20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

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20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:14 am

****WARNING: This will be long. Should just blog it but, eh, whatever.****

Yeah, I know, cart before the horse....why you looking that far ahead....etc, etc, etc. I get it, but, after the Zucker trade and reviewing the cap for next year, I see a strong possibility for the Penguins to do something that will cause wonderful glee and joy to many of the Penguins fan base: starting to stockpile picks and prospects.

But FLPF, the team has almost no picks this year, what you talkin' bout?

The Penguins currently have 7 forwards who are 25 and under: Guentzel, McCann, ZAR, Kahun, Simon, Lafferty, and Blueger
The Penguins currently have 2 defensemen who are 25 and under: Pettersson, Marino
The Penguins currently have 2 goalies who are 25 and under: Murray, Jarry
The Penguins currently have 7 players who are under 30 (but over 25): Dumoulin, Ruhwedel, DeSmith, Rust, Tanev, Zucker, Bjugstad
That is 17 players (18 if you count a 3rd goalie) under the age of 30.

What's more, over the next 2 seasons, they have only 3 meaningful UFAs: Schultz this year, Bjugstad after next season, and Ruhwedel after next season.
In that same time period, the next 2 seasons, they have 10 RFAs: Murray, Jarry, Marino, McCann, Kahun, Simon, Lafferty, Blueger, ZAR, Riikola

When I look ahead to next seasons roster, this is what I see:

Guentzel-Crosby-Simon
Zucker-Malkin-Rust
Kahun-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xLafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

I look at that roster, and, while there are a few assumptions or players that need to continue on a positive trajectory, I look at it and say, what does that roster really need to add next season???? If you have a keen eye, your eyes should be immediately drawn to that 3rd defensive pairing and be a little scared. Me too, I'm right there with you. You probably also notice 2 players under Penguins control next season are missing....that being Matt Murray and Nick Bjugstad.

Step 1 of restocking the Penguins prospect system involves trading Matt Murray and Nick Bjugstad:
---I think over the summer, the Penguins could get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Bjugstad...unless he has a serious injury.
---I think the Penguins should look to trade Matt Murray this summer. It's not because I don't like him, or I think he sucks, etc. It comes down to 3 main points:
----->1. The Penguins will have to move a goalie in the next year due to the expansion draft (unless they want to risk losing one for nothing, or spend assets to protect a goalie from being taken).
----->2. Matt Murray is going to be the more expensive goalie to sign. At 7M, I do believe he can fit on this roster (more on that in a minute), but it will leaves holes at other positions, mainly that 3rd defensive pairing.
----->3. Matt Murray is going to get the team the bigger return. Jarry is younger, and has greatly elevated his value this season...but he's not Matt Murray. He doesn't have the playoff success and 2 Cups that Murray has. Goalies don't fetch a ton. Jarry may get you one medium-to-high piece. Matt Murray could possibly get you 2-3 pieces.

So the Penguins attempt to acquire a 2nd or 3rd for Bjugstad for the 2020 draft.
The Penguins also trade Murray, asking for a high 1st round pick OR a 2nd round pick and an A-level prospect, or a 2nd round pick and a young RHD defenseman (24 or younger). I don't really care which of those returns he gets, but each serves a purpose...helping to restock the system.

If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV

With that cap ceiling, and those signings above (all reasonable...could maybe add about 250K to one or two deals...maybe), the Penguins have a roster of 21 players which has 13 forwards, 6 defenseman, 2 goalies, and 4.5M in cap space available.

That is before trading Murray and knowing that return. If Murray can get you a young RHD to play on the 3rd pairing, great. If not, then you look to free agency. Schultz, Barrie, Green, Vatanen, Bogosian, Tanev, Hamonic, Gudas, Van Riemsdyk, DeMelo, and Stone are all RHD that are UFA. Serveral of those are outside the Penguins price range, but I have faith they will find someone.

Once that 3rd pairing defenseman is shored up...what else does this team need? We don't know how they will play, but, to me, on paper, that's Sullivan's team. There's nobody there that isn't a fit for this system. They don't need any major adds. They should be able to keep draft picks, and begin restocking their minor league system. In future drafts, they should start putting a big emphasis on centers because, well, in a few years they might have a Grand Canyon size hole there.

