Random Penguins Fodder

[KG]

Underwhelmed by GMKD. May be too early to judge though.

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

[FLPensFan]

Granlund has 17 points in his last 11 games. Somewhere Hextall is smiling.

Not really. He has 3 goals on the year, on pace for 8,with 18 assists. We have a problem scoring and finishing, so a setup guy is not useful to this team, and was never a good fit for what we needed.

If anything, this probably saves a little bit of face for Nick or Chris Pryor (can't remember which one was pushing for Granlund). While the goals may not be there, the points are and he's not completely devoid of talent. So from a scouting perspective, maybe whichever Pryor wasn't that wrong.

Which leads to....

DOC has played well in spurts, and played really well in the World Championships....
EK was a Vezina winner last year, yet has struggled somewhat here...
Graves was not this bad of a train wreck in NJ or Colorado...
Acciari and Nieto have both been much more effective on the other teams they have played on previously...

This again begs the question...is this a player problem, or a coach problem. Because there are a lot of players coming in that have been great elsewhere that are coming here and struggling.

[dark_forces]

You don't sell low on guys, as bad as Rakell and Graves have played they have to work through it.

The rebuild should start this season. Guentzel has to be shopped and with how bad goaltending has been this season I would listen if teams have interest in Jarry.

Especially now that we know the coach isn't going anywhere to see if a new system or voice could rejuvenate this team - If the right partner is there, you absolutely have to look at moving Guentzel. He's the only realistic option with some value. And if I could, I would also try to unload Bryan Rust. Right now, you're not going to get much for a guy like Rakell or Graves (not only because of their contracts but also because of the NMT/NMC)

A few things that are really interesting to consider:

1) This team, as constructed, is not a playoff contender, let alone a Stanley Cup contender. Selling off parts to expedite the rebuild has to be top priority for Dubas at this point.
2) I really enjoy watching EK65 and will always stand by the fact that it was a tremendous trade. But, he's another guy probably in the offseason or trade deadline, you try and unload - pick up some draft capital if you can. It might be easier to do that in the offseason given his contract.
3) What do you do with the Core? Could we soon be at a point where you have to realistically ask Sid, Geno and Letang if they want to finish their careers here? Or do they want to win? If it's the latter, have to believe you could still get a King's ransom for those guys still. And as much as it would suck, I don't think any Pens fan would begrudge them wanting to play for a contender in their twilight years as opposed to sticking around as everything around them gets torn to pieces.

I loved reading each of your points. If rebuilding is truly on the table, and I would only be definitive about this direction in the new year, Guentzel is the top guy that should be made available. Based on past returns, he's the classic 1st round pick, prospect, and youngish roster player type of return.
Reilly Smith any contending team would likely give more than we did to acquire him.
Eller should net a reasonable return, maybe, hopefully, a 2nd rounder.
Acciari should net at least a 3rd round pick this year or next.
Finally, Nieto for a 7th rounder or a swap of minor league contract just to get his NHL deal off the books.
Finally, promote Puustinen and Poulin to full time duty the rest of the season.
One hockey trade I would look at is POJ to Vancouver for Vasily Podkolzin, or some other minor additions, but that would be the primary pieces.

Vancouver is already pretty full on LD. I've been told by a friend that lives in BC and follows the Canucks they likely wouldn't have interest in POJ.

Guentzel is a no brainer at this point. If we could get a 1st, top prospect, and a young NHL player, that would be a great move. The team may be able to get more if they can do a sign and trade.

Smith, Acciari, and Eller should all be able to gain a solid 2nd or 3rd round pick, though the Penguins may have to retain some salary on Smith or Acciari.

Nieto probably doesn't have much of a market right now. If someone wants him, send a late pick, a prospect, or send us maybe a slightly more expensive contract back (maybe up to 1.5M) with a better pick.

The other guy I would look at would be Rust. Don't necessarily want to move him, but before being injured, he was playing really well. His value may not get this high again over the next few years.

Maybe some teams would have interest in POJ or Ruhwedel as depth. I'd hang onto Ludvig since he's played well and is cheap into next year.

I'd also be willing to move DOC if someone had some interest. 28 games into this season, he's played up and down the lineup and showing he's closer to a career AHLer than everyday NHL player at this point. He cannot score at the NHL level, even though he does all the other little things right. Those types, unfortunately, are dime a dozen in the NHL.

