Stock Market

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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:26 am

Gaucho wrote:Diversity is good, but what if I'm just looking for something that I don't have to worry about or look after? Would it be foolish to just buy gold and be done with it?


you could say that same thing about technology stocks in the late 90s and real estate in the past.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Gaucho on Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:30 am

Meh, might as well just burn it all on blackjack and hookers.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Pitt87 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:14 am

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:
Gaucho wrote:Diversity is good, but what if I'm just looking for something that I don't have to worry about or look after? Would it be foolish to just buy gold and be done with it?


you could say that same thing about technology stocks in the late 90s and real estate in the past.


'Diversity' isn't what you are seeking, what you need is limited exposure to unnecessary risk. Better than just buying gold would be a fund that includes gold, or and ETF that is physically backed. I think there's an SPDR fund thats gold-backed, and you could probably locate holders and fund managers that own it.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:16 am

supposedly, JP morgan is going to start an etf backed by copper
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:01 pm

Watch those ETF's

Make sure that they track the asset class accurately.

Most ETF's erode over time. They're not set up as "buy and hold" type investment vehicles but are better suited to short term trading, the exact opposite of what Gaucho is looking for.

Oh, and Gaucho, you are looking for diversity. If you were just looking for 'capital preservation' you could invest the money in T.I.P.S. and be done with it. (although in your case you'd have to factor in the FX dollar/euro spread as well.)
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:04 am

Don't get caught up in todays rally folks.

It's a good opportunity to sell some of your dogs into the strength, but over the next fews days you're going to see a lot of the 'fiscal cliff' enthusiasm ebb as articles such as this one hit the mainstream media:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

We probably *will* have a Janurary effect but the market will flucuate quite a bit getting there. Especially over the next week or so.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Alejandro Rojas on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:28 am

The market is completely fake right now. Nothing is as it seems.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:36 am

Alejandro Rojas wrote:The market is completely fake right now. Nothing is as it seems.

Explain what you mean by that please. If you don't mind.

I would never describe the overall stock market as 'fake', maybe driven by irrational exuberance, or irrational fear, but certainly not 'fake'.

I'm curious to hear what you mean by that.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Troy Loney on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:40 am

I'd say maybe flooded with excess cash and inflated equity values...so a bubble maybe? Our stock is trading around $60 right now, but a lot of analysts have the true value at more around $70. So I feel like it's altleast not a bubble in the financial sector.

Also, I heard an interesting segment on the radio that said a lot of companies, who are flush with cash have been using that money to buy back equity. So I'm thinking that could inflate stock prices, but at the same time wouldn't that be a legit market demand and a positive upward push on prices...not just inflation?
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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:46 am

companies that buy back stock are soff.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:47 am

Glad you posted that article. I must say, though...I thought for sure Washington was going to 100% screw things up and not pass anything...I was anticipating a large drop and maybe looking to buy in when it did. Wondering how much of an opportunity the debt ceiling debates will present over the next month or two.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby thehockeyguru on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:06 pm

Troy Loney wrote:I'd say maybe flooded with excess cash and inflated equity values...so a bubble maybe? Our stock is trading around $60 right now, but a lot of analysts have the true value at more around $70. So I feel like it's altleast not a bubble in the financial sector.

Also, I heard an interesting segment on the radio that said a lot of companies, who are flush with cash have been using that money to buy back equity. So I'm thinking that could inflate stock prices, but at the same time wouldn't that be a legit market demand and a positive upward push on prices...not just inflation?


Inflate stock prices? To me companies buying back their stock is a sign that they think their stock is undervalued.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:10 pm

Yeah, a company buying back stock also increases EPS for the stock left out there (that you would have). Don't see where a company buying back stock is bad.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:14 pm

kenny the kangaroo would rather see the money in shareholders' pockets in the form of dividends instead of stock buybacks.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Troy Loney on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:16 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:I'd say maybe flooded with excess cash and inflated equity values...so a bubble maybe? Our stock is trading around $60 right now, but a lot of analysts have the true value at more around $70. So I feel like it's altleast not a bubble in the financial sector.

