Sigwolf wrote:The thing I don't understand... why don't people realize there is *no* point total, within reason, that guarantees making or not making the playoffs. Sure you can compare against statistical averages, but that does not insure what qualifies this season. Fact... the Pens are not in playoff position right now. Fact... the Pens are exactly 1 point out of a playoff position right now. Fiction... the Pens *must* win 2 out of every 3 remaining games to make the playoffs, otherwise they're *doomed*. Maybe they do, maybe the don't, that is purely speculation at this point. Look, they are no more in an impossible playoff situation right now than they would be in a playoff lock situation if they were 2nd in the division with Columbus' 34 points (Pit 1 game in hand). They have to straighten out some things, and likely have to finish a bit stronger than they have played at this point. They do not need to accomplish a miracle, nor is making the playoffs even an unlikely proposition at this point. They can't take it for granted, and need to work for it a bit. That is really the long and short of it.
There are statistics available based on past seasons that give you a pretty good idea of what teams need to do in order to make the playoffs. No stat is 100%, so sure, saying they need to win 2 out of every 3 isn't an absolute must, but it is a pretty solid baseline.
They have 30 points right now and 54 games left to play. If you want better numbers, I can tell you there is almost a 0% chance that playing only 500 hockey the rest of the way will get them in. 27 more wins and 27 loses would put them at 84 points.
Since Sidney Crosby came into the league, only THREE teams have made the playoffs with less than 90 points: 15-16 Wild had 87 points, 09-10 Flyers & 09-10 Canadians both had 88 points.
Again, not impossible that, with a lot of teams struggling and tight standings, that it can't happen again this season. But, looking at the odds, the chances of teams making playoffs with less than 90 points is extremely low. It's only happened in 2 years out of 13....15% of the time.