WW XXIV: An Ode to lycanthropy (Game Thread)

[Sam's Drunk Dog]

The vote has to be either shad or cbear. Based on what they are saying they both can't be green. They could both be red but that is probably slim. While we might vote out a green here we're guaranteed to get a red by vote tomorrow at least. Since I rather lose the seer over the angel I'm going with cbear absent other information.

Mod cbear yellow

[MWB]

Sorry, for some reason I thought you had only one vote when you made that first claim. At six, makes more sense.

[canaan]

Code: Select all

Voting:
shad  - 3
cbear - 2

[MWB]

Think shaf is the way to go. Vote wrong, we're screwed either way. Lose both angel and seer quickly. So what's the best case? We get this one right, we have seer and hidden angel. The seer can provide us with info. We believe shaf and he's right, we've got the angel and hidden seer. That doesn't help as much. Helps if seer survives long enough. So if its a toss up, I'm voting for shaf.

[relantel]

i tend to agree that the odds of them both being red are slimmest, and both being green are even slimmer, as we would have found a way to a third name.

Fortunately, no matter the result we learn something if the choice is those two.

[shafnutz05]

I have already laid out my case. There are several holes in CBear3's favor, not to mention coincidences that help him (coming out as the seer as opposed to a double angel claim, seeing Kraftster night 1, etc). It would really, really suck if you guys voted the angel out on Day 2, and let him go for another day. Kill me tomorrow if I'm wrong.

Not to mention there is absolutely zero guarantee (speaking from CBear's perspective) that the theoretical angel could even protect him tonight. I'm obviously not going to divulge how much leeway I get with my protects, but it's a total toss-up.

[Letang Is The Truth]

I really don't know what else to say. CBear is most assuredly not the green seer.

The second random.org vote doesn't work out in his favor, right? So what does he do? He role-claims seer since I already came out as the angel. Since he miraculously made it through the night, he "sees" me, and now he has a chance to get the village to vote the angel out during the day time, since they obviously don't feel they have a good shot at night.

At the end of the day, it's coming down to one of us, but allowing the reds to have the village vote out the angel (which is a gift from the heavens) would be really, really bad.

sorry if this has been discussed i didnt get a chance to type this up before something urgent came up

this is how i see it. i think the cbear is the only vote that makes sense here. the only way shad can die, is if we vote him out and its awfully convenient we havent heard from the real angel yet and the only two people we have heard that cbear has seen are a dead person and someone who has role-claimed and no one to the contrary. we vote out cbear, he is red, good. we vote out cbear, he is green, crap, shad is red, we vote him out, good. one way or the other cbear dies (either today via vote or tonight via kill if shad cant protect him if he is the real angel?) we can mitigate our damage by voting him out and potentially saving the angel.

[CBear3]

I have already laid out my case. There are several holes in CBear3's favor, not to mention coincidences that help him (coming out as the seer as opposed to a double angel claim, seeing Kraftster night 1, etc). It would really, really suck if you guys voted the angel out on Day 2, and let him go for another day. Kill me tomorrow if I'm wrong.

It would be sad to kill the angel on day 2, but there's no danger of that happening since you're not him. There's no holes in my story, since I am the seer, there are coincidences though because they were obvious plays. And your case was to twist the timeline into a lie

Not to mention there is absolutely zero guarantee (speaking from CBear's perspective) that the theoretical angel could even protect him tonight. I'm obviously not going to divulge how much leeway I get with my protects, but it's a total toss-up.

You're right, there's no guarantee I'll be saved tonight, but you don't have a say in it regardless.

Here's your choices:
A) You can listen to Shaf and vote the seer off, let Shaf kill another blue tonight, and then have to off Shaf tomorrow leaving the village down two.
B) Kill Shaf now, they kill a blue overnight, and we get a chance to find a second red tomorrow. The village could be up one if I do a good job seeing, or we get a good read on people.

