A Hot goalie Isn't a Better Goalie

[Digitalgypsy66]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-h ... er-goalie/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because the goalie is a team’s last line of defense, it’s no surprise that strong performance in net is incredibly important to winning a hockey game. During the regular season, save percentage (the generally accepted shorthand measure of goaltending effectiveness) explains a higher proportion of team performance than any other fundamental factor1 in hockey.2 In the playoffs, the emphasis on goaltending only intensifies; save percentage is easily the most important determinant of a team’s goals-per-game differential in the postseason.3 A hot goalie really is the key to a successful playoff run.

But herein lies a great paradox: Despite goaltending’s outsize impact on the outcomes of hockey games, it’s extremely hard to say exactly which goalies are truly good or bad at their jobs.

[mikey287]

@ last line: No, it's not that mystical with proper talent evaluation. It's the over-reliance on statistics for talent evaluation that is confusing to people who cannot evaluate talent.

[meow]

The number of people that write and speak as if they can properly evaluate goaltending talent < the number of people that can properly evaluate goaltending talent

[mikey287]

[DelPen]

A better goalie isn't always the better goalie. Chris Osgood is horrible yet won a cup.

[viva la ben]

Manon Rheaume is proof enough

[dodint]

Was doing some reading on Rheaume a few months ago. Her physical attractiveness is cancelled out by her enthusiasm for religion. Religious people are nice enough to marry (I'm married to a Catholic) but they're really unenthusiastic sex symbols.

[mikey287]

What an interesting turn this thread could take early on...

[Great58]

The number of people that write and speak as if they can properly evaluate goaltending talent < the number of people that can properly evaluate goaltending talent

Shirley you mean that the other way. More people claim to know how to do it than actually can.

[columbia]

Religious people are nice enough to marry (I'm married to a Catholic) but they're really unenthusiastic sex symbols.

How does PDO factor in to this?

[MRandall25]

The number of people that write and speak as if they can properly evaluate goaltending talent < the number of people that can properly evaluate goaltending talent

Some solid maths there

[columbia]

meow's statement seems factually correct.

Part of it is that there are way too many intangibles at play. When was the last time you saw anyone pumping Holtby's tires? That was happening quite a bit, a few years ago.

[mikey287]

And it should continue. He's a good goalie. That's where the disconnect happens. People are led by stats, that's not how you tell who is good and who is not. There's a sustainability factor involved. Roman Cechmanek and Tim Thomas are good examples. Sure, their nonsense behind good teams is one thing, but put them behind a team that doesn't lock it down and it's complete chaos...

Braden Holtby, while he might not light the world on fire every year (did any goalie that had a long career?), it's a goalie that GMs will want because of the ability to evaluate talent...Holtby could be an above average starter in this league no question, and his upside is greater than that...

[meow]

The number of people that write and speak as if they can properly evaluate goaltending talent < the number of people that can properly evaluate goaltending talent

Stratch that, reverse it.

[Rylan]

And it should continue. He's a good goalie. That's where the disconnect happens. People are led by stats, that's not how you tell who is good and who is not. There's a sustainability factor involved. Roman Cechmanek and Tim Thomas are good examples. Sure, their nonsense behind good teams is one thing, but put them behind a team that doesn't lock it down and it's complete chaos...

Braden Holtby, while he might not light the world on fire every year (did any goalie that had a long career?), it's a goalie that GMs will want because of the ability to evaluate talent...Holtby could be an above average starter in this league no question, and his upside is greater than that...

Define long. Cause if we are talking a decade long career then...*cough* Ken Dryden *cough*

[mikey287]

It was originally written as just career then I thought about Dryden and then added "long" to it to cancel that out...*cough*

[Rylan]

lol