2020 and Post-ASG Penguins Goalie Tracking

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2020 and Post-ASG Penguins Goalie Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 02, 2020 9:34 pm

I have changed this post a little, to take a look at Jarry and Murray's 2020 numbers, as well as post-ASG numbers.

Totals from 1/1/2020 through 2/17/2020


All Strengths
Matt Murray, 8GP, 6-1-1 record, 234 saves, 18GA, 2.21GAA, .929SV%, .918 HDSV%
Tristan Jarry, 10GP, 7-3-0 record, 288 saves, 26GA, 2.58GAA, .917SV%, .808HDS%

Even Strength Numbers:
Murray, 8GP, 198 saves, 15GA, 2.26GAA, .930SV%, .902 HDSV%
Jarry, 10GP, 254 saved, 21GA, 2.46GAA, .924SV%, .818 HDSV%

Note on 2/17:
2 goals and the PK are the difference right now between Murray and Jarry
--Jarry has cooled from his pre-ASG performance, however, he and Murray are almost dead even
--At even strength, if Jarry stopped 2 more goals, their EV SV% and GAA would both be nearly identical. 2 goals is the difference in their numbers right now.
--Jarry also has given up 2 more goals on the PP than Murray. PP goals are often on the defense and PK, not the goalie.

Note2: I'll be re-adding Post-ASG tracking, as well as game by game tracking post-ASG only in the next day or so.
Last edited by FLPensFan on Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:07 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby Stanislav21 on Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:26 am

I'm sure this is a stupid question, but ... how is your GAA calculated?

(Edit: I understand 2.95 assuming it's the extra minute in overtime. What about 3.01?)
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby Hatrick on Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:41 am

Stanislav21 wrote:I'm sure this is a stupid question, but ... how is your GAA calculated?

(Edit: I understand 2.95 assuming it's the extra minute in overtime. What about 3.01?)

my guess is the delayed penalt(ies) that led to him being off the ice for a couple seconds.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:23 am

Yeah, I'm using Natural Stat Trick for the stats. Murray was shown as missing 8 seconds of the full 60, likely from delayed penalties.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby longtimefan on Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:29 am

Obviously the sample size is very small, but a look at the numbers give credence to the argument that stats lie. Neither had a great night based solely on the stats. Yet, both were outstanding during crunch time. Listening to the post game on the way home Friday night, Bourque kept talking about the ability to make the big save when it was needed. I also believe that Sully alluded to it in his post game presser. That's something stats can't tell you. Murray's 5 on 5 stats were pretty brutal, even though both gave up 3 goals. Letting one by on the PP makes Jarry's stats look head and shoulders better than Murray's. Yet it's easy to make the case that both goalies stole their respective games. Yes, stats are important, and play a role. And the sample size should smooth things out over time. But, more than any other position, I think the eye test is the determining factor when choosing a goalie. Both are playing great, but, statistically, the goal given up by Murray in Colorado with Landeskog's shot from behind the blue line counts the same as a 3rd chance goal from the crease. Stats play a part, but have to be taken with a grain of salt.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby johnnews on Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:41 am

I think it's going to come down to the eye test. We'll all know who should be starting in April based on that.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby no name on Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:43 am

There is a comfort in playing Murray knowing he has been in the playoff and can stand the pressure cooker it can be. But up to this point Jarry has been the better of the 2. I don't envy the decision Sully has to make.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby Puck-Lurker on Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:23 pm

no name wrote:There is a comfort in playing Murray knowing he has been in the playoff and can stand the pressure cooker it can be. But up to this point Jarry has been the better of the 2. I don't envy the decision Sully has to make.

Unless Jarry can pull clearly ahead and Murray fumbles at a key moment, Murray has the net come playoff time.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby Liverlips on Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:39 pm

Puck-Lurker wrote:
no name wrote:There is a comfort in playing Murray knowing he has been in the playoff and can stand the pressure cooker it can be. But up to this point Jarry has been the better of the 2. I don't envy the decision Sully has to make.