Let's say the Penguins moved Guentzel, Rust, Acciari and Eller. That's 15-16M off the roster for next season, plus a 3.5M cap increase coming. This team could potentially make some smart, YOUNGER (under 30) PLAYER signings, and still try to compete next year. Try and grab one of Bertuzzi, Reinhart, Teravainen, Nylander, Duclair, Olofsson...change up the dynamic of the team a bit. If they don't improve things, you can trade them away in future years to continue stockpiling picks.

I agree with your assessment on DOC. He had a very good opportunity this year and hasn't really seized it—will he ever?
Assuming the team continues to spiral as we move into 2024, I'm of the mind that if another team is sniffing around and I can get an asset back (ideally a 2024 2nd/3rd round pick or decent prospect who's waiver exempt, I'd move him).

[Puck-Lurker]

Underwhelmed by GMKD. May be too early to judge though.

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

GMKD had his hands tied and overhauled the roster with mostly very reasonable signings. You can always cast some shade on some of them (my peeve is Jarry's raise). Picked some guys up off waivers and we have something that is at least in form different to what we had.

Can't fault him for much, looking back.

Since we can't swap out the core, replace the coaching.

[FLPensFan]

Underwhelmed by GMKD. May be too early to judge though.

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

GMKD had his hands tied and overhauled the roster with mostly very reasonable signings. You can always cast some shade on some of them (my peeve is Jarry's raise). Picked some guys up off waivers and we have something that is at least in form different to what we had.

Can't fault him for much, looking back.

Since we can't swap out the core, replace the coaching.

So far, the Dubas failures/blunders this off-season were:

--Jarry raise with NTC all 5 years
--Graves 6 year deal with NTC protection
--Acciari trade protection and overpayment
--Failing to pickup a single bottom 6er with scoring potential

The bottom 6 is only improved defensively. Offensively, it's worse of a black hole than it was last year. This team was already high on contracts with trade protection, and Dubas doubled-down on being locked into contracts difficult to pivot from.

[KG]

Shea on waivers

[Puck-Lurker]

Underwhelmed by GMKD. May be too early to judge though.

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

GMKD had his hands tied and overhauled the roster with mostly very reasonable signings. You can always cast some shade on some of them (my peeve is Jarry's raise). Picked some guys up off waivers and we have something that is at least in form different to what we had.

Can't fault him for much, looking back.

Since we can't swap out the core, replace the coaching.

So far, the Dubas failures/blunders this off-season were:

--Jarry raise with NTC all 5 years
--Graves 6 year deal with NTC protection
--Acciari trade protection and overpayment
--Failing to pickup a single bottom 6er with scoring potential

The bottom 6 is only improved defensively. Offensively, it's worse of a black hole than it was last year. This team was already high on contracts with trade protection, and Dubas doubled-down on being locked into contracts difficult to pivot from.

Going to ignore Jarry, I already agreed there.

The rest hmm..

- Acciari overpayment, by how much are we talking? Different players, but I see him as a Blueger type part of the structure. I think 2M isn't that far off.
- Graves needs time (and/or a different coach and system). He's struggling, but I'm expecting him to recover as time goes by, he's that kind of player. His trade protection allows him to be traded to 20 teams (first 3 years) and 24 teams (last 3 years), which won't matter much if (when) the window is firmly shut. I think he's a good enough player that he'll come back to form and starts clicking.
- Nobody is scoring. Crosby and Guentzel are carrying the team. Rust is out injured and Geno has gone cold. This isn't exactly a bottom six issue.

[FLPensFan]

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

GMKD had his hands tied and overhauled the roster with mostly very reasonable signings. You can always cast some shade on some of them (my peeve is Jarry's raise). Picked some guys up off waivers and we have something that is at least in form different to what we had.

Can't fault him for much, looking back.

Since we can't swap out the core, replace the coaching.

So far, the Dubas failures/blunders this off-season were:

--Jarry raise with NTC all 5 years
--Graves 6 year deal with NTC protection
--Acciari trade protection and overpayment
--Failing to pickup a single bottom 6er with scoring potential

The bottom 6 is only improved defensively. Offensively, it's worse of a black hole than it was last year. This team was already high on contracts with trade protection, and Dubas doubled-down on being locked into contracts difficult to pivot from.

Going to ignore Jarry, I already agreed there.

The rest hmm..

