Explain to me like I'm 5 thread

[Kaizer]

How do you make sandwitch

[mikey287]

Like previous advanced stats, like save pct. (known more as efficiency at the time), ice time and plus/minus, some of these advanced stats will be discarded and some will be improved upon...because we're living in the moment right now - and the moments go by slow when they're counted, it seems like a really great new thing. But in a wider scope, you got to think some aspects of them will be laughed at in 5, 10, 20 years. "Can you believe they counted every shot as being equal?!?!" Plus/minus went through a similar honeymoon, then trial, then marginalization...not saying it will happen with all these new gadgets, certainly, but it's important to take a step back and realize your place in hockey history..

[shmenguin]

Scoring chances should be an official stat (it's subjective, but so are assists in basketball). And thusly, scoring chance save % (and maybe non scoring chance shot on goal save %) should be an official stat.

Even if it's imperfect, I think, in the long run, it would tell you more than any other goalie stat, IMO.

[shafnutz05]

I agree. I think Save PCT is somewhat worthwhile, but it does factor in the wide-open desperation shots from the point, etc. It certainly is a reflection of the defensive system/talent in place.

[Idoit40fans]

All scoring chances aren't created equal either though. I'd rather go with sv% just because its not subjective.

[columbia]

I don't have a dog in the hunt, but wins seems like the stat of last resort.

[Staggy]

I think utilizing in some way scoring chances for and against a player's team while he's on the ice would tell a better story than Corsi in the long run. It would still be raw and require a lot context, but at least it would factor in the quality of shots or chances generated.

[shmenguin]

All scoring chances aren't created equal either though. I'd rather go with sv% just because its not subjective.

It's subjective and inconsistent, but if it's tallied without bias, it would even out in the long run.

[shmenguin]

Corsi seems to generally do a good job at what it sets out to do.

[columbia]

As long as people don't start making predictions based upon it.

[mikey287]

I don't have a dog in the hunt, but wins seems like the stat of last resort.

As I've learned and studied the game over the last several years, I've come to realize that wins is the stat that best accounts for all the factors that occur in a game. Like the others, it is not perfect and has its own influences...but at the end of the day, this best measures the timeliness of goals disallowed. Which is a big thing for goaltenders. Games aren't won on saves, they are lost on goals allowed.

[JS©]

Thats the best description i've seen for Corsi. Its entirely accurate and also explains why I don't really care for it.

Good God do I hate corsi. Not so much I don't think it isn't useful, mainly because of some of these frat boy Penguin bloggers on twitter. Don't like a player? HIS CORSI SAYS HES GOOD SO EL OH EL OH EL AT YOUR OPINION!! I can't even count how many people I've unfollowed since the playoffs started due to the endless graphs and spreadsheets these people post with "I told you so attitudes." I'm not paid to analyze that crap so I don't care. Send it to the coaches. Means nothing to me.

that's exactly where I was going with it. There seems to be a growing "corsi wins lol" crowd that have completely disregarded the eye test for a few charts.

[bhaw]

I guess it's better than ROI being used to determine how good a player is. That made me want to hurt people.

[shmenguin]

I don't have a dog in the hunt, but wins seems like the stat of last resort.

As I've learned and studied the game over the last several years, I've come to realize that wins is the stat that best accounts for all the factors that occur in a game. Like the others, it is not perfect and has its own influences...but at the end of the day, this best measures the timeliness of goals disallowed. Which is a big thing for goaltenders. Games aren't won on saves, they are lost on goals allowed.

You're too deep in your own head with this one.

[mikey287]

Saves have limited or negligible value to a game and to a team. Goals hold all the value, for and against. From a player's perspective and a coach's perspective, I believe this to be obvious. Goals (for and against, again) lead the way for momentum shifts. While a highlight reel save may perk up ears now and again, they have limited impact on a team and it is short-lived. If it is a result of slumber, the opponent hitting the post or missing an empty net chance will have the same effect.

