What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby Pitts on Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:24 am

MRandall25 wrote:
Godric wrote:
MRandall25 wrote:
TheBigLebowski wrote:Drafting for need is foolish.


Um, what? That what the entire draft is for.


Most generally, drafting the best player avaliable regardless of position and roster needs is the best business


"The best player available", as mikey has pointed out, is extremely subjective.

Typically, if you don't want to ruin your team, you draft what you need, and you take the best guy at what you need (especially if you're in the Pens' position and don't really have many high draft picks).

I've never known any team to draft for need. By the time that "need" player develops things could be very different. We may be lamenting the abundance of defensive prospects taken lately, but look what Goligoski got us. The Pens will be able to deal several of those d-men for more current needs when they arise.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby DesertPenguin on Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:43 am

99% of the time, I will agree that you take BPA, and I accept that that is what the Pens did in this draft while taking Pouliot and Matta.

At this point now, going into next year's draft, the Pens need to think long and hard before taking another defenseman in the first or second. We have so many good defensemen in the system now that there just isn't enough room to develop them all in WBS and at prospect camps. You can only dress so many players and the cupboard is full of D men. Its time to restock the shelf with forward prospects in hopes to develop a few of them too.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby JoseCuervo on Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:51 am

This isn't the NFL or NBA draft where you have players ready to contribute professionally. You won't be seeing most of the players drafted in the NHL for at least a few years. You can't really draft for need because you don't know what your need will be in a few years. You don't draft for need.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby DelPen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:22 am

Depending how many seasons they go back we have 2 1st round and one 2nd round playoff loss in the last three years. If they go by 5 years we would be in the bottom 5 of chances no doubt.

As for drafting defensemen, they bring us proven players like James Neal and Chris Kunitz faster than developing them.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby no name on Sat Nov 10, 2012 12:44 pm

On a side note when you look what we got for Goligoski and Whitney, its not a bad practice getting hightly skilled offensive D man. I read alot on that Filip Foresberg and he seemed to be a sulid top 10 pick in the draft. I didn;t see a mock draft that didn't have him going in the top 10. On some boards DP went as low as 6 or as high as 15th. He is more of a gamble with his size. If you draft a 6'3 guy and he doesn't develop into a offensive d man, you can still get a NHL quality defensive d man. Where with DP if he doesn't develop into a offensive force he won't make it into the NHL.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby no name on Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:15 pm

I looked at a bunch of NHL mock drafts here are where they were projected to go.

Matta 17-13-8-10-20 *22nd
DP 23-18-13-18-14 *8th
Forsberg- 4-4-4-6-2 *11th
Teravainen 7-7-9-11 *18th

Not sure what to make of this. I guess we won't know for another 3 or 4 years. last number with a * is where they actually ended up getting drafted at of course.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby mikey287 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:23 pm

no name wrote:If you draft a 6'3 guy and he doesn't develop into a offensive d man, you can still get a NHL quality defensive d man. Where with DP if he doesn't develop into a offensive force he won't make it into the NHL.


I've never heard this reasoning before.

For the former: I'd suggest calling up Nolan Baumgartner, Ric Jackman, Mathieu Biron, Jeff Jillson, Anton Babchuk and Shawn Belle to take another whack at this NHL thing...

Additionally, I'd probably tell Kris Russell, Tobias Enstrom (looks better defensively than offensive babysitting for snack shack all the time) and Andy Greene to hit the bricks...

Players can adapt, but it has to be the right circumstances...case by case basis...
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby no name on Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:45 pm

mikey287 wrote:
no name wrote:If you draft a 6'3 guy and he doesn't develop into a offensive d man, you can still get a NHL quality defensive d man. Where with DP if he doesn't develop into a offensive force he won't make it into the NHL.


I've never heard this reasoning before.

For the former: I'd suggest calling up Nolan Baumgartner, Ric Jackman, Mathieu Biron, Jeff Jillson, Anton Babchuk and Shawn Belle to take another whack at this NHL thing...