- Acciari overpayment, by how much are we talking? Different players, but I see him as a Blueger type part of the structure. I think 2M isn't that far off.
- Graves needs time (and/or a different coach and system). He's struggling, but I'm expecting him to recover as time goes by, he's that kind of player. His trade protection allows him to be traded to 20 teams (first 3 years) and 24 teams (last 3 years), which won't matter much if (when) the window is firmly shut. I think he's a good enough player that he'll come back to form and starts clicking.
- Nobody is scoring. Crosby and Guentzel are carrying the team. Rust is out injured and Geno has gone cold. This isn't exactly a bottom six issue.

I look at a few different things when evaluating a players "worth." For Acciari, he just turned 32. His highest AAV previously was 1.66M, so we topped that. His last contract paid him 1.25M AAV, so we topped that. In terms of production, I didn't see an improvement from Acciari to warrant that big of a pay raise, or re-instating his NTC. Paying him 1.5M on a 1-2 year deal, with NTC maybe one of those years would have been sufficient. 500K doesn't sound like much, but where this team is with the cap, that 500K likely would have been the difference between only being able to roster 22 or 23 players to start the season.

On Graves, I agree that we've seen other d-men struggle in their first year here. Graves never looked this bad in NJ or Colorado, so I too am questioning whether he is a poor system fit or if adjusting to this system will take him longer than expected.

Nobody may be scoring, but your bottom 6 is supposed to help alleviate some pressure off of your top 6. Last year, the bottom 6 couldn't score, didn't defend well, and didn't PK well either. This year's bottom 6 is better on the PK and 5v5 defense, but they are still BEHIND the goal output of last year's bottom 6. There isn't a single player in the bottom 6 where you look at them and say "Yeah, I'm pretty sure that guy can net at least 15 goals," which is about what you should expect from a 3rd line player. Worse, as many saw this summer and we are seeing now...you lose a winger or two in the top 6, and these players already struggling to put up bottom 6 numbers look way out of place when forced into a top 6 role.

[FLPensFan]

Ryan Shea placed on waivers today.

[Badger Bob]

no big loss

[Puck-Lurker]

I look at a few different things when evaluating a players "worth." For Acciari, he just turned 32. His highest AAV previously was 1.66M, so we topped that. His last contract paid him 1.25M AAV, so we topped that. In terms of production, I didn't see an improvement from Acciari to warrant that big of a pay raise, or re-instating his NTC. Paying him 1.5M on a 1-2 year deal, with NTC maybe one of those years would have been sufficient. 500K doesn't sound like much, but where this team is with the cap, that 500K likely would have been the difference between only being able to roster 22 or 23 players to start the season.

On Graves, I agree that we've seen other d-men struggle in their first year here. Graves never looked this bad in NJ or Colorado, so I too am questioning whether he is a poor system fit or if adjusting to this system will take him longer than expected.

Nobody may be scoring, but your bottom 6 is supposed to help alleviate some pressure off of your top 6. Last year, the bottom 6 couldn't score, didn't defend well, and didn't PK well either. This year's bottom 6 is better on the PK and 5v5 defense, but they are still BEHIND the goal output of last year's bottom 6. There isn't a single player in the bottom 6 where you look at them and say "Yeah, I'm pretty sure that guy can net at least 15 goals," which is about what you should expect from a 3rd line player. Worse, as many saw this summer and we are seeing now...you lose a winger or two in the top 6, and these players already struggling to put up bottom 6 numbers look way out of place when forced into a top 6 role.

500K and less NTC. Fair. I think KD overpaid by that much. True every little bit would've helped a team this badly up against the cap.

KD said that about Graves in his press conference.

"... studying his career [...] he's always been someone that when he's gone there, he's taken a little time to get rolling."

He also mentioned that it's also up to 'us' the organisation to integrate him and the other new players. Which I understood to mean fellow players and the coaches. I think he'll turn it around and improve.

In terms of distribution of goals
- 1st line massively outpaces the rest and it's not close. ~49% (33% expected)
- 2nd line is underrepresented by about 7 goals. ~21% (27% expected)
- 3rd line produces like a 4th line, also short about 7 goals so far. ~10% (18% expected)
- 4th line seems about right. ~9% (7% expected)
- Defence also about 4 goals shy. ~11% (15% expected)

Looking more closely, I'd say it's more a middle six problem. Not enough goals to go around though.

[thehockeyguru]

Underwhelmed by GMKD. May be too early to judge though.

