Surprised Crosby has not extended yet

[largegarlic]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

[KG]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

I agree that it's highly likely he stays but I wouldn't be surprised if after the Jake trade Sid hit the pause button to see where this whole thing goes. Sid was clearly not pleased with losing Jake. And KD didn't add much to the lineup so far this off-season to excite Sid or show that this team is still going for it. They are clearly in a transition. I mean they traded Smith for a draft pick 3 years from now...

I think Sid re-signs but I'm sure he's not pleased with the roster construction. Really hope KD can pull off a solid top 6 wing trade to help the depth.

[Puck-Lurker]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

There isn't much that has to go right to make the playoffs.

If Sid is Sid, the PP improves a little and defence doesn't give everything away (looking at you Jarry, Graves, Letang). Some scoring to improve in the lineup (Geno and/or Rakell) would compensate a bit as well.


If this team gets to round 1, we have no business being there. But we can get in. That still has to be a realistic goal given the players we have.

[Pitts]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

There isn't much that has to go right to make the playoffs.

If Sid is Sid, the PP improves a little and defence doesn't give everything away (looking at you Jarry, Graves, Letang). Some scoring to improve in the lineup (Geno and/or Rakell) would compensate a bit as well.


If this team gets to round 1, we have no business being there. But we can get in. That still has to be a realistic goal given the players we have.

This is the truth. The Isles, Sens, Wash, Philly, Detroit, etc - none of them improved leaps and bounds over the Pens this off season. The Pens missed the playoffs by 1-2 points. Even a half decent powwerplay has them in.

[Antonio]

Working in favor of that hypothesis is the notion that a few players could or should return to a more normal average production, the power play couldn't be much worse and all other things being equal they could possibly end up on the higher end of the average based on last year's performance.

Things working against it .. everyone is yet another year older, the idea that Crosby and Malkin will play another 82 game season is unlikely, no real changes have been made at the top, the roster is arguably worse than it was.

Honestly I don't see them making it. Is it possible? Certainly. I think all things considered is unlikely though.

[largegarlic]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

There isn't much that has to go right to make the playoffs.

If Sid is Sid, the PP improves a little and defence doesn't give everything away (looking at you Jarry, Graves, Letang). Some scoring to improve in the lineup (Geno and/or Rakell) would compensate a bit as well.


If this team gets to round 1, we have no business being there. But we can get in. That still has to be a realistic goal given the players we have.

Yeah, they obviously could make the playoffs, and that's the people in the organization will be telling themselves. I'm just saying that they're probably not going to be forecast as a playoff team in many season previews. 9 teams in the conference finished with more points than them last season, and they didn't do much (anything?) to substantially improve. And I think it's pretty likely that NJ has a bounce back season and is back in the playoff mix. Conversely, it's kinda absurd that the Caps made the playoffs with a -37 goal differential and might be in for a regression to the mean this season, but they also made some nice moves this summer.

[pfim]

Working in favor of that hypothesis is the notion that a few players could or should return to a more normal average production, the power play couldn't be much worse and all other things being equal they could possibly end up on the higher end of the average based on last year's performance.

Things working against it .. everyone is yet another year older, the idea that Crosby and Malkin will play another 82 game season is unlikely, no real changes have been made at the top, the roster is arguably worse than it was.

Honestly I don't see them making it. Is it possible? Certainly. I think all things considered is unlikely though.

Yeah I'm just not seeing it. I don't think this is a playoff team, as constructed, playing the way that Sullivan wants.

The improvement needs to come from within (Graves, Karlsson, Rakell etc) and most of those guys aren't improving at their age.

And Jarry is still the number 1.

[Puck-Lurker]

I just love watching this one over and over. Crosby just cruising straight through the Sabres PK and beating Lehner with a one-handed backhand.