Additionally, I'd probably tell Kris Russell, Tobias Enstrom (looks better defensively than offensive babysitting for snack shack all the time) and Andy Greene to hit the bricks...

Players can adapt, but it has to be the right circumstances...case by case basis...


DP is 5'11 if he doesn't produce offensively its not realistic he is going to develop a physical shutdown game. A guy who is 6'3 could do it easier.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby mikey287 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 2:25 pm

Physical? Probably not. Shutdown? Not impossible. He's no more likely or unlikely to understand that role than someone 4 inches taller than him. Or else Baumgartner and Biron and Babchuk would have just been changed to defensive players. Andy Greene, great recent example, an offensive defenseman that has been unable to carry the mail offensively (didn't need to in the playoffs with Salvador playing above his means), instead adapted his game using his sense, positioning and skating ability to become a reliable player that logged a ton of meaningful ES minutes. Greene is about 5'10".
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby opie22002 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 7:12 pm

Are there any Sindey Crosby type players that we can draft this year when we win the lottery?
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby DelPen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:46 pm

mikey287 wrote:Physical? Probably not. Shutdown? Not impossible. He's no more likely or unlikely to understand that role than someone 4 inches taller than him. Or else Baumgartner and Biron and Babchuk would have just been changed to defensive players. Andy Greene, great recent example, an offensive defenseman that has been unable to carry the mail offensively (didn't need to in the playoffs with Salvador playing above his means), instead adapted his game using his sense, positioning and skating ability to become a reliable player that logged a ton of meaningful ES minutes. Greene is about 5'10".


Scuderi is 6-1, Doughty 6-2. Puoliot can still grow another inch or two. Height isn't the most necessary aspect of being a shut down defenseman, intelligence and speed can overcome size anyday.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby mikey287 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 10:36 pm

Correct. Assuming that speed meant skating in general.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby steelhammer on Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:05 pm

Rylan wrote:BPA is better period. When you draft for need you either end up reaching or glossing over flaws to sell yourself on said player. When this happens you end up missing far more than you hit.


The idea that BPA and "need" are mutually exclusive entities is a little bit puzzling. What if the BPA for every pick was a goaltender? Are you comfortable drafting 7 goaltenders since they were the BPA? Add to that, was Sean Maguire really the BPA at pick #113? Really?!?
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby BurghersAndDogsSports on Sun Nov 11, 2012 1:21 pm

DelPen wrote:Depending how many seasons they go back we have 2 1st round and one 2nd round playoff loss in the last three years. If they go by 5 years we would be in the bottom 5 of chances no doubt.

As for drafting defensemen, they bring us proven players like James Neal and Chris Kunitz faster than developing them.


I completely disagree with the last part. It's semantics really. If we trade say Despres now we don't get a forward quicker? These guys have been in our system for years. We have been developing our dmen for awhile now and none will get us anything remotely close to a solid forward unless our guy is NHL proven OR we get a rental type playoff guy/free agent back. The Whitney and Gogo examples are fine, but we had them for 7 and 5 years. Quicker is relative to drafting a forward prospect now but the overall timeframe is long and drawn out compared to drafting your own forward.

on this topic, I have zero problem with any one specific pick we made, really. They seemed to get at least arguably a reasonably ranked pick in terms of draft spot. In the NHL it's usually best to take the best player. My only issue with the Pens is right now in 2 years we will have 3 forwards under contract and nobody in our system to fill out roster spots.

While it is nice to have a surplus of defensive prospects, remember that not all are going to fulfill promise and we can't expect high return trades everytime. I would just be more comfortable moving ahead without having to count on trades or FA's to fill out every spot.

Again I am not talking about any specific pick, or one guy over another. It's just in sports usually counting on secondary ways to fill out a roster will backfire eventually. One bad trade can kill a lot of this plan, one or two mediocre or over priced limited FA summers can hurt a lot when counting on it, especially if trying to fill out 3rd and 4th lines with a tight cap - which we will have. It would be nice to have some on entry contracts to help ease that void.