After 20-21 season, they lose someone in expansion. At that point, hopefully a Poulin or Legare are ready to step in a replace who we lose. 21-22 season is that last Geno contract year, and, again, there isn't much RFA resigning or UFA resigning needed. Similar to the year they won Cup 1 of the back to back, they don't need to have a lot of roster turnover.

Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.

Anyways, just a rabbit hole I started going down when looking at the cap for next year. The Penguins do have a chance to make some moves and begin their stockpiling of picks and prospects with the team they have now, IMO. Will they do it? I guess we shall see.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby interstorm on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:48 am

I think a hidden benefit of this would be a fair amount of roster consistency which hopefully allows players to really gel with one another and perform better than the sum of the parts. Thinking of our famed KLS line from years ago -- while Kovalev was a unique talent, their performance was greatly aided because they played together for a long time. Not saying the same exact thing will happen here and I would certainly want young players to push for ice time (and injuries will happen)...but consistency and familiarity helps.

Great write up (as usual)!
Last edited by interstorm on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:54 am

interstorm wrote:I think a hidden benefit of this would be a fair amount of roster consistency which hopefully allows players to really gel with one another and perform better than the sum of the parts. Thinking of our famed KLS line from years ago -- while Kovalev was a unique talent, their performance was greatly aided because they played together for a long time. Not saying the same exact thing will happen here and I would certainly want young players to push for ice time (and injuries will happen)...but consistency and familiarity helps.

Yes, I definitely agree. I think on paper, they have a good bit of balance. Guentzel and Zucker give them two solid LWs. Rust is the only solid RW, but, Hornqvist and Simon each have their niche that they excel at. If you really needed to load up, you move Guentzel to RW with Rust on RW, and have Zucker and McCann on the LW. Lots of options.

McCann and Kahun will need to continue to up their game, but, I do see the ability for this team to have some consistency for the next few years.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby pens_CT on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:58 am

You did a great job of looking ahead and putting together a reasonable roster plan going forward. Some thoughts

(1) Yep that third defensive pairing does look scary.

(2) Lack of organizational depth. Who are the players in WBS that we can count on next year when we start seeing injuries again. I understand that you can only have some much depth to take care of injuries, but who are your 8th and 9th defensemen, and your 14th and 15th forward. This is where trading picks in the past just gives you less bodies at WBS that you can call up as needed.

(3) With the lineup you show are we going to get physically manhandled when we get to playoff hockey. I think we'll get an indication this season. Every forward doesn't need to be 6'2"/220 lbs but we're probably on the smaller side as a team compared to some of the teams we'll face in trying to come out of the east.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:21 pm

pens_CT wrote:You did a great job of looking ahead and putting together a reasonable roster plan going forward. Some thoughts

(1) Yep that third defensive pairing does look scary.

(2) Lack of organizational depth. Who are the players in WBS that we can count on next year when we start seeing injuries again. I understand that you can only have some much depth to take care of injuries, but who are your 8th and 9th defensemen, and your 14th and 15th forward. This is where trading picks in the past just gives you less bodies at WBS that you can call up as needed.

(3) With the lineup you show are we going to get physically manhandled when we get to playoff hockey. I think we'll get an indication this season. Every forward doesn't need to be 6'2"/220 lbs but we're probably on the smaller side as a team compared to some of the teams we'll face in trying to come out of the east.

No need to comment further on #1

2) Still short on quality there. A.Johnson, DiPauli, Angello, Blandisi...I'm a bit surprised Sam Miletic hasn't gotten a look at the NHL level yet, but, overall, it's not impressive. Maybe some of these will grow a bit over the summer after getting some NHL experience and being told what to work on. Maybe a Bellerive, Almeida, or Pavylchev (who should be in WBS next year) step up. But the biggest issue is they just lack anybody that you could slot into a top 6 spot for 10 games and be effective. Nobody outside Legare or Poulin has a strong chance to be a top 6 player. On defense, assuming we add a RHD for the 3rd pairing, Ruhwedel as the 7th, I wouldn't doubt if POJ gets a chance at some point if he can re-bulk up this summer (he had gained 10lbs, but then got horribly sick and lost all that gained weight). I keep hearing good things about Almari, and even Nyberg that we got from Dallas. I'd prefer the organization start getting away from leaning on the Warsofsky, Trotman, Czuczman types... these "vets" that have played like 50 or less games between them. Keeping 1 around is ok...3-4, not so much.