[FLPensFan]

I still think it's much more likely that he retires a Penguin, but I have always thought there's a bigger chance that he leaves than most people seem to think. I'd say it's maybe 80/20 that he stays, whereas most of the reporting makes it seem more 99.9/0.1 that he stays. We know that he really values loyalty and would probably really like that legacy of being a one-team guy, but we also know he's super competitive. This has to be the first season since his rookie year where the Pens aren't expected to be a playoff team going into the season, right? They won't say that in the locker room or GM suite, but the guys have to know that. How does Crosby handle that situation mentally, especially when it's unlikely to get better? You'd have to at least think about your options in that situation.

I agree that it's highly likely he stays but I wouldn't be surprised if after the Jake trade Sid hit the pause button to see where this whole thing goes. Sid was clearly not pleased with losing Jake. And KD didn't add much to the lineup so far this off-season to excite Sid or show that this team is still going for it. They are clearly in a transition. I mean they traded Smith for a draft pick 3 years from now...

I think Sid re-signs but I'm sure he's not pleased with the roster construction. Really hope KD can pull off a solid top 6 wing trade to help the depth.

I just don't see Dubas making a top 6 wing trade. It goes against everything he's trying to do now, which is stockpile picks. The time to make the "retooling" moves was about 3 years ago. Instead, both Hextall then Dubas for reasons only God knows, when with the old 30+ adds that killed this team.

To sneak into the playoffs, a lot has to go right:

--I'd be shocked if this team gets 164 combined games played from Crosby and Malkin for the 3rd year in a row. It's never happened. And if either misses a significant amount of time, the Penguins have zero alternatives for top 6 centers. It would be about as bad as when Carter and Blueger were our top 2 centers for a period of time.

--Penguins need a big turnaround by Graves, and we need to see more of Erik Karlsson being Erik Karlsson. We don't need 100 point EK65, but we need to see him rushing the puck more, taking more control and using his offensive abilities.

--We'll need to see Bunting play a full season as a Penguin at a 20+ goal pace, and we'll need to see Rakell return to form.

--From the young guys, we'll need DOC to hit that 20 goal mark, and Puustinen to put up somewhere closer to 10-15 goals.

--From the goaltending, we'll either need Jarry to finally avoid a 2nd half meltdown, or we'll need Blomqvist to force his way onto the team and dazzle us to some victories.

Tall task, but, I'm just as excited at the prospect of selling off Grzelcyk, Eller, and Acciari...and maybe even Pettersson, Bunting, and Beauvillier...to stock pile some high end picks for 2025 and 2026.

[KG]

https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2024 ... e_vignette

Good stuff by Taylor here. Explains that Sid's contract doesn't automatically become a 35+ contract.

[Puck-Lurker]

https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2024 ... e_vignette

Good stuff by Taylor here. Explains that Sid's contract doesn't automatically become a 35+ contract.

Yeah. You'd almost forget non-35+ contracts are a thing these days. Every one of seems to have the payout greater in the first stretch. I imagine it's players and agents giving themselves some protection against teams sidelining them. Like a No Retirement Clause.

[lemieuxReturns]

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

[Skatingpen]

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

I said the same thing a few months ago. Doubt it happens but never say never

[FLPensFan]

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

I said the same thing a few months ago. Doubt it happens but never say never

I think a deal gets done in early September. Sid gets into town a little early as usual and signs a deal before camp officially starts.

If we get to the start of the season and Crosby isn't signed, I would say there is an incredibly strong chance he gets dealt at the deadline, and while people will be mad at Dubas, just like Guentzel...it has to be done. Even Madden said something similar a week or two ago. I highly doubt things would get to the point where Dubas wouldn't meet contract demands, even if Sid said I don't care about how the 35+ contract stuff could effect you, this is what I want. I think Dubas would relent. So if there's no deal before the season, I'd see that as a sign Crosby isn't happy with team construction or team direction.

But...I see about a 10% chance of any of this happening. Crosby will sign and we'll all laugh at the worry and wild ideas that we pondered for him.

[Puck-Lurker]

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

I said the same thing a few months ago. Doubt it happens but never say never

I think a deal gets done in early September. Sid gets into town a little early as usual and signs a deal before camp officially starts.