Hope I am wrong but just nervous about how this can possibly play out.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby pcm on Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:41 pm

There's a diminishing returns on the advantages of drafting and developing defensemen into assets, as the more defensemen in the system, the less ice time will be available to them individually to develop. The NHL employs twice as many forwards as defensemen. There's obviously a bias in the Pens front office towards D as a safer pick for their top-end selections, but that's gotta change unless the Pens start trading their D prospects for forward prospects, instead of waiting till they've had a year or two in the NHL as they did with Whitney and Gogo.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby ILikeTurtles on Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:58 pm

Get first overall, draft Seth Jones. Get all the Portland defensemen!
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby DontToewsMeBro on Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:37 pm

Has anybody ever provided any evidence or study that taking the "best player available" is always the best long-term drafting strategy for a hockey franchise? A lot of posters scoff at the idea of drafting based on current or future needs in the system, but can't seem to formulate a rigorous argument for why "BPA" is the dominant strategy aside from, "well every team does it that way so it must be right."

A lot of sports teams seem to operate on a basis of "it's always been done this way," without knowing the reasons behind their stance. That doesn't make it correct. Forecasting future needs and drafting based on those needs may actually yield the highest returns per draft pick, but teams don't operate this way because that involves higher risk and actual math. My point is, don't discount other drafting strategies just because the consensus strategy is different.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby no name on Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:32 pm

I say you always go with the best asset availible. If you get to many players at a position you can move them around or trade for the peice you need. I personally would go with this line of thought rather than Picking a LW just becase in 2 years i am hoping he fits my need. If there is a better defenceman or center availible you got to go with the better asset.

The NFL draft is so much different than the NHL draft. That lw you got at the 5th round 2 years ago has almost as much chance as a 3rd rounder. Wher as in the NFL it is just a bit more predictable.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby Gaucho on Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:42 pm

DontToewsMeBro wrote:Has anybody ever provided any evidence or study that taking the "best player available" is always the best long-term drafting strategy for a hockey franchise? A lot of posters scoff at the idea of drafting based on current or future needs in the system, but can't seem to formulate a rigorous argument for why "BPA" is the dominant strategy aside from, "well every team does it that way so it must be right."



Here's my argument: Craig Hillier.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby mikey287 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:50 pm

DontToewsMeBro wrote:Has anybody ever provided any evidence or study that taking the "best player available" is always the best long-term drafting strategy for a hockey franchise? A lot of posters scoff at the idea of drafting based on current or future needs in the system, but can't seem to formulate a rigorous argument for why "BPA" is the dominant strategy aside from, "well every team does it that way so it must be right."

A lot of sports teams seem to operate on a basis of "it's always been done this way," without knowing the reasons behind their stance. That doesn't make it correct. Forecasting future needs and drafting based on those needs may actually yield the highest returns per draft pick, but teams don't operate this way because that involves higher risk and actual math. My point is, don't discount other drafting strategies just because the consensus strategy is different.


How would you create a study when you don't have access to all (any?) of the pertinent information? Teams don't look at the same information fans do...these ISS and CSS and whatever else, that's what fans talk about...scouts on NHL teams don't sit around in a room and go, "yeah, well, we got #4 and #29 and #44 with our first three picks, so there!" ...they have their own list, with much more detail...they don't use that thing really. It's an ok "watchlist" in September or whenever but it's nothing of great note.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby DontToewsMeBro on Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:34 pm

mikey287 wrote:
DontToewsMeBro wrote:Has anybody ever provided any evidence or study that taking the "best player available" is always the best long-term drafting strategy for a hockey franchise? A lot of posters scoff at the idea of drafting based on current or future needs in the system, but can't seem to formulate a rigorous argument for why "BPA" is the dominant strategy aside from, "well every team does it that way so it must be right."