Unless Jarry can pull clearly ahead and Murray fumbles at a key moment, Murray has the net come playoff time.


That’s what I imagine most of us assume will be the case. Maybe my memory is a bit faded already but this feels a bit familiar with 2016/17 playoffs (though hopefully no one will be injured in warmups before Game 1!)
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby SteelCityFan on Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:24 pm

Big test for Muzz tonight. Hope he’s on his game.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:02 pm

Updated numbers on original post...
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby SteelCityFan on Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:38 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Updated numbers on original post...


Thanks for the update!
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:17 pm

Updated...
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:44 am

Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby murphydump55 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:13 pm

I posted this in another thread. Since Jan 1 2020

Since Jan 1st 2020

Murray has an all strengths save % of .924.
Jarry has an all strengths save % of .910.

Murray has a GAA of 2.38
Jarry has a GAA of 2.75

Murray has a high danger save % of .921
Jarry has a high danger save % of .774

At 5 v 5

Murray has a save% of .931
Jarry has a save % of .909

Murray has a GAA of 2.28
Jarry has a GAA of 2.83

Murray has a HD save % of .936
Jarry has a HD save % of .769

During this time, Murray has made 7 starts and Jarry 9. The majority of Murray's starts have come on the road.

Jarry was great and deserved his all star accolades, but he's also allowed 3 goals in 8 of his last 10 starts. To say Murray isn't outplaying Jarry lately probably isn't true. I know everyone wants to hate on Murray, and it was well deserved, but it's also time to realize when he's playing well and deserving of the starting role. I like the battle going on, it's healthy.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby murphydump55 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:23 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


You know better than to judge a goaltender by wins. It's like judging a pitcher by wins.

Murray's last 3 starts came against Tampa, Washington, and Tampa. Not exactly the easiest of opponents. He held the Lightning to 1 regulation time goal last game, and since you value wins, he beat the Caps. Prior to that he won 5 in a row! He's 6-1-1 in his last 8 and you cherry pick that he only has 1 win in his last 3? (especially with those opponents and an OT loss in there?)

Tampa is the hottest team in the league and Washington as we know is no slouch. Jarry is 5-3-1 in his last 9 games compared to Murray 6-1-1 in his last 8 since you wanted to relate to wins.

I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby brwi on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:32 pm

murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.


I think so too. Sullivan is giving Murray a chance to show he's #1 on this team and Jarry may have cooled a little but is still playing very well. If they spilt the remaining starts 50/50 or close to it, let's see who emerges if either as a clear-cut choice. Right now, I think Jarry is still the #1 but the gap has definitely closed with Murray's much improved performances and Jarry slightly coming down.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby murphydump55 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm

brwi wrote:
murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.


I think so too. Sullivan is giving Murray a chance to show he's #1 on this team and Jarry may have cooled a little but is still playing very well. If they spilt the remaining starts 50/50 or close to it, let's see who emerges if either as a clear-cut choice. Right now, I think Jarry is still the #1 but the gap has definitely closed with Murray's much improved performances and Jarry slightly coming down.



Jarry has been average since the new year. An all strengths .910 save% is probably right around league average while his GAA hasn't been great. His 5 v 5 numbers have struggled and his HD save% is killing him.

I'm not saying average is a bad thing. I'm of the belief that you shouldn't overpay for goaltending. League average goaltending should give you every chance to win, and Jarry is giving them just that lately. Murray has been better lately, play the hot hand and let it figure itself out.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:47 pm

murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


You know better than to judge a goaltender by wins. It's like judging a pitcher by wins.

Murray's last 3 starts came against Tampa, Washington, and Tampa. Not exactly the easiest of opponents. He held the Lightning to 1 regulation time goal last game, and since you value wins, he beat the Caps. Prior to that he won 5 in a row! He's 6-1-1 in his last 8 and you cherry pick that he only has 1 win in his last 3? (especially with those opponents and an OT loss in there?)