Timeliness of goals allowed or goals disallowed is where the value is. Marc-Andre Fleury - too often surrenders a goal on the first shot. Changes the complexion of the game, changes the emotion, changes the dynamic. Giving up a goal on the 11th shot (score is the same in both instances) is much different. Losing sight of that, loses site of context and nuance. Even if the goalies with "iffy stats" or whatever, there are still allusions to what I'm talking about. What did everyone always say about Grant Fuhr: "he never gave up the next one." That's longform of "timeliness" - Fuhr didn't have the save pct. but he won the games. "But he had Gretzky!" - Got it, and Fleury has Crosby and Malkin. We've witnessed the impact of timely saves, these same occurrences happened. And Gretzky got himself into some sticky situations and some tight affairs...'84 vs. the Isles, '87 vs. Philadelphia.

Timeliness: Barrasso in '93 vs. the Isles. Soul-crushing goals at the most inopportune times -> one of the bigger upsets in recent history.

We've seen it happen and we're usually on the wrong side of it.

Hasek was another one. All the great regular season success, but really, the playoffs were a little bit tough. He had times in Buffalo where he'd just give up one that he really had to have. In between, he made 25 five-alarm saves. It didn't do him one bit of good. He always let that long wristshot, high blocker, eat him up at the worst time. Right down to his last shot as a Sabre...opposite side, it went low-glove, IIRC, but a wrist shot from outside the top of the circles ended his career in Buffalo.

Jonathan Quick deals in timely saves. He's a winner on merit. That's why I'm so high on his 2012 run, almost zero untimely or soul-crushing goals. It was a brilliant performance.

From a coach's perspective, it takes a lot to overcome a bad goal. It costs your bench a lot of mental energy and even physical energy. A great save might get some stick taps from the boys, but it has limited real value. And the way a lot of modern defending is and how goalies play, save pct. is just a compilation junk stat. It can suggest one thing or another here and there...but it's not necessary. I'm not saying it's completely obsolete, but it says more about a team than it does about an individual more often than not.

[pcm]

I've come to realize that wins is the stat that best accounts for all the factors that occur in a game.

Is this what you tell your players inbetween periods?

[pcm]

Agreed on the timeliness of saves. I would count GA in timely situations (when the score is tied or close/ at the end of periods / right after a goal / etc) as the best possible goalie stat. But nobody's done that yet...

[mikey287]

Timely situations cannot be universally defined. Some pillars exist, but factors change game to game.

[shmenguin]

last year, fleury and nabokov were top 5 in wins. this is just one of an endless amount of examples that should give you the creeps about that stat.

some metrics are flawed. and some are really really really flawed. i agree with the idea of "timely saves" and all that. but it's not measurable by the "W" column.

save % in the last 10 minutes of a 1 goal game vs. overall save % would be interesting.

[meow]

I am still in the thought that there is no single goalie stat that can showcase how good a goalie actually is. Every stat has big positives and big negatives.

[count2infinity]

I am still in the thought that there is no single goalie stat that can showcase how good a goalie actually is. Every stat has big positives and big negatives.

I think that's why it's so important to look at multiple stats rather than just one. I wonder if they can try to make a stat like WAR in baseball for goalies.

[Beveridge]

last year, fleury and nabokov were top 5 in wins. this is just one of an endless amount of examples that should give you the creeps about that stat.

some metrics are flawed. and some are really really really flawed. i agree with the idea of "timely saves" and all that. but it's not measurable by the "W" column.

save % in the last 10 minutes of a 1 goal game vs. overall save % would be interesting.

GTC For/Against: Goalie Timeliness Corsi

For
Saves Made: first shots of periods, first and last minute of each period, penalty kill, tied or 1 goal game in 3rd period, overtime, within 1-2 minutes of any goal being scored

Against
Goals Allowed: first shots of periods, first and last minute of each period, power play, tied or 1 goal game in 3rd period, overtime, two goal leads (at any time), 1 goal deficit (at any time), within 1-2 minutes of any goal being scored

If ESPN can come up with the QBR, LGP can get in on that stat creation metric.

I'm sure there are others that would be timely in nature (good or bad). This could actually be a fun discussion.

[Idoit40fans]

I think its pointless to look at stats at all unless you play fantasy sports. If you're at least a casual fan you can watch the game and see who is good and who isn't.

[count2infinity]

[She'sTheFastest]

So, what was the final decision on the Spider Man action figures?!

Also, for the person asking about how to make sandwitch, I wrote a list on how to make grilled cheese back in 3rd grade. Let me check my notes.