A lot of sports teams seem to operate on a basis of "it's always been done this way," without knowing the reasons behind their stance. That doesn't make it correct. Forecasting future needs and drafting based on those needs may actually yield the highest returns per draft pick, but teams don't operate this way because that involves higher risk and actual math. My point is, don't discount other drafting strategies just because the consensus strategy is different.


How would you create a study when you don't have access to all (any?) of the pertinent information? Teams don't look at the same information fans do...these ISS and CSS and whatever else, that's what fans talk about...scouts on NHL teams don't sit around in a room and go, "yeah, well, we got #4 and #29 and #44 with our first three picks, so there!" ...they have their own list, with much more detail...they don't use that thing really. It's an ok "watchlist" in September or whenever but it's nothing of great note.


Professional scouts can only watch so many players, and with today's technology the average person has access to much more information about worldwide talent than scouts did twenty years ago. It wouldn't be feasible to have such a "study", but by the same argument how do you know what scouts use to differentiate between draft prospects? I would have to imagine that they have some sort of ranking mechanism. They have to know who they are going with in some rough order. I'm not saying that the ranks are set in stone, as in this guy is No. 3, this guy is No. 4 (and so on), but the rankings among teams are definitely there. To clarify I was never advocating using any of these rankings to draft players, only arguing that drafting BPA may not always be a dominant strategy.

As another poster already pointed out, there exists diminishing returns to continuing to draft at the same position no matter what your prospect pool looks like. We might hear that having a logjam at the defensemen position is a "good problem to have" but in actuality it is not. There is some optimal number of defensive prospects a team should have so that they get enough minor league playing time to develop and where your leftover resources (draft picks, time, etc.) are better spent on another position. Now what that optimal number is I'm not sure, I was merely offering a proof of existence.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby mikey287 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:02 pm

DontToewsMeBro wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
DontToewsMeBro wrote:Has anybody ever provided any evidence or study that taking the "best player available" is always the best long-term drafting strategy for a hockey franchise? A lot of posters scoff at the idea of drafting based on current or future needs in the system, but can't seem to formulate a rigorous argument for why "BPA" is the dominant strategy aside from, "well every team does it that way so it must be right."

A lot of sports teams seem to operate on a basis of "it's always been done this way," without knowing the reasons behind their stance. That doesn't make it correct. Forecasting future needs and drafting based on those needs may actually yield the highest returns per draft pick, but teams don't operate this way because that involves higher risk and actual math. My point is, don't discount other drafting strategies just because the consensus strategy is different.


How would you create a study when you don't have access to all (any?) of the pertinent information? Teams don't look at the same information fans do...these ISS and CSS and whatever else, that's what fans talk about...scouts on NHL teams don't sit around in a room and go, "yeah, well, we got #4 and #29 and #44 with our first three picks, so there!" ...they have their own list, with much more detail...they don't use that thing really. It's an ok "watchlist" in September or whenever but it's nothing of great note.


Professional scouts can only watch so many players, and with today's technology the average person has access to much more information about worldwide talent than scouts did twenty years ago. It wouldn't be feasible to have such a "study", but by the same argument how do you know what scouts use to differentiate between draft prospects? I would have to imagine that they have some sort of ranking mechanism. They have to know who they are going with in some rough order. I'm not saying that the ranks are set in stone, as in this guy is No. 3, this guy is No. 4 (and so on), but the rankings among teams are definitely there. To clarify I was never advocating using any of these rankings to draft players, only arguing that drafting BPA may not always be a dominant strategy.

As another poster already pointed out, there exists diminishing returns to continuing to draft at the same position no matter what your prospect pool looks like. We might hear that having a logjam at the defensemen position is a "good problem to have" but in actuality it is not. There is some optimal number of defensive prospects a team should have so that they get enough minor league playing time to develop and where your leftover resources (draft picks, time, etc.) are better spent on another position. Now what that optimal number is I'm not sure, I was merely offering a proof of existence.