If we get to the start of the season and Crosby isn't signed, I would say there is an incredibly strong chance he gets dealt at the deadline, and while people will be mad at Dubas, just like Guentzel...it has to be done. Even Madden said something similar a week or two ago. I highly doubt things would get to the point where Dubas wouldn't meet contract demands, even if Sid said I don't care about how the 35+ contract stuff could effect you, this is what I want. I think Dubas would relent. So if there's no deal before the season, I'd see that as a sign Crosby isn't happy with team construction or team direction.

But...I see about a 10% chance of any of this happening. Crosby will sign and we'll all laugh at the worry and wild ideas that we pondered for him.

As sure as I expect a sunrise tomorrow morning, I expect Sid to resign.

[Pitts]

Spoiler:

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

I said the same thing a few months ago. Doubt it happens but never say never

I think a deal gets done in early September. Sid gets into town a little early as usual and signs a deal before camp officially starts.

If we get to the start of the season and Crosby isn't signed, I would say there is an incredibly strong chance he gets dealt at the deadline, and while people will be mad at Dubas, just like Guentzel...it has to be done. Even Madden said something similar a week or two ago. I highly doubt things would get to the point where Dubas wouldn't meet contract demands, even if Sid said I don't care about how the 35+ contract stuff could effect you, this is what I want. I think Dubas would relent. So if there's no deal before the season, I'd see that as a sign Crosby isn't happy with team construction or team direction.

But...I see about a 10% chance of any of this happening. Crosby will sign and we'll all laugh at the worry and wild ideas that we pondered for him.

Where the heck are getting this from? There has been ZERO indication that Crosby, Dubas or Fenway Sports has any intention of letting Crosby leave Pittsburgh. Like, ZERO. This is how crazy rumors start. I see about 0% chance of that ever happening based on comments, most recently, by Dubas, Crosby and Fenway Sports.

[FLPensFan]

Spoiler:

I am going to go out on the crazy train and say the Penguins start the season without a Sid extension and depending on how the team plays, if they are not making the playoffs they trade him at the deadline for a huge haul. And the speculation will be that he re-signs with the Penguins in the offseason.

As crazy as that sounds to some, I would say that Sid not having a new contract by now would have sounded crazier last summer.

I said the same thing a few months ago. Doubt it happens but never say never

I think a deal gets done in early September. Sid gets into town a little early as usual and signs a deal before camp officially starts.

If we get to the start of the season and Crosby isn't signed, I would say there is an incredibly strong chance he gets dealt at the deadline, and while people will be mad at Dubas, just like Guentzel...it has to be done. Even Madden said something similar a week or two ago. I highly doubt things would get to the point where Dubas wouldn't meet contract demands, even if Sid said I don't care about how the 35+ contract stuff could effect you, this is what I want. I think Dubas would relent. So if there's no deal before the season, I'd see that as a sign Crosby isn't happy with team construction or team direction.

But...I see about a 10% chance of any of this happening. Crosby will sign and we'll all laugh at the worry and wild ideas that we pondered for him.

Where the heck are getting this from? There has been ZERO indication that Crosby, Dubas or Fenway Sports has any intention of letting Crosby leave Pittsburgh. Like, ZERO. This is how crazy rumors start. I see about 0% chance of that ever happening based on comments, most recently, by Dubas, Crosby and Fenway Sports.

People are freaking out because he hasn't signed yet. So everyone looks at the team on the ice last year, and what is being put on the ice this year, and starts thinking he hasn't signed because he's having second thoughts. Then when 8/7 past with no contract, the rumor mill and worrying went into overdrive.

I don't think Crosby will leave. There's 100 reasons why nothing has happened yet. The only ones in a rush to see it done are the fans. I don't think I said anything crazy above. Negotiations rarely go into the season. I have no worry right now, but, if camp comes and goes, and there is still nothing signed, you really need to start asking why.

[Dynasty1970]

I hope he goes somewhere else. I would hate to see it but want his last few years to be worthwhile rather than sitting here watching our PP hit at 12% and falling a couple points short of the last playoff spot (as if that is "good enough"). Let him go to Colorado.

