History Mafia -- GAME THREAD

[slappybrown]

Before I was 50-50 on bhaw being bad, now I am 60-40 him being bad. We need some help from the village RP that is left (no, not encouraging this person to come out).

[crayz]

So i ran the numbers to see what would happen if we trusted bhaw/didn't trust him...and then looked at zaro's post.

Here is my thoughts:

Bhaw was good guy seer and then was converted.

The role blocker is good and has been blocking bhaw throughout the game.

Bhaw was just a mod and knows the rules and doesn't play bs crap...I do NOT see him making that "ie is red" post during the night phase regardless of what mac told him he could/couldn't do. I think bhaw investigated TW, said IE is red so we thought he investigated IE, then had mafia GF kill TW. Since bhaw's post was early, it makes him look clear.

There is still a good chance IE is bad though....bhaw knows he just needs to buy a few more days alive and the games over....which sacrificing IE would do.

That's my theory.

so either lynch bhaw, or we trust him and go with IE and revisit bhaw tomorrow.

[cup keeper]

Before I was 50-50 on bhaw being bad, now I am 60-40 him being bad. We need some help from the village RP that is left (no, not encouraging this person to come out).

If the last village rp is a nurse, they are not much help. The timing of bhaw outing ie is what is a big question. Doing anything at night is always suspect.

[slappybrown]

Before I was 50-50 on bhaw being bad, now I am 60-40 him being bad. We need some help from the village RP that is left (no, not encouraging this person to come out).

If the last village rp is a nurse, they are not much help. The timing of bhaw outing ie is what is a big question. Doing anything at night is always suspect.

What is tipping me to believe that bhaw is red is the fact that mac said "night talking is ok" or whatever rather than saying yes I told bhaw he could do what he did.

[count2infinity]

Before I was 50-50 on bhaw being bad, now I am 60-40 him being bad. We need some help from the village RP that is left (no, not encouraging this person to come out).

the more i think about it, the more i might be inclined to think the last RP should come out. if they are a role blocker or nurse then it's a hit and miss sort of thing. if they come out then we know for sure that bhaw is bad and we can work from there. i could be wrong, but i think it is possibly a good idea so that we know for sure about bhaw. thoughts?

btw...last RP don't come out until we discuss this a little.

[crayz]

goin to school, i'll try and login some.

lynch bhaw

[cup keeper]

lynch bhaw

I'm positive he is the cop because no one has come out to discredit him. I do however think he was the convert. I'd rather lose because we lynched bhaw than lose because we all blindly believed him when he was red.

[count2infinity]

i'd like to hear from IE, but i think that she might just lay low as it's possible she really is mafia.

[Zarovich]

Before I was 50-50 on bhaw being bad, now I am 60-40 him being bad. We need some help from the village RP that is left (no, not encouraging this person to come out).

the more i think about it, the more i might be inclined to think the last RP should come out. if they are a role blocker or nurse then it's a hit and miss sort of thing. if they come out then we know for sure that bhaw is bad and we can work from there. i could be wrong, but i think it is possibly a good idea so that we know for sure about bhaw. thoughts?

btw...last RP don't come out until we discuss this a little.

It comes down to trust. Will you trust anyone who comes out now saying they are the last rp and that bhaw is bad? It will be bhaw's word against the other person. If bhaw is leading us astray and IE is good, then we have 0 margin for error next day and we have to take out bhaw, but then we have 0 margin for error the next day. It is an absolute must we get this right today, or we will be behind in a big way.

[Zarovich]

i'd like to hear from IE, but i think that she might just lay low as it's possible she really is mafia.

And this would strengthen our trust in bhaw, which spells our doom if he is bad.

[count2infinity]

ugh...we're screwed right now.

[cup keeper]

IE is meaningless at this point. She's not playing. Her only posts are about being burned out and not wanting to play anymore. If she pops up now we have no history on her in this game and no reason to trust her. We need to find the active mafia and deal with IE later.

[Zarovich]

IE is meaningless at this point. She's not playing. Her only posts are about being burned out and not wanting to play anymore. If she pops up now we have no history on her in this game and no reason to trust her. We need to find the active mafia and deal with IE later.

And if her role is role blocker, we should be able to lynch her whenever we want.

I still believe we have a nurse and bhaw is looking for that person and we should take him out before he finds them.

[slappybrown]

Zaro what is the point you wanted to make?

[Zarovich]

Ok, I'm home. Some things I want to know.