Tampa is the hottest team in the league and Washington as we know is no slouch. Jarry is 5-3-1 in his last 9 games compared to Murray 6-1-1 in his last 8 since you wanted to relate to wins.

I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to judge. Just pointing out. Sometimes it is the opponent. Sometimes a team seems to play better in front of certain goalies for unknown reasons. Sometimes that a complete a myth and it just looks that way. I would like to see Jarry play against some of the tougher competition. And I have noticed the multiple games with 3 or more goals allowed by Jarry.

I've also noticed that nobody, and I mean nobody, seems to be talking about Murray's health, or more importantly, lack of health issues this season. It was a big key to his success moving forward. Whether it has just been luck or what, a healthy Murray shouldn't be over looked. It also seems like the trend is....Murray just isn't a great first half goalie. I took a look at Matt Murray's Even Strength numbers from Oct-Dec each year, versus January-April (regular season)

Oct-Dec(15-16 through 19-20): 129 Games, .918SV%, 2.45GAA
Jan-Apr(15-16 through 19-20): 101 Games, .929SV%, 2.26GAA
I'm not an expert in calculating GSAA, but Murray had 2 negative values (one very large negative, this season) in the 1st half of the 5 seasons. He had no negative GSAA values in the 2nd half of the 5 seasons.

Murph, in your personal opinion, what should GMJR do this summer with the goaltending? You really can't keep all 3 again next year. Do you stay with Murray, pay the higher cap hit at the possible cost of depth at other positions (3rd pairing defense most likely), or do you think Jarry/DeSmith combined for almost half as much AAV as Murray is the better plan for the team?
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:51 pm

murphydump55 wrote:
brwi wrote:
murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.


I think so too. Sullivan is giving Murray a chance to show he's #1 on this team and Jarry may have cooled a little but is still playing very well. If they spilt the remaining starts 50/50 or close to it, let's see who emerges if either as a clear-cut choice. Right now, I think Jarry is still the #1 but the gap has definitely closed with Murray's much improved performances and Jarry slightly coming down.



His 5 v 5 numbers have struggled and his HD save% is killing him.


The HD Save% is a bit misleading until both players get some more games and shots against them. Before I updated for this game, Murray was around .938 and Jarry at his current .847. The difference however, was I think Murray gave up 1 goal less goal on 2 more shots. With so few shots, the swings are going to be pretty big.

EDIT: But I do see if you look at it starting in 2020 (not the ASG break like I have), Jarry's HDSV% is still bad, at .786. 12 goals on 44 shots I think, versus 5 goals on 46 shots, .902 HDSV% for Murray
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby murphydump55 on Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:59 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated. Murray's numbers overall are improving, but, he has only 1 win in his 3 starts. Jarry has won both of his post-ASG games. I'm expecting Jarry to start Friday, but wouldn't be shocked if Sullivan went back to Murray.


You know better than to judge a goaltender by wins. It's like judging a pitcher by wins.

Murray's last 3 starts came against Tampa, Washington, and Tampa. Not exactly the easiest of opponents. He held the Lightning to 1 regulation time goal last game, and since you value wins, he beat the Caps. Prior to that he won 5 in a row! He's 6-1-1 in his last 8 and you cherry pick that he only has 1 win in his last 3? (especially with those opponents and an OT loss in there?)

Tampa is the hottest team in the league and Washington as we know is no slouch. Jarry is 5-3-1 in his last 9 games compared to Murray 6-1-1 in his last 8 since you wanted to relate to wins.

I think the goaltending battle is healthy and will only make the team better. Internal competition is a good thing. I think you're going to see Andersen return to Toronto looking much better now that Campbell is there pushing him.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to judge. Just pointing out. Sometimes it is the opponent. Sometimes a team seems to play better in front of certain goalies for unknown reasons. Sometimes that a complete a myth and it just looks that way. I would like to see Jarry play against some of the tougher competition. And I have noticed the multiple games with 3 or more goals allowed by Jarry.