That's funny. In the summer and pre-season, every one loved him. Let's give him some time to figure things out.

KD basically moved mountains getting that EK deal done and clearing out cap space. Of course now EK isn't really fitting into Sully's amazingly outdate system.

Before any major trades happen, KD needs to make a coaching change.

GMKD had his hands tied and overhauled the roster with mostly very reasonable signings. You can always cast some shade on some of them (my peeve is Jarry's raise). Picked some guys up off waivers and we have something that is at least in form different to what we had.

Can't fault him for much, looking back.

Since we can't swap out the core, replace the coaching.

So far, the Dubas failures/blunders this off-season were:

--Jarry raise with NTC all 5 years
--Graves 6 year deal with NTC protection
--Acciari trade protection and overpayment
--Failing to pickup a single bottom 6er with scoring potential

The bottom 6 is only improved defensively. Offensively, it's worse of a black hole than it was last year. This team was already high on 0pl
Pl with trade protection, and Dubas doubled-down on being locked into contracts difficult to pivot from.

Failing to pickup a single bottom 6er who can score is the biggest issue by far.

This team has zero scoring depth and zero cap space and virtually zero assets

[Sigwolf]

EK was a Vezina winner last year, yet has struggled somewhat here...

This quote has gone unquestioned for far too long in this thread...

regardless of the trophy, though, coaching is clearly a major problem with this team.

[FLPensFan]

EK was a Vezina winner last year, yet has struggled somewhat here...

This quote has gone unquestioned for far too long in this thread...

regardless of the trophy, though, coaching is clearly a major problem with this team.

I swore I heard that Karlsson's middle name was "Jarome."

[thehockeyguru]

Dubas needs to find a way to get more scoring out of the 3rd line. When everyone is healthy it should look something like

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Smith Malkin Puustinen
XXX Eller Rakell
Nieto Accari DOC

There aren't a lot of names out there that are cheapish and can be had this early. Maybe a name to keep an eye on is Duclair from SJ..

[KG]

Dubas needs to find a way to get more scoring out of the 3rd line. When everyone is healthy it should look something like

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Smith Malkin Puustinen
XXX Eller Rakell
Nieto Accari DOC

There aren't a lot of names out there that are cheapish and can be had this early. Maybe a name to keep an eye on is Duclair from SJ..

Expected more from DOC this season. 2 goals in 30 games playing top 9 minutes isn't gonna gitter done. I agree he should be on the 4th line when healthy. I would really like to play Acciari on wing at even strength. He is a physical forechecker, that's better suited for the wing. He can play center on the PK. In a perfect world we get a another center and move Eller to 4C. Eller has 3 goals in 30 games. That's 4th line level scoring.

It's the same problem we all knew the Pens would have this season. When healthy they have 2 scoring lines and 2 non-scoring lines. Now when you get injuries, you're lucky to get 1 scoring line.

It's a flawed roster, but their record should be much better. They don't defend hard consistently, they aren't playing the right system to play to the strengths of this current team. Sullivan said yesterday to plays Pittsburgh Penguins style of hockey. I didn't realize we can only play one way.

[Coffey Break]

Dubas needs to find a way to get more scoring out of the 3rd line. When everyone is healthy it should look something like

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Smith Malkin Puustinen
XXX Eller Rakell
Nieto Accari DOC

There aren't a lot of names out there that are cheapish and can be had this early. Maybe a name to keep an eye on is Duclair from SJ..

How soon is Puljujarvi going to be ready? I assume he's still multiple weeks away.

But when fully healthy, I propose:

Guentzel-Sid-Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Puustinen
DOC-Eller-Rust
Nieto/Hinistroza-Acciari-Puljujarvi

I trust Rust to be just a better 2-way forward on a 3rd line role then Rakell. And I still think Rakell can be a huge benefactor to Sid's playmaking ability. Adding Puljujarvi to the bottom 6 already makes that bottom 6 deeper (not to mention a guy in which analytics heavily favors, has a big frame and can presumably be moved up the lineup when needed).

[FLPensFan]

Dubas needs to find a way to get more scoring out of the 3rd line. When everyone is healthy it should look something like

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Smith Malkin Puustinen
XXX Eller Rakell
Nieto Accari DOC

There aren't a lot of names out there that are cheapish and can be had this early. Maybe a name to keep an eye on is Duclair from SJ..

How soon is Puljujarvi going to be ready? I assume he's still multiple weeks away.

