After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

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After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby longtimefan on Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:02 pm

https://theathletic.com/803366/2019/02/ ... star-rfas/

I was just reading the Athletic's article about the complications Matthews' deal will cause around the NHL. The deal is significant just because of the $11.63 cap hit. He'll receive a signing bonus in years one and two of $15200, in addition to his base salary of $700K. It's a hedge against a lockout, since the bonus is paid regardless. Plus, the five year term takes him to unrestricted free agency. I believe he's a great player, but there's some talk that Marner will be looking for upwards of $11M. That's the Leafs problem. The league's problem is the precedent, and what to do with RFA's who may not be in that class, but certainly are expecting more now.

Initial reactions to the deal were interesting. Multiple sources said they wanted to see what Mitch Marner’s deal looks like before they were willing to say that Matthews’ deal would be anything other than an outlier. Matthews is really in a class by himself, the rare mix of an elite goal-scorer who is also a center.
“Guys like Point, Aho, (Matthew) Tkachuk – they’re all in the same ballpark,” said one Eastern Conference executive. “Matthews is a whole different face of the franchise, face of the NHL. To me, that’s the outlier.”
But if Marner follows suit with a deal that’s close, that would become less an outlier and more of a trend.


Some of these smaller market teams have already aggressively signed their younger players to long-term contracts in part to provide security to players in return for lower AAV.
These teams that have young players signed to reasonable deals, like Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75 million AAV), Winnipeg with Mark Scheifele ($6.125 million AAV) and Colorado with Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3 million AAV), also have their own next wave of young players that need to get done, and that’s where things get interesting.


The Matthews deal becomes the new standard for contract comparables and it looks much different than the deals signed by that first group. That could present a real problem when it comes time to try and find the right number for guys like Tkachuk, Laine and Rantanen.
“Rantanen and Laine are going to be fascinating,” said one team executive. “On both teams, their best players are underpaid. You’re Colorado, you have MacKinnon making six and you’re going to give Rantanen 10? No way, it’ll ruin the locker room. Scheifele is 6.1 and they’re going to give (Laine) 10? And Scheifele carries that team? Those are the teams that are going to have to go shorter years just to keep the numbers where they can tell their (best player) they’re not doubling them up.”


It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. I don't see how Toronto could have three players taking up $33M in cap space. These guys aren't taking discounts.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby DelPen on Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:16 pm

The bigger issue is using signing bonuses. A team might be able to plan to pay one if it’s an extension but let’s say a cash rich team signs a RFA to an offer sheet that is almost all signing bonus like this where a huge payment is due at signing. A lot of teams couldn’t pay $15 million on July 1 unless they banked it for a full year.

The Rangers did this with Sakic and the Avs barely scrapped the cash together to keep him. But this could be a problem for small markets

But the AAV? It’s fair compared to what the cap is. The best players deserve the most money relative to the current cap.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Hatrick on Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:35 pm

his cap hit is crazy based off the term.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Crashguy66 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:40 pm

Another missed season is on the horizon.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Puck-Lurker on Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:58 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong. Couldn't find overly reliable data.

NHL cap ceiling 2013-14 was 64.3M, the year Crosby was signed at 8.7M AAV for 12 years. That's 13.5% of our team's cap space right there for that year.

A year later that's 69M and Malkin was signed 9.5M AAV for 8 years. That makes 13.8% of the cap space. Same year, Tanger gets bumped to 7.25M AAV for 8 years for another 10,5% of the space. Geno and Sid being over a quarter of our cap space then. Add in Letang and it's well over a third of the team's salary.

Crazy money. But you got to pay your stars to have them and hold onto them. They still have just under a third of the cap space locked down.


Matthews? If next year the cap becomes 83M, he'll make 14% of the Leafs cap room. Crosby money. McDavid money. He's a rare kind of player. The Leafs are overpaying, but not that much, I do think the Leafs are cautious at his 5 year term. I'd expected more term for less AAV. Oh well, they're still paying for Kessel's hotdogs.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Hatrick on Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:28 pm

Puck-Lurker wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong. Couldn't find overly reliable data.

NHL cap ceiling 2013-14 was 64.3M, the year Crosby was signed at 8.7M AAV for 12 years. That's 13.5% of our team's cap space right there for that year.