I've also noticed that nobody, and I mean nobody, seems to be talking about Murray's health, or more importantly, lack of health issues this season. It was a big key to his success moving forward. Whether it has just been luck or what, a healthy Murray shouldn't be over looked. It also seems like the trend is....Murray just isn't a great first half goalie. I took a look at Matt Murray's Even Strength numbers from Oct-Dec each year, versus January-April (regular season)

Oct-Dec(15-16 through 19-20): 129 Games, .918SV%, 2.45GAA
Jan-Apr(15-16 through 19-20): 101 Games, .929SV%, 2.26GAA
I'm not an expert in calculating GSAA, but Murray had 2 negative values (one very large negative, this season) in the 1st half of the 5 seasons. He had no negative GSAA values in the 2nd half of the 5 seasons.

Murph, in your personal opinion, what should GMJR do this summer with the goaltending? You really can't keep all 3 again next year. Do you stay with Murray, pay the higher cap hit at the possible cost of depth at other positions (3rd pairing defense most likely), or do you think Jarry/DeSmith combined for almost half as much AAV as Murray is the better plan for the team?


I can’t say until I see how Jarry finishes the season. He’s had a great first half but hasn’t been as sharp as of late. Still not sure I’m sold on him. The next couple months could change that.

That being said I’m not on board for overpaying for an inconsistent Murray either. If Jarry can rebound to his 2019 play and up that save % again, I’m probably good for a lesser cap hit with him.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby Southern Fan on Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:41 pm

14 games in a row with the goalies giving up 3 or less. And Boston twice, Tampa twice and Washington in that 14 games. With two guys playing close enough to have a debate, they should both be fresh for the playoffs.

The five guys in front of them are a bigger issue when they get scored on.
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:55 am

Updated stats...
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby pens_CT on Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:03 am

FLPensFan wrote:Updated stats...


The number of high danger shots, 24 in three games for each goalie sounds like a high number for a team that wants to go deep into the playoffs. Is there any way to compare that number against a couple of teams that are considered "good" defensively?
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Re: Post ASG Penguins Goalie Battle Tracking

Postby FLPensFan on Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:16 pm

pens_CT wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Updated stats...


The number of high danger shots, 24 in three games for each goalie sounds like a high number for a team that wants to go deep into the playoffs. Is there any way to compare that number against a couple of teams that are considered "good" defensively?

What do you want to use as your measurement for "good" defensively? Low GAA, Low GA/60, or something else?

--So, Boston is best in the league in GA/G. From 1/30 to yesterday, they've played 8 games (Penguins only 6). Boston has given up 26 total HD Shots against between Rask/Halak, with 3 goals. This is at even strength. Murray/Jarry have faced 48 HD Shots against, giving up 6 goals.

--Columbus has also played 8 games from 1/30 to 2/15. They are 2nd in GA/G. Between Merzlikens/Kivlenieks, 28 total HD Shots, 2 goals against at EV.

--Dallas is 3rd in GA/G. They have also played 8 games. 64 total HD Shots, 6 goals against for Dallas duo.

--Tampa is 4th in GA/G. 9 games played, 57 total HD shots, 6 goals for Tampa duo.

--Arizona is 5th in GA/G. 9 games played, 58 HD shots, 12 goals against for Arizona. Yuck.

Pittsburgh is 6th overall in the league in GA per Game. On the year, Pittsburgh has 371 High Danger Shots Against at Even Strength. That is 23rd most, or 8th best.
Since 1/30, they have give up 48 HD Shots against, which still ranks them 23rd, or 8th best, during that time, but that isn't normalizing games played. Normalizing for Games Played by using HDSA/60, Penguins are facing 9.96 HDSA/60. That is 4th highest in the league for teams post all-star break.

I think a lot of it has to do with the quality of competition they have faced...In the 6 games, 1 against Philly, 1 against Washington, and 2 against Tampa.
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