don't consider their lineup overly quick outside of Crosby), we'll put in Smith to be potentially the best puck-mover in goal and ease that pressure.

In terms of coaching, I think we have a big advantage, because again, we have a coach who is good at shutting down opponents & their heavy-hitters. Julien knows Bergeron & Chara incredibly well; he also knows Crosby very well. He'll get the matchups desired. Boudreau will likely be outcoached, I think; I like him, but he is a players' coach like Bylsma was. I don't know if he has the ability to outwit Julien at this time.

It comes down to whether my team can shut down Crosby's line. Thankfully for me, I have players on every line with Selke quality (Toews/Backes, Kesler, Bergeron/Staal) as well as a defender & a coach who limited the Pens to 2 goals in a full series.

The playoffs are a different beast, and my team has an offensive core that shines in it. My defense, meanwhile, is much more suited for the grindy, physical nature that the playoffs has become (I was gonna call it clutch & grab hockey, but I hate that style of hockey ).

[mikey287]

Can I get two more votes here as well...? Last call is today.

[count2infinity]

oh...didn't realize voting was going on. I'll PM you soon.

[mikey287]

As we conclude the games of the Foster Hewitt Conference, I open with a tribute. Words that have been heard nearly every Saturday night in my residences for years and years...

Hello, Canada, and hockey fans in the United States and Newfoundland...

The Los Angeles experience would outduel the St. Louis firepower early in game 1. The Blues would fall behind early on a Zdeno Chara power play goal. The Kings would not relinquish the lead for the rest of the regularly-scheduled time. The Kings were able to get ahead and roll their defensively conscious lines to stymie the very game Sidney Crosby. However, behind Crosby, there wasn't a lot of help. The Blues seemed listless and the Kings would take advantage of their sloppy play. Jonathan Quick made 46 saves, but it was far from enough to get the Blues into this one.

Game 2 picked up right where Game 1 had left off. Jonathan Toews setup two first period goals and that led to an early timeout from portly Blues coach Bruce Boudreau. The period would run out no worse for wear in St. Louis, but the second period saw a drowsy Thomas Vanek get puckjacked by Marc Staal which led a 3-on-2 rush that was cashed with gusto. As the chancey Blues created more space between their forwards and their defensemen, the savvy Kings continued to take advantage of the Blues' dwindling interest...Quick received a mercy pull, while Kari Lehtonen casually turned aside all challengers. Blues fans left the arena that night justifiably unsure if they'd see their team again this season...

Back to Los Angeles for game 3, the Blues were an angry bunch. Radko Gudas all but jumped a chatty Devante Smith-Pelly which switched on some ornery milling around. It set a tone for a physical game that woke up the Blues gang. James Neal and Vladimir Sobotka would nearly come to blows later in the period. Sidney Crosby masterfully picked up a chip n' chase play and left Erik Johnson questioning his career choice in the process. The spark generated from the captain proved contagious. Each of St. Louis' top-three centers would find twine and Jonathan Quick would stupefy the once-dominant Kings.

Game 4 started out with tenseness. Both teams seemed to embrace the continued truculence. Distracted by the shenanigans, the game was sloppy and unkempt. Jonathan Toews and David Backes emerged marginally from the smoldering cesspool of "why I oughtas" and disparaging aspersions. It was not pretty but it was key, as the Kings would emerge in a game where the highlight tape was as long as both coach's hair.

With a change in venue, both teams seemed to exhibit more discretion and sportsmanship. However, it would do little shake the sleep from the rheumy-eyed wingers of the St. Louis jazz ensemble. Bobby Ryan, T.J. Oshie, Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo and James Neal, all cordoned off effectively by sturdy backchecking. The series seemed over until Crosby had tied it late with the goalie streaking for the bench to exchange himself for a skater. It was scored out of frustration more than anything, a rare slapshot offering from the bruised captain. The goal would come to strike up a lengthy game, but the pace was not overly high...just flashes of the skill and pace that teams were capable of. Quick and Lehtonen dueled long into the night - their work at times applauded by even partial patrons. The game was finally solved by midnight rambler Ondrej Palat who accepted a redirected outlet pass from Erik Johnson, it was adroitly tipped by Jonathan Toews and it stung a staggered defensive duo late in the third overtime period to truncate the series...

LA 5-2
LA 7-0
StL 4-1
LA 2-1
LA 2-1 (3 OT)

Los Angeles wins in 5.

Three stars: Kari Lehtonen, Jonathan Toews, Sidney Crosby

[count2infinity]

wow... I voted completely the other way. I said St. Louis in 6 (game 6 being an OT game).

[meow]

Didn't see this coming

[Beveridge]

Didn't see this coming

LA beat the best team in the league by suspect voting, taking out an inferior team in 2 less games is not surprising.

[mikey287]

Yeah, I was a touch surprised by the vote as well. But it was strongly in favor of Los Angeles. And honestly, there's a good case for it. The Kings have a lot of playoff-tested players, minus their goalie. The Blues - who had great success in the regular year - have a fair amount of playoff flakes, minus their goalie. With respect to meow's very good team, I am happy to see that the #1 regular season rank didn't just carry through because they were the #1 rank.

[Avyran]

Add me to the people surprised by the vote, though I do agree with the ultimate result. I expected people to give more credit to Ekman-Larsson (I view him to be better than Chara atm) & Quick, but I guess not?

Once again, Mikey, thanks for the great write-up & the work you're doing on this.

[MRandall25]

Just an FYI, I'll be running the NHL 14 sim after the Finals.