But when fully healthy, I propose:

Guentzel-Sid-Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Puustinen
DOC-Eller-Rust
Nieto/Hinistroza-Acciari-Puljujarvi

I trust Rust to be just a better 2-way forward on a 3rd line role then Rakell. And I still think Rakell can be a huge benefactor to Sid's playmaking ability. Adding Puljujarvi to the bottom 6 already makes that bottom 6 deeper (not to mention a guy in which analytics heavily favors, has a big frame and can presumably be moved up the lineup when needed).

At this point, for as little as DOC has done...Nieto has done less IMO. I haven't seen anything there. No aggressive forecheck. No finishing ability. Give him a few games to see if something changes, but he may be one of the biggest disappointments of the season up front.

I'm also waiting to see how bad Sullivan botches things with Puustinen by giving Rust and Rakell their top 6 spots back "because they're vets," or instantly removing Puustinen from the top PP. We'll see how much of the "callup adenaline" wears off, but Puustinen was highly praised last night by both Sid and Eller for having a very high hockey IQ as one of his top traits. He deserves a longer look and at this point, I'd send DOC or Nieto down even if it meant losing them on waivers. Puustinen hasn't scored yet, but he's made some great passes, had a few good chances, and is doing the right things without the puck.

[KG]

Bob Grove
@bobgrove91
Over the last 4 GP, Pens' PP is 6-for-16 (37.5%).

Funny how we've won 3 out of the last 4 games. With the little offensive depth the team has, they clearly need a legit power play to become relevant.

[Pitts]

Dubas needs to find a way to get more scoring out of the 3rd line. When everyone is healthy it should look something like

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Smith Malkin Puustinen
XXX Eller Rakell
Nieto Accari DOC

There aren't a lot of names out there that are cheapish and can be had this early. Maybe a name to keep an eye on is Duclair from SJ..

Been thinking about him the past 2 weeks. I think he'd add a much needed physical element as well.

[pronovost19]

Duclair, Bertuzzi, Maroon, Teravainen, Vrana. Gonna be a lot of LW rentals their at deadline time. Not sure how KD could get ones of these dudes before then. Of course if we sellers then someone in the hunt gonna want Jake.

[FLPensFan]

Duclair, Bertuzzi, Maroon, Teravainen, Vrana. Gonna be a lot of LW rentals their at deadline time. Not sure how KD could get ones of these dudes before then. Of course if we sellers then someone in the hunt gonna want Jake.

Only Vrana and Duclair will likely be available. Vrana has struggled mightily and was actually sent to the minors. I think he's had some personal issues the last year or 2 as well.

[Daniel]

Duclair, Bertuzzi, Maroon, Teravainen, Vrana. Gonna be a lot of LW rentals their at deadline time. Not sure how KD could get ones of these dudes before then. Of course if we sellers then someone in the hunt gonna want Jake.

Only Vrana and Duclair will likely be available. Vrana has struggled mightily and was actually sent to the minors. I think he's had some personal issues the last year or 2 as well.

I think the Penguins should be sellers and try to get as much youth and draft picks as possible. Trade Jake, Rust, and Smith for starters.

[yinzer69]

"EK was a Vezina winner last year, yet has struggled somewhat here..."

Where is this narrative coming from?? EK has been pretty good so far. Has the PP struggled...yes obviously...is that HIS fault? no. Was he ever realistically going to get 100 points here...no. While he is far from good defensively, he has at least been passable. I think EK has been perfectly fine. I'd rather have him than not.

Dubas errors so far are:

Graves- again we need to give him some time to see if he adjusts but right now it looks bad.
bottom 6 scoring depth- I like Acciari (although needs to play wing-thats where he is most effective). Neito hasn't done much but for 900k on the 4th and depth I got no issues. The real issue is not signing someone like Tatar (although he has been garbage this year so far and if he didn't want to come here nothing KD can do about that) and having Eller as ur 3rd C (although I love Eller's game he isn't a 3rd line center at this point) and the struggles of OConnor has all lead the a bottom 6 that simply doesn't score enough.

The Jarry signing was a huge risk but so far has worked out.

[DelPen]

We started seeing some bottom 6 scoring when everyone was healthy and then injuries had Kapanen and Gruden playing. It’s not great but it could still come around. I think the bottom 6 being garbage for the last 5 years is more on the coaches than the probably 2 dozen players we have seen come through.