Also, I heard an interesting segment on the radio that said a lot of companies, who are flush with cash have been using that money to buy back equity. So I'm thinking that could inflate stock prices, but at the same time wouldn't that be a legit market demand and a positive upward push on prices...not just inflation?


Inflate stock prices? To me companies buying back their stock is a sign that they think their stock is undervalued.


Well, increase stock prices, increase demand and reduce available supply. In that sense, the gist of that radio piece was that US companies are flush with about a trillion dollars of cash on hand...instead of dividends or distributing money to employees with bonuses or raises...they're buying back stock.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Troy Loney on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:17 pm

KennyTheKangaroo wrote:kenny the kangaroo would rather see the money in shareholders' pockets in the form of dividends instead of stock buybacks.


Troy Loney would rather the money be distributed to the employees in the form of wage increases. That would certainly boost the economy.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ExPatriatePen on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:19 pm

thehockeyguru wrote:
Troy Loney wrote:I'd say maybe flooded with excess cash and inflated equity values...so a bubble maybe? Our stock is trading around $60 right now, but a lot of analysts have the true value at more around $70. So I feel like it's altleast not a bubble in the financial sector.

Also, I heard an interesting segment on the radio that said a lot of companies, who are flush with cash have been using that money to buy back equity. So I'm thinking that could inflate stock prices, but at the same time wouldn't that be a legit market demand and a positive upward push on prices...not just inflation?


Inflate stock prices? To me companies buying back their stock is a sign that they think their stock is undervalued.


JeffDFD wrote:Yeah, a company buying back stock also increases EPS for the stock left out there (that you would have). Don't see where a company buying back stock is bad.


In theory, it's true that Stock repurchases are a positive sign that an "ongoing concern" believies it's stock is cheap relative to other financial instruments.

In practice, companies are notoriously horrible at timing those repurchases.

Having said that, many companies (particularly the Fortune 500) are currently able to float bond issues at rates that are less than those on 10 year Treasuries. That's a very rare and unique opportunity. In such a case it often makes sense for those organizations to actually float a bond issue and use the proceeds to buy back equity.

I think the current stock repurchases are more a result of the lack of other uses for cashflow (Investing back in their business - dicey in a low growth economy such as ours, or Bonds - currently at 'all time' lows, increasing dividends - which organizations must be careful to insure that those dividends are sustainable, or in acquistions), than any real belief that those equities are undervalued.

JMHO. (As always, Past performance is not an indication...)
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Re: Stock Market

Postby JeffDFD on Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:28 pm

I agree with most sentiments here...I love me some dividends as well and would rather have a company give me cash then repurchase stock, but all the tax discussions will greatly impact all of this. I am not 100% up to speed on what deal was recently just passed and how effective it will be, but before the deal there was a lot of talk that, if the taxes on dividends go up (and based on how high they may go for how many people) - companies will push more capital to stock buybacks instead of any dividend in order to increase shareholder value. They would rather increase the value of the stock through buybacks because any additional (and current) cash used for the dividend would essentially be increasing the governments cut and do less to put money in shareholder pockets
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:52 am

I see the market did ok yesterday....my primary IRA went up 2.45%.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby Fire0nice228 on Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:34 pm

I sat on a little bit of money for whichever way the deal went but I am now going to wait for this reaction to subside before making a buy. I'm glad to see F doing well finally.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:59 pm

What's up with Apple? It wasn't too long ago it was at 700. Also my OTC stock stinks, was hoping for something to hit with the marijuana laws, no dice.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby KennyTheKangaroo on Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:54 am

apple.

discuss.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 11:48 am

its interesting to watch. also i love you netflix. twas a fun day for options.
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Re: Stock Market

Postby ulf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:47 pm

if i would have held onto said options for one more day, i'd have a lot more money :(
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Re: Stock Market

Postby columbia on Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:53 pm

ulf wrote:What's up with Apple? It wasn't too long ago it was at 700. Also my OTC stock stinks, was hoping for something to hit with the marijuana laws, no dice.


Lack of a focused leadership
Android cutting into their market
Inability to be flexible enough to change the product line quickly enough
Cheapr tablets elsewhere
The desktop is dying
etc

One of my IRAs has 6% of the fund in Apple and I seriously need to think about rolling into another one
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