3) I don't disagree, but, Sullivan's style just doesn't suit most guys that play a more physical game. It's a poor stat, but if I try and use hits to measure physical play, in the top 10 forwards for his, you've got Tom Wilson, Brandon Tanev, Nick Foligno, and Blake Coleman as guys that I'd trust taking a regular shift. There just aren't many guys out there that have the speed to play this system, play a physical game, and can play above the 4th line.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby sjnhiils on Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:35 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:You did a great job of looking ahead and putting together a reasonable roster plan going forward. Some thoughts

(1) Yep that third defensive pairing does look scary.

(2) Lack of organizational depth. Who are the players in WBS that we can count on next year when we start seeing injuries again. I understand that you can only have some much depth to take care of injuries, but who are your 8th and 9th defensemen, and your 14th and 15th forward. This is where trading picks in the past just gives you less bodies at WBS that you can call up as needed.

(3) With the lineup you show are we going to get physically manhandled when we get to playoff hockey. I think we'll get an indication this season. Every forward doesn't need to be 6'2"/220 lbs but we're probably on the smaller side as a team compared to some of the teams we'll face in trying to come out of the east.

No need to comment further on #1

2) Still short on quality there. A.Johnson, DiPauli, Angello, Blandisi...I'm a bit surprised Sam Miletic hasn't gotten a look at the NHL level yet, but, overall, it's not impressive. Maybe some of these will grow a bit over the summer after getting some NHL experience and being told what to work on. Maybe a Bellerive, Almeida, or Pavylchev (who should be in WBS next year) step up. But the biggest issue is they just lack anybody that you could slot into a top 6 spot for 10 games and be effective. Nobody outside Legare or Poulin has a strong chance to be a top 6 player. On defense, assuming we add a RHD for the 3rd pairing, Ruhwedel as the 7th, I wouldn't doubt if POJ gets a chance at some point if he can re-bulk up this summer (he had gained 10lbs, but then got horribly sick and lost all that gained weight). I keep hearing good things about Almari, and even Nyberg that we got from Dallas. I'd prefer the organization start getting away from leaning on the Warsofsky, Trotman, Czuczman types... these "vets" that have played like 50 or less games between them. Keeping 1 around is ok...3-4, not so much.

3) I don't disagree, but, Sullivan's style just doesn't suit most guys that play a more physical game. It's a poor stat, but if I try and use hits to measure physical play, in the top 10 forwards for his, you've got Tom Wilson, Brandon Tanev, Nick Foligno, and Blake Coleman as guys that I'd trust taking a regular shift. There just aren't many guys out there that have the speed to play this system, play a physical game, and can play above the 4th line.

Puustinen could be a sleeper to keep an eye on. Playing well in Finland now and is supposed to play in WBS next year. Is there any chance that the Pens get Lizotte under contract? He was part of the championship team at St Cloud St.and seems to have settled in nicely for WBS.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby 100565 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:52 pm

I think this is a good exercise to see where the Pens are with respect to the salary cap. I think some of those contracts are ~10% to light with less term than some players will sign (esp. McCann; I think we pay him more AAV with more term). But, overall I think your post is fairly accurate. I do not expect the salary cap to be an issue next year - assuming Bjugstad and Schultz are gone.

However, I do not want to maintain the same roster - not even for one year. Thinking about the past, legitimate cup-run teams have rookies (or very young unproven) player(s). The rookies seem to invigorate the team. I think Sully coaches younger players better, as well.

The other issue with keeping the same roster is "sophomore slump" so to speak. Meaning, some players seem to have a down year after getting their first bigger contract. A contract that has them comfortable (financially) for life. Rust is a prime example, but there have been others. This proposed roster would have a McCann, Kahun, Pettersson, and Jarry in this situation. I would think one or two would have a down year...after signing their contract they would be set for life. This is another reason for having unproven youth.

I would try to move Kahun or Simon or both; roster turnover with infusion of youth is a necessity for this team to play motivated hockey.

One final not, to me, Simon is the most difficult salary to try to predict. His range is anywhere from $1.5-$3.0 million.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:01 am

Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.