Different teams, different philosophies, different systems. Some teams go: A prospects, B prospects, C...etc. Some say, "Franchise", "Impact", "quality NHLer", "NHLer+", "NHLer", "role player", "depth", "AHL", ..."no draft"...some say, "elite", "very good", "good", "fair", etc. Sorted out as such. Decisions are made how to utilize draft picks while making sound organizational decisions. BPA strategy is most effective in the first round, when the difference in perceived talent/upside level can be higher. As you slide down, round by round, the talent evens out, the risk factor becomes higher, the organization needs can be back-filled on a few chances with good upside, instead of big one chance with some upside (Marcantuoni and Zlobin vs. Teravainen; Pens get better back for their buck with MM and AZ than TT in their opinion).

If you see Matia Marcantuoni and go..."well, he's got about the same basic upside as Teravainen more or less, he's a project too, he's got a [insert negative here] that Teravainen doesn't have but he [insert positive here] better than Teravainen and we can get him in the fourth round instead of using 8th overall on him and we don't see that big of a difference..." See, here's the thing, Marcantuoni, in the year leading up to his draft year was considered a potential top-10 pick and once had one of those shiny numbers placed next to his name (in fact, ISS from October rated MM ahead of Galchenyuk) too, but he fell on some hard times, a bit of injury troubles, a bit snake-bitten, whatever and he tumbled. But no one seems to know that. They ignore junior hockey almost all year (maybe they watch the WJCs when a college bowl game isn't on), grab the final ranks at the end of the year, look at the list of 1-200 or 1-30 or whatever and then hold it up next to the draft and go, "OMG, I can't believe [player I've never seen or heard of] went at [# => 3 from ranking place] when he should have gone around [# =< 3 spots from ranking]!"

As for the last paragraph, it's been discussed to death here, I'll just say this in a blissfully simple way: the thing about quality skaters is...they're always in demand.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby BurghersAndDogsSports on Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:52 am

All of this may be true, false or opinion. None of it matters to me. What matters is the bottom line: we have no forwards to take roster spots in 2 and 3 years with only 3 guys under contract. This will cause us to either have to sign FA's to play top roles and also at an inflated 3rd and 4th line rate rate instead of filling out a roster with entry contracts causing whats going to be a tight cap even tighter....... or trade our defensive guys who have proven themselves (at that point one or maybe two) to make sure we get potential value, while all of our reamining d will then be 1st or 2nd year players unless we sign some more inflated FA contracts. Assuming they all progress in year 5 or 6 we might have enough trade bait + progressed defense to fill out our d and trade for forwards.

Immay off by a year but above, as of right now is how we have to build a team. Sensing it would be easier, easier on the cap and quicker to draft a few forwards at some point.
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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby Big Easy Pens Fan on Wed Nov 14, 2012 8:03 am

JoseCuervo wrote:This isn't the NFL or NBA draft where you have players ready to contribute professionally. You won't be seeing most of the players drafted in the NHL for at least a few years. You can't really draft for need because you don't know what your need will be in a few years. You don't draft for need.


I don't necessarily agree here. Difference being that if you're drafting high enough (1st 3 let's say), you can almost always find an offensive player that can comtribute professionally from day one. Not necessarily true of a defensive player. The "D" guy normally needs some time in the minors. But after you leave the higher draft positions, then Jose's quote fits an and you don't draft for need.

But let's hope it doesn't come to this. :scared:

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Re: What if there is no season and we get the 1st pick

Postby no name on Fri Nov 16, 2012 5:09 pm

Pouliot is playing in the WHL allstar vs russia series. -3 so far, by far the smoothest skater on the ice. Great offensive instinks. Is getting the top powerplay minutes and generating chances. Looks lost in his defenisve zone in this game. skill level is great if he can develop his defenive game he has a chance.His

Looks like a all or nothing prospect, he develops his defensive game you got your self another Kris Letang, if he doesn't he will never see the NHL.
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