A year later that's 69M and Malkin was signed 9.5M AAV for 8 years. That makes 13.8% of the cap space. Same year, Tanger gets bumped to 7.25M AAV for 8 years for another 10,5% of the space. Geno and Sid being over a quarter of our cap space then. Add in Letang and it's well over a third of the team's salary.

Crazy money. But you got to pay your stars to have them and hold onto them. They still have just under a third of the cap space locked down.


Matthews? If next year the cap becomes 83M, he'll make 14% of the Leafs cap room. Crosby money. McDavid money. He's a rare kind of player. The Leafs are overpaying, but not that much, I do think the Leafs are cautious at his 5 year term. I'd expected more term for less AAV. Oh well, they're still paying for Kessel's hotdogs.

I expected the same term but less money based off what I was hearing. I heard discussion that he was taking less term and AAV so that the team could afford to be competitive in those years. But he got the AAV I would expect if they signed him for 7 years, not 5. I would also say he is a step below where Malkin and Crosby were at that point in their careers(and also a step below McDavid). The fact he got close to the AAV of McDavid but the team only had 5 years of certainty after him being rumored to be taking a "discount" is what was so shocking.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Jim on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:00 pm

longtimefan wrote:https://theathletic.com/803366/2019/02/06/how-the-matthews-deal-shifts-the-market-for-the-next-group-of-star-rfas/

I was just reading the Athletic's article about the complications Matthews' deal will cause around the NHL. The deal is significant just because of the $11.63 cap hit. He'll receive a signing bonus in years one and two of $15200, in addition to his base salary of $700K. It's a hedge against a lockout, since the bonus is paid regardless. Plus, the five year term takes him to unrestricted free agency. I believe he's a great player, but there's some talk that Marner will be looking for upwards of $11M. That's the Leafs problem. The league's problem is the precedent, and what to do with RFA's who may not be in that class, but certainly are expecting more now.

Initial reactions to the deal were interesting. Multiple sources said they wanted to see what Mitch Marner’s deal looks like before they were willing to say that Matthews’ deal would be anything other than an outlier. Matthews is really in a class by himself, the rare mix of an elite goal-scorer who is also a center.
“Guys like Point, Aho, (Matthew) Tkachuk – they’re all in the same ballpark,” said one Eastern Conference executive. “Matthews is a whole different face of the franchise, face of the NHL. To me, that’s the outlier.”
But if Marner follows suit with a deal that’s close, that would become less an outlier and more of a trend.


Some of these smaller market teams have already aggressively signed their younger players to long-term contracts in part to provide security to players in return for lower AAV.
These teams that have young players signed to reasonable deals, like Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75 million AAV), Winnipeg with Mark Scheifele ($6.125 million AAV) and Colorado with Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3 million AAV), also have their own next wave of young players that need to get done, and that’s where things get interesting.


The Matthews deal becomes the new standard for contract comparables and it looks much different than the deals signed by that first group. That could present a real problem when it comes time to try and find the right number for guys like Tkachuk, Laine and Rantanen.
“Rantanen and Laine are going to be fascinating,” said one team executive. “On both teams, their best players are underpaid. You’re Colorado, you have MacKinnon making six and you’re going to give Rantanen 10? No way, it’ll ruin the locker room. Scheifele is 6.1 and they’re going to give (Laine) 10? And Scheifele carries that team? Those are the teams that are going to have to go shorter years just to keep the numbers where they can tell their (best player) they’re not doubling them up.”


It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. I don't see how Toronto could have three players taking up $33M in cap space. These guys aren't taking discounts.


Why does the highest $ amount become the "standard for contract comparables"? BS
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby longtimefan on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:18 pm

Puck-Lurker wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong. Couldn't find overly reliable data.

NHL cap ceiling 2013-14 was 64.3M, the year Crosby was signed at 8.7M AAV for 12 years. That's 13.5% of our team's cap space right there for that year.

A year later that's 69M and Malkin was signed 9.5M AAV for 8 years. That makes 13.8% of the cap space. Same year, Tanger gets bumped to 7.25M AAV for 8 years for another 10,5% of the space. Geno and Sid being over a quarter of our cap space then. Add in Letang and it's well over a third of the team's salary.

Crazy money. But you got to pay your stars to have them and hold onto them. They still have just under a third of the cap space locked down.