I mentioned this above, but to re-iterate. If the Penguins choose to keep Matt Murray, it makes solving any roster holes a bit more difficult with less cap space. You could solve this if you can somehow package Jarry and Bjugstad together for a young, cheap but solid bottom pairing RHD.

Also, the addition of Zucker does complicate things in regards to the expansion draft:

Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann (1 spot left for one of Tanev, Blueger, Kahun, Simon, Hornqvist...and I think whoever isn't protected out of Blueger or Tanev would be selected)
Letang, Dumo, Pettersson (Marino exempt)
Jarry/Murray

Penguins may need to look to a trade again to keep everyone safe.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby sjnhiils on Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:13 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.

I mentioned this above, but to re-iterate. If the Penguins choose to keep Matt Murray, it makes solving any roster holes a bit more difficult with less cap space. You could solve this if you can somehow package Jarry and Bjugstad together for a young, cheap but solid bottom pairing RHD.

Also, the addition of Zucker does complicate things in regards to the expansion draft:

Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann (1 spot left for one of Tanev, Blueger, Kahun, Simon, Hornqvist...and I think whoever isn't protected out of Blueger or Tanev would be selected)
Letang, Dumo, Pettersson (Marino exempt)
Jarry/Murray

Penguins may need to look to a trade again to keep everyone safe.

Hopefully Francis and Mario are still close and he goes easy on the Pens.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby stonewizard51 on Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:47 pm

IMHO it will be something like it was with Vegas so anything Seattle/Francis does will be what it takes to make them immediate contenders. I'm not saying it will be the Cup finals the first year but it will be something to fill the seats the first year and every year there after.

The NHL will make a BIG deal with the draft, therefore the days of being able to draft an ECHL prospect are long gone.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:51 pm

stonewizard51 wrote:IMHO it will be something like it was with Vegas so anything Seattle/Francis does will be what it takes to make them immediate contenders. I'm not saying it will be the Cup finals the first year but it will be something to fill the seats the first year and every year there after.

The NHL will make a BIG deal with the draft, therefore the days of being able to draft an ECHL prospect are long gone.

I think the Penguins could make a less impactful deal then they did with Fleury. As an example, let's say the Penguins protect:

Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann, Blueger.....leaving Hornqvist, Tanev, Kahun, and Simon exposed. None of those are a bad choice to add to an expansion team. If I'm Pittsburgh, maybe I throw a late round pick to Seattle to not take Tanev, and take my chances on losing an aging Hornqvist, Kahun (unsure of where his play will be at that point), or a very good Simon (who could price himself out of Pittsburgh at some point).
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby longtimefan on Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 pm

sjnhiils wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.

I mentioned this above, but to re-iterate. If the Penguins choose to keep Matt Murray, it makes solving any roster holes a bit more difficult with less cap space. You could solve this if you can somehow package Jarry and Bjugstad together for a young, cheap but solid bottom pairing RHD.

Also, the addition of Zucker does complicate things in regards to the expansion draft:

Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann (1 spot left for one of Tanev, Blueger, Kahun, Simon, Hornqvist...and I think whoever isn't protected out of Blueger or Tanev would be selected)
Letang, Dumo, Pettersson (Marino exempt)
Jarry/Murray

Penguins may need to look to a trade again to keep everyone safe.

Hopefully Francis and Mario are still close and he goes easy on the Pens.


It also can't hurt that JR was Ronnie's mentor, and groomed him for management in Carolina.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:51 pm

With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit

(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.

With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Jarry, DeSmith

Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.

So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.

A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby pens_CT on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:01 pm

FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit

(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.

With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Jarry, DeSmith

Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.

So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.

A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.


I think the play with Murray, unless you get a lottery draft pick in return (unlikely in my opinion) is to look for a team that needs a goalie, and has a younger defender who could be had in return. McCabe isn’t bad, but there may be better options out there. I agree on Poulin, unless he flops at camp I think he is making the NHL roster next year. His skill set will allow him to start on the third line, and then potentially move up in the lineup.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:20 pm

pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit

(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.

With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Jarry, DeSmith

Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.

So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.

A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.


I think the play with Murray, unless you get a lottery draft pick in return (unlikely in my opinion) is to look for a team that needs a goalie, and has a younger defender who could be had in return. McCabe isn’t bad, but there may be better options out there. I agree on Poulin, unless he flops at camp I think he is making the NHL roster next year. His skill set will allow him to start on the third line, and then potentially move up in the lineup.