[KG]

I would really be shocked if Sid goes anywhere. Part of me would understand it and that he would want to go play with his boy Nate in Colorado. But Sid has already won everything. He's not chasing anything.

Unless he wants to play on a better team so he can rack up more points and move up the NHL all-time list quicker? I really think the Jake trade may have caused Sid to pause and think about the near future of this team.

That all said, if KD was to go out and get a Laine then this team could certainly make the playoffs and show Sid that we aren't doing a true rebuild. You really can't do a true rebuild when you have the aging stars on the roster.

That's why it's real tough to play two sides against the middle. The whole re-tooling on the fly of trading some veterans for younger assets and not being active on UFA. Hard to win that way.

[100565]

What is reasonable contract for Sid?

$11mil, $9mil, $7mil??

If so, pay him $10mil signing bonus (year 1) with salaries of $6mil, $6mil, $5mil. I don’t think qualifies as 35+

Sid’s been making more on endorsements than from Pens last couple years.

I think owners don’t want to pay big sb.

[Pruezy11881]

Just throw this out there to ponder; what if there isn't an extension coming and Sid plays out the last year of the contract and hangs 'em up? This is Flower's last year, Geno is maximum of two years left (possibly 1 if you believe the rumors). Not saying any validity to this but Sid not wanting to leave the Pens in a jam and unsure of how much longer he wants to play...

Lack of hockey may be getting me to LOL

[FLPensFan]

What is reasonable contract for Sid?

$11mil, $9mil, $7mil??

If so, pay him $10mil signing bonus (year 1) with salaries of $6mil, $6mil, $5mil. I don’t think qualifies as 35+

Sid’s been making more on endorsements than from Pens last couple years.

I think owners don’t want to pay big sb.

Players like signing bonus because it is a lump sum paid in July, and doesn't have as much of a tax cut taken out of it. It's a more favorable option for the player. Crosby didn't have any signing bonus in this last contract, because that really became the norm 4-5 years ago.

Also, your proposal would put Sid in the "full retirement cap hit" penalty for the team because it is front-loaded. The 3 major 35+ rules that penalize early retirement from the contract are:
--Cannot have a signing bonus beyond Year 1
--Cannot be a front-loaded contract.
--Total compensation is the same YOY or increases.

This prevents a player from signing, say, a 5 year deal, but front-loading the first 3 years, never intending to play the last 2 years.

3 year deal for Sid:
--Year 1, 1M Salary, 9M signing bonus
--Year 2, 10M Salary, no signing bonus
--Year 3, 10M Salary, no signing bonus

Large, up-front signing bonus, 10M AAV YOY value.

[pfim]

Players like signing bonus because it is a lump sum paid in July, and doesn't have as much of a tax cut taken out of it. It's a more favorable option for the player. Crosby didn't have any signing bonus in this last contract, because that really became the norm 4-5 years ago.

Also, your proposal would put Sid in the "full retirement cap hit" penalty for the team because it is front-loaded. The 3 major 35+ rules that penalize early retirement from the contract are:
--Cannot have a signing bonus beyond Year 1
--Cannot be a front-loaded contract.
--Total compensation is the same YOY or increases.

This prevents a player from signing, say, a 5 year deal, but front-loading the first 3 years, never intending to play the last 2 years.

3 year deal for Sid:
--Year 1, 1M Salary, 9M signing bonus
--Year 2, 10M Salary, no signing bonus
--Year 3, 10M Salary, no signing bonus

Large, up-front signing bonus, 10M AAV YOY value.

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in three years, time value of money...

[100565]

--Total compensation is the same YOY or increases.

Thanks. I did not know this. Sb is of little significance then.

That does complicate things. I am less worried now.

[BigMcK]

Crosby is ready to sign a one-and-done extension. Word leaks out he makes no demands for a trade, or to be able to refuse a trade at the deadline. NHLPA gets a chance to speak with him about Union matters,

Sid comes back to reality and signs a one-year extension and sets the record for the highest paid player on a single year contract.

NHLPA is happy.

See?

(my chance to weigh in on the crazy)