Matthews? If next year the cap becomes 83M, he'll make 14% of the Leafs cap room. Crosby money. McDavid money. He's a rare kind of player. The Leafs are overpaying, but not that much, I do think the Leafs are cautious at his 5 year term. I'd expected more term for less AAV. Oh well, they're still paying for Kessel's hotdogs.


I think the term is as much to Matthew's benefit as the Leafs. You mentioned Sid and Geno. Ovechkin falls in the same category. In hindsight, those long term deals left money on the table. If Matthews continues his trajectory, he'll have a chance to be a UFA at age 27. And cash in on the new cap.

It amy be fair for Matthews, but what will it do to Marner, Laine, and Rantanen. The last two have are on teams with more important young players under long term deals. Mackinnon is signed for four more years at $6.3M, and Scheiflie for $6.125 for 5 more seasons. How much over those amounts can you go without rocking the boat?
Last edited by longtimefan on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby longtimefan on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:20 pm

Jim wrote:
longtimefan wrote:https://theathletic.com/803366/2019/02/06/how-the-matthews-deal-shifts-the-market-for-the-next-group-of-star-rfas/

I was just reading the Athletic's article about the complications Matthews' deal will cause around the NHL. The deal is significant just because of the $11.63 cap hit. He'll receive a signing bonus in years one and two of $15200, in addition to his base salary of $700K. It's a hedge against a lockout, since the bonus is paid regardless. Plus, the five year term takes him to unrestricted free agency. I believe he's a great player, but there's some talk that Marner will be looking for upwards of $11M. That's the Leafs problem. The league's problem is the precedent, and what to do with RFA's who may not be in that class, but certainly are expecting more now.

Initial reactions to the deal were interesting. Multiple sources said they wanted to see what Mitch Marner’s deal looks like before they were willing to say that Matthews’ deal would be anything other than an outlier. Matthews is really in a class by himself, the rare mix of an elite goal-scorer who is also a center.
“Guys like Point, Aho, (Matthew) Tkachuk – they’re all in the same ballpark,” said one Eastern Conference executive. “Matthews is a whole different face of the franchise, face of the NHL. To me, that’s the outlier.”
But if Marner follows suit with a deal that’s close, that would become less an outlier and more of a trend.


Some of these smaller market teams have already aggressively signed their younger players to long-term contracts in part to provide security to players in return for lower AAV.
These teams that have young players signed to reasonable deals, like Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau ($6.75 million AAV), Winnipeg with Mark Scheifele ($6.125 million AAV) and Colorado with Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3 million AAV), also have their own next wave of young players that need to get done, and that’s where things get interesting.


The Matthews deal becomes the new standard for contract comparables and it looks much different than the deals signed by that first group. That could present a real problem when it comes time to try and find the right number for guys like Tkachuk, Laine and Rantanen.
“Rantanen and Laine are going to be fascinating,” said one team executive. “On both teams, their best players are underpaid. You’re Colorado, you have MacKinnon making six and you’re going to give Rantanen 10? No way, it’ll ruin the locker room. Scheifele is 6.1 and they’re going to give (Laine) 10? And Scheifele carries that team? Those are the teams that are going to have to go shorter years just to keep the numbers where they can tell their (best player) they’re not doubling them up.”


It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. I don't see how Toronto could have three players taking up $33M in cap space. These guys aren't taking discounts.


Why does the highest $ amount become the "standard for contract comparables"? BS


Because it's what an arbitrator would look at. Like it or not, it sets the market.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby 100565 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:31 pm

Pens win the cup in 2009 while Malkin was still on ELC.

The following year, Malkin got his 8.7mil.

Is it a coincidence the Pens went cupless until Malkin and Crosby (and Letang) cap proportion (due to annual increase in salary cap) decreased. to a point the team could afford depth? If so, Toronto needs to go all-in this year.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby 100565 on Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:44 pm

Also, since contracts in the NHL are guaranteed, the signing bonus is mostly important now due to probable lockout. If the next CBA is lengthy, signing bonuses will be less important. Of course signing bonus still would put a little more money in aplayers pocket, but only on interest or return of investments. Now, signing bonus is critical due to ppssiblu losing an entire year's salary.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby penny lane on Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:12 am

https://theathletic.com/804501/2019/02/ ... different/
Rob Rossi has a terrific article regarding Sid, Evgeni, and Letang contracts.
Sid wasn't out for the last $ on his contracts- Evgeni saw what he did and did the same.
“You need two great players to win (the) Stanley Cup,” he said. “Sid is the best player. With him on my team, I always have a chance to win — and he makes (it) easy on me, because with Sid on the team, in Pittsburgh I can just play hockey. When Sid did his (third) contract, I knew I should stay. I hope we play in Pittsburgh always.”