I agree that the lottery pick is probably unlikely, and getting an upgrade at RD or LD for the 3rd pairing would be an idea. Just trying to look at some teams who may need a goalie, and a young RFA RD or LD they could send back:

Chicago - RD Boqvist
Edmonton - RD Bear
Carolina - LD Fleury
Detroit - LD Cholowski

Those are really the only 4 names I could come up with, and not sure how likely teams will be to move those guys.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby pens_CT on Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:41 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit

(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.

With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty

Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel

Jarry, DeSmith

Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.

So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.

A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.


I think the play with Murray, unless you get a lottery draft pick in return (unlikely in my opinion) is to look for a team that needs a goalie, and has a younger defender who could be had in return. McCabe isn’t bad, but there may be better options out there. I agree on Poulin, unless he flops at camp I think he is making the NHL roster next year. His skill set will allow him to start on the third line, and then potentially move up in the lineup.

I agree that the lottery pick is probably unlikely, and getting an upgrade at RD or LD for the 3rd pairing would be an idea. Just trying to look at some teams who may need a goalie, and a young RFA RD or LD they could send back:

Chicago - RD Boqvist
Edmonton - RD Bear
Carolina - LD Fleury
Detroit - LD Cholowski

Those are really the only 4 names I could come up with, and not sure how likely teams will be to move those guys.


You don't think Edmonton would give up Broberg or Bouchard for Murray? Maybe we need to throw something else there way, but I don't see them going anywhere with their current goalie situation.
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby Jim on Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:24 pm

FLPensFan wrote:****WARNING: This will be long.


Yowza
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby Daniel on Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:00 pm

Jim wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:****WARNING: This will be long.


Yowza


Yeah, when FLPensFan warns you it’ll be long, you might want to set aside an afternoon to continue reading. :scared: :fist:
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:07 pm

Because losing is boring, I'm looking ahead to this summer already. And looking ahead to this summer, I keep coming back to one item:

I'd go out of my way to try and acquire Mike Hoffman this summer.

In the past 6 seasons, Hoffman has (in descending order) 36, 29, 29 (this season), 27, 26, & 22 goals. That's a 28 goal per season average.
The next closest to that type of output is going to be Taylor Hall, and he's nowhere near that consistent.
Hoffman would give the Penguins a 2nd "pure goal scorer" type on the team.

Trade Simon, Bjugstad, Johnson, Riikola and Murray this summer
--use Murray to get back on solid bottom pairing defensemen plus picks/prospects
--use cap space from no longer having Bjugstad or Johnson
--move Simon just because there wouldn't be a spot for him

Sign Hoffman for 5 years at 7M. At least throw that out there, because as likely the top UFA winger, he may command more (and I don't wanna go higher)
You give Poulin a shot to make the team, and if not, then you bring in another body.

Zucker-Crosby-Hoffman
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR
xLafferty, Rodrigues

OK team, can we win some games so I can get back to some reality...
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby Jim on Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:18 pm

I am dreading another summer of this. In all probability, Johnson is not going anywhere, at least not until after the expansion draft. He doesn't have a NTC, but Pettersson didn't have a 6 year contract when he signed the 1 year deal this past summer...

(It doesn't have anything to do with the expansion draft itself, just that more spots will be open, more options available, time will have passed to get his life together, Crosby will be okay with it)
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Re: 20-21 and beyond: A possible bright future

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:30 pm

Jim wrote:I am dreading another summer of this. In all probability, Johnson is not going anywhere, at least not until after the expansion draft. He doesn't have a NTC, but Pettersson didn't have a 6 year contract when he signed the 1 year deal this past summer...

(It doesn't have anything to do with the expansion draft itself, just that more spots will be open, more options available, time will have passed to get his life together, Crosby will be okay with it)

I'm kinda hoping Murray gets traded to someone like Buffalo, and GMJR forces Buffalo to take Johnson too. But then, that would require GMJR or Sullivan to think that Johnson isn't a good player, and, they have yet to show that.

Seriously, I do think there are going to be some bigger moves this summer. I don't think Johnson will be as difficult to move this summer if they wanted to, but, still not easy.
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