If IE was a good role blocker and was converted night 4, then she blocked either Jaysmiter or bhaw and the mafia blocked the other with another role blocker or a joat. Now, if they have a joat, it seems to me they haven't used the extra kill from their joat yet and makes no sense to have not used it last night. They role block the vig and kill him leaving us 1 rp which supposedly is bhaw. bhaw has no protection, since he is the last good rp. the joat kills him and we have no good rp's left.

Now, if they had their own role blocker, I'm assuming you can't block the same person consecutively, then after IE was recruited, they would just alternate blocking bhaw and he would NEVER see anyone.

I think we are down to the nurse role left and bhaw was the cop and got converted.

npv is still bad to me

[count2infinity]

ok...so currently it's 8 townies and 4 baddies... if we kill bhaw and he's our last RP it's 7-4, they kill one tonight 6-4 and if they have a JOAT action left it's 5-4, and if we mess up one time the rest of the game, game-set-match mafia... are we going to take that chance and kill bhaw today?

[Twisted Wrister]

*Good luck village*

"Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

[cup keeper]

ok...so currently it's 8 townies and 4 baddies... if we kill bhaw and he's our last RP it's 7-4, they kill one tonight 6-4 and if they have a JOAT action left it's 5-4, and if we mess up one time the rest of the game, game-set-match mafia... are we going to take that chance and kill bhaw today?

We could play the "what if" game all day. If we kill ie and she is a non-participating blue villager we're still in the same spot. Killing bhaw takes away a lot of question marks, I feel. And I'd also like to think that twc was onto something and those of us that voted for him were strayed by bhaw.

[cup keeper]

Heading to the game. Fingers crossed we get mafia if the vote goes down while I'm gone.

[bhaw]

lynch ie

just got home. she's bad. according to my pm, she was the town role blocker and was converted. I'm not going to fight with people this round. It's cut and dry. The only way the mafia could clear IE from getting killed today after I was able to bring out the info at night was to leave me alive.

DO NOT TRUST ZARO!

[Zarovich]

ok...so currently it's 8 townies and 4 baddies... if we kill bhaw and he's our last RP it's 7-4, they kill one tonight 6-4 and if they have a JOAT action left it's 5-4, and if we mess up one time the rest of the game, game-set-match mafia... are we going to take that chance and kill bhaw today?

We could play the "what if" game all day. If we kill ie and she is a non-participating blue villager we're still in the same spot. Killing bhaw takes away a lot of question marks, I feel. And I'd also like to think that twc was onto something and those of us that voted for him were strayed by bhaw.

if Bhaw were good, he has 3 votes now, the baddies could jump on it and finish him, unless 1 or 2 of the 2 other votes are bad guys. The longer this takes, the more confident I feel bhaw is bad

[Zarovich]

lynch ie

just got home. she's bad. according to my pm, she was the town role blocker and was converted. I'm not going to fight with people this round. It's cut and dry. The only way the mafia could clear IE from getting killed today after I was able to bring out the info at night was to leave me alive.

DO NOT TRUST ZARO!

Explain my 2 scenarios i brought up about the roleblockers and joat possibilites. You should either be dead or have no chance to get info. I don't buy your story anymore.

[bhaw]

You guys are trusting the first person that came out and lied about being the cop.

I think at least 1 or 2 mafia jumped on me early to get the band wagon going and on a quick vote.

seriously, if you want a red person, take out IE. Taking out me is taking out the last GOOD rp.

No one has presented anything hard against me as being bad. Just "oh, you helped save NAN" who came out the next day anyways (yeah, i'm THAT dumb).

[bhaw]

lynch ie

just got home. she's bad. according to my pm, she was the town role blocker and was converted. I'm not going to fight with people this round. It's cut and dry. The only way the mafia could clear IE from getting killed today after I was able to bring out the info at night was to leave me alive.

DO NOT TRUST ZARO!

Explain my 2 scenarios i brought up about the roleblockers and joat possibilites. You should either be dead or have no chance to get info. I don't buy your story anymore.

No, if there is 1 joat and 1 role blocker, the joat used their role blocking on night 3 to get rid of jay. Therefore only IE has role blocking ability but they only let you block the same person every other night. so I got info. It's not hard.

[crayz]

2 things...

1) IE could be playing like canaan nintendo wars. He kept complaining that he didn't want to play anymore and he was bored and stopped playing....at least in the thread, because he was bad.
2) If bhaw is good and we kill him....we instantly know that Zaro and IE are bad. We lose 1 gain 2