[CBear3]

Sorry I'm a bit wordy, but the deadline is when I'll be stumbling into the office tomorrow, and the baby girls keep me busy in the evenings. This may be my last chance to keep all three of the village's assets intact.

[obhave]

I agree with LITT in that CBear is the way to go today. I am going to training a student again tonight, so I'm going to put my vote in now.

lynch CBear.

[canaan]

Code: Select all

Voting:
shad  - 3
cbear - 3

[CBear3]

sorry if this has been discussed i didnt get a chance to type this up before something urgent came up

this is how i see it. i think the cbear is the only vote that makes sense here. the only way shad can die, is if we vote him out and its awfully convenient we havent heard from the real angel yet and the only two people we have heard that cbear has seen are a dead person and someone who has role-claimed and no one to the contrary. we vote out cbear, he is red, good. we vote out cbear, he is green, crap, shad is red, we vote him out, good. one way or the other cbear dies (either today via vote or tonight via kill if shad cant protect him if he is the real angel?) we can mitigate our damage by voting him out and potentially saving the angel.

That's assuming the real angel can't make duplicate saves, and that's assuming he saved me last night at all.
It would have been a gamble, but he (or she) would know shaf wasn't the real angel and so would the reds obviously. They'd figure the real angel would save me so they'd have to look elsewhere, meaning the real angel wouldn't have to use up a save on me. It's a bit like the poison scene in Princess Bride, but its possibility.

[Letang Is The Truth]

theres a lot of conjecture in there.

[Kaizer]

if we kill shaf and he turns up red, the seer is cbear, theres no danger to the seer. if hes the angel, cbear is red, and the real seer is still good.

if we kill cbear and hes red, were also doing fine, and the seer is still unknown. if he's the seer, were up **** creek without a seer.

lynch shaf.

[CBear3]

And a lot of conjecture in assuming I can't be saved, an idea a red masquerading as the angel first put forth.

[Rylan]

I'm starting to feel like this confusion is exactly what the reds want. I'm starting to feel like we let the vig to shoot shad tonight and deal with the consequences of what happened tomorrow.

I don't think this needs to be done this phase. If cbear offers nothing substantial (or dies) we can go from there.

[Troy Loney]

what we know is one of either shaf or cbear is red. I'd be much more devastating to kill the angel than the seer right now. So unless an angel comes out and says kill shaf in order to get the seer one more night. I say we have to kill cbear.

If you think the seer is less important, wouldn't it be more essential for the seer to come out and give cbear up (if he's the one lying)? Like you said, we're between a red and a green, it seems.

The seer isn't very valuable if he's already outed.

[DocEmrick]

Come on guys, go with Shad. I think I see what's going on here.

[Troy Loney]

I'm not voting for shad unless the real angel comes out. There's no reason to stay hidden at this point.

lynch cbear

[Kaizer]

save shaf

[CBear3]

I'm not voting for shad unless the real angel comes out. There's no reason to stay hidden at this point.

That sounds an awful lot like "come here angel, or I'll kill your seer"

[Troy Loney]

The angel is the most valuable player in the game. Why would i vote him out? In the oft chance that the seer is able to stay hidden and maybe peg one bad guy before he gets killed?

[CBear3]

If you're red, Troy that's be awfully nice wouldn't it? And since I've already pegged Shaf extending my life might help the Village get two out of three

[ulf]

The fact that shaf was going after me despite my role claim (before and after his) sat wrong with me. I wanted to know if he was somebody I could trust, so I looked at him and he came back red. Rather than sit and wait to see how the day unfolded, I came right out to lynch him. The longer it takes to lynch him, the more likely it is that either the real angel or vig winds up tipping their hands to the reds inadvertently. So I wanted Shaf gone quickly.

This makes a lot of sense to me. Shaf's play is that the real angel would have come out by now, well then why hasn't the real seer come out yet to dispute cbear's claim? Not that he should, but it goes both ways. First shad squirmed at being voted off early 2 days in a row, now a lackluster role claim.

[canaan]

Code: Select all

Voting:
shad  - 3
cbear - 4