“It was my choice,” Crosby said of taking a so-called discount on extensions he inked during the summers of 2007 and 2012, respectively.
“It doesn’t guarantee anything. But that was something I thought might give me a better opportunity to win.”

Best quote~ Crosby, for example, said he has never wanted to be test free agency. “Nah, no, that’s a fuss!
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby 100565 on Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:23 am

penny lane wrote:https://theathletic.com/804501/2019/02/07/sidney-crosby-on-always-taking-less-to-help-penguins-chase-the-cup-i-dont-know-anything-different/
Rob Rossi has a terrific article regarding Sid, Evgeni, and Letang contracts.
Sid wasn't out for the last $ on his contracts- Evgeni saw what he did and did the same.
“You need two great players to win (the) Stanley Cup,” he said. “Sid is the best player. With him on my team, I always have a chance to win — and he makes (it) easy on me, because with Sid on the team, in Pittsburgh I can just play hockey. When Sid did his (third) contract, I knew I should stay. I hope we play in Pittsburgh always.”


“It was my choice,” Crosby said of taking a so-called discount on extensions he inked during the summers of 2007 and 2012, respectively.
“It doesn’t guarantee anything. But that was something I thought might give me a better opportunity to win.”

Best quote~ Crosby, for example, said he has never wanted to be test free agency. “Nah, no, that’s a fuss!


Well, Sids 2nd contract had cap value of $8.7mil and began in 2008-2009. The cap was $56.6mil. 15.35% of cap.
Matthews contact of $11.6mil would be 13.8% of $84mil (estimate) salary cap for next year.

I guess Matthews took a bigger discount. Both 5 year deals.
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby Hatrick on Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:55 pm

100565 wrote:
penny lane wrote:https://theathletic.com/804501/2019/02/07/sidney-crosby-on-always-taking-less-to-help-penguins-chase-the-cup-i-dont-know-anything-different/
Rob Rossi has a terrific article regarding Sid, Evgeni, and Letang contracts.
Sid wasn't out for the last $ on his contracts- Evgeni saw what he did and did the same.
“You need two great players to win (the) Stanley Cup,” he said. “Sid is the best player. With him on my team, I always have a chance to win — and he makes (it) easy on me, because with Sid on the team, in Pittsburgh I can just play hockey. When Sid did his (third) contract, I knew I should stay. I hope we play in Pittsburgh always.”


“It was my choice,” Crosby said of taking a so-called discount on extensions he inked during the summers of 2007 and 2012, respectively.
“It doesn’t guarantee anything. But that was something I thought might give me a better opportunity to win.”

Best quote~ Crosby, for example, said he has never wanted to be test free agency. “Nah, no, that’s a fuss!


Well, Sids 2nd contract had cap value of $8.7mil and began in 2008-2009. The cap was $56.6mil. 15.35% of cap.
Matthews contact of $11.6mil would be 13.8% of $84mil (estimate) salary cap for next year.

I guess Matthews took a bigger discount. Both 5 year deals.

one could argue sid was better when he got his second contract than Matthews is now. But I don't really think either one is much of a discount. Sids newest contract was the one where he took a larger discount(since same cap hit as second one but it lasted for 12 more seasons, which the ability to do that was removed afterwards with the new longest being 8.) Not sure if Matthews has the same plan or if he will likely actually test UFA
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby longtimefan on Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:16 pm

The 5 year deal gives Matthews the chance to opt out in case the Leafs mess it up. That's the situation McDavid finds himself with the Oilers. He's stuck there even if they continue down their current path. What kind of deal will Matthews get if he chooses to become a UFA just prior to his 27th Birthday?
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Re: After Matthews, where do salaries go now?

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:49 pm

Well, Marner's agent Darren Ferris is already out there saying Matthews got the best deal in the entire NHL, and, after seeing the Matthews contract, Ferris says the Leafs have been lowballing Marner on their offers.

So, things will get interesting in Toronto.

Doesn't help they spent a boatload on Nylander only to have him failing badly this year, his production cut in half around .36 points per game compared to .75 points per game the last 2 years.
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