I honestly do not know much about the prospects, but...
Ottawa gets Duchene but gives up Turris (not far off from a wash alone), PLUS also a 1st, a 3rd, a 1st round prospect from last year, and Hammond too. That is a lot to "upgrade" from Turris to Duchene. Maybe Turris and the 3rd for Duchene. A first? Plus last year's first? Plus more?
Nashville gets Turris and gives up a 2nd, a decent forward prospect and a potential high end puck moving Dman. If there is one thing that Nashville has nearly no use for, it's a D prospect. Do they move something that they don't need (but has value), a pick in the 50's, and a young scoring forward, and lock up their center position very solid.
Colorado rids itself of something that it no longer wanted and that was becoming a PR nightmare, and picks up a bunch of dice rolls but potentially sets themselves up nicely for a few years down the road.
Both Colorado and Nashville did rather well. Colorado's is not really measurable at this point as it is all picks and prospects, all fingers crossed future payoff. Nashville IS a better team today than they were Saturday. Ottawa... well, Ottawa did their best Ned Beatty "Bobby" impression yesterday. Sakic only needed one fool and he flipped over the right rock.
This deal looks like a winner for all involved. Ott and Nash just gained NHL star power to add to their roster without losing anything from their NHL team. This finally slots Bonino in the 3rd line center roll and not the 2nd line where he was.
So, here's my expanded breakdown on the deal. I did one in the great big thread on the Penguins board, but, here's a different view after I got even more time to dig into the prospect side of things.
First, the surface pieces that were given up by each team:
While Turris was a want for Nashville, I think the whole trade boils down to 2 situations:
1) Ottawa wanted Duchene the most
2) Ottawa was not willing to give up ANY of their young prospect defensemen, so they had to get Girard to include him in the deal.
So, this was about Ottawa not wanting to trade Thomas Chabot, Colin White, or Ben Harpur in the deal. Chabot and White are considered Ottawa's top 2 prospects, and Harpur is their 3rd rated d-man prospect. Bowers was roughly 4th in the best prospect pecking order, with centerman Logan Brown 3rd ahead of Bowers.
In this year's NHL top 100 prospects with teams, Chabot was rated the 3rd highest prospect, behind the Bruins Charlie McAvoy and the Devils Nico Hischier. So Ottawa did good in not giving up Chabot. Colin Whilte came in as #30 overall. Logan Brown #64. (Sprong checks in at #36, FYI)
In terms of the prospects that were dealt, Sam Girard was the top prospect Colorado received, and he was #88 out of the top 100. The list I am using comes from the Hockey Writers, and was published mid-September of this year. There are some qualifications that could effect some of the others involved, but Ottawa had guys rated #3, #30, and #64 in their organization, and Colorado was not able to pry any of them away from Ottawa. Girard and Kamenev were considered Nashville's top 2 prospects.....Let that sink in for a minute.....Nashville gave up the highest rated prospect in the deal in Sam Girard to get UFA to be Kyle Turris.
So, here are my big questions at the end of the day:
1) Why didn't Colorado and Nashville just make a trade, and leave Ottawa out of it? Maybe the Avs wouldn't deal in their conference, but the Avs are a ways away from needing to worry trading a player and it affecting their conference playoff chances. Nashville was long rumored to want Duchene, and rumored to not want to part with Ekholm to get him. But, at the end of the day, they gave up the top 2 prospects that Colorado ultimately received, and then signed Turris to a deal on par with what Duchene makes now. A bit puzzling there. Nashville should have just ponied up their 1st and maybe 1 other player, gotten Duchene, and called it a day.
2) Toss Hammond out, as I think he was just filler at this point. Colorado may have been better off just dealing with Ottawa, lowering the price a bit in terms of overall assets received, but getting a higher end prospect. Doubtful Ottawa was going to give up Chabot under any circumstances, but, Colorado should have pushed for White.....and instead ended up with Girard. Turris, White, Bowers, OTT 1st and 3rd would have been better for Colorado. They could have re-flipped Turris, or extended him to see if he could replace Duchene. Colorado would have lost out on Kamenev and a 2nd with this deal, but Turris could have gotten something similar if they flipped him at the deadline.
Colorado wins because of the # of assets they received, but the quality of those assets is questionable. They left better pieces on the table.
Ottawa wins by not giving up Chabot or White, but loses because they gave up A TON to get Duchene....too much.
Nashville wins by upgrading their 2nd Center, and extending him. But it cost their top 2 prospects 2 do it (for a Cup final team, I think they are OK with that).....and may cause some further issues with Nick Bonino, who signed to be Nashville's #2 center.
AMENDMENT: I mentioned Sprong came in at #36 in the top 100. Jarry came in at #61. So, to say the Penguins didn't have the assets to compete in the deal is probably incorrect.....as Sprong and Jarry would technically rank 20-50 spots higher than the prospects Colorado did receive. Let's assume it would have cost them at least Sprong, Jarry, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, maybe a Bengtsson and something off the roster for cap space. Colorado still probably says no because we lack the top end defensive prospect, but pretty steep price for Duchene.
