Contract Extensions - What values?

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Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:44 pm

So I figured since we have some down time between now and when playoffs start I would ask the board what they feel our UFA/RFA's will be signed/what amoutn?

Here is my guess at who and how much:

Jarry: $3.5M for 3 years
McCann: $3M for 3 years
Simon: $1.5M for 2 years

Thoughts?

I do also think Poulin, POJ, and Desmith are on my roster next year as well. I also traded Murray for AA rights and Bjustad for Pateryn (D from Minnesota) :D

Jake - Sid - AA
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Poulin - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extra: Simon

Dumo - Letang
JJ - Marino
Pettersson - Pateryn (traded him for Bjustad)
extas: Ruhwedel and POJ

Jarry
DeSmith
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Jim on Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:07 pm

AA is trash.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Wyopen on Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:21 pm

Bill Guerin is not that stupid to take on an injury-prone Bjugstad.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby thehockeyguru on Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:34 pm

Wyopen wrote:Bill Guerin is not that stupid to take on an injury-prone Bjugstad.


More than half the teams are going to be in salary dump mode this offseason. The Pens will have to add picks to get rid of Bjugstad.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby GSdrums87 on Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:49 pm

I'm not the biggest Murray supporter, but if all you can get for him is the rights to AA you should be jettisoned into the sun.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:58 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So I figured since we have some down time between now and when playoffs start I would ask the board what they feel our UFA/RFA's will be signed/what amoutn?

Here is my guess at who and how much:

Jarry: $3.5M for 3 years
McCann: $3M for 3 years
Simon: $1.5M for 2 years

Thoughts?

I do also think Poulin, POJ, and Desmith are on my roster next year as well. I also traded Murray for AA rights and Bjustad for Pateryn (D from Minnesota) :D

Jake - Sid - AA
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Poulin - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extra: Simon

Dumo - Letang
JJ - Marino
Pettersson - Pateryn (traded him for Bjustad)
extas: Ruhwedel and POJ

Jarry
DeSmith

I was a big AA fan, but, he has declined. Penguins don't need to take a chance on a guy who might be fast, but otherwise doesn't play great defensively and will want over 3M a year. Hard pass on a Murray for AA trade.

Salaries are going to be interesting because we all know the cap is going down, which, will likely mean signing UFAs and RFAs are going to be for lower than "normal" market value.

Simon in the 1.25-1.5M range is a good value, because he can play with Sid, or works on a 3rd line. Hasn't really done much with Malkin.
Jarry, I could see anywhere from 2M to 3.5M. I'd like to see him maybe in the middle, 2.75M range, but there have been some other goalies signed that might skew that higher.

McCann at 3M would be a solid number. He's probably worth a little more, but I think he's one that will be hit by salary cap reduction, and likely on a short 1 year deal, hoping the cap goes back up the following year.

Bjugstad and Murray are the 2 biggest names that I think are 100% gone. Penguins can't afford them and/or have cheaper options. Bjugstad, with his injury history, will likely cost a pick, mid-prospect, or something else to get rid of.

Penguins biggest weakness going into next season is their bottom pairing defensemen. JJ/Ruhwedel/Riikola in some combination doesn't instill confidence. I hope POJ is in the conversation, but that might be more of a mid-season thing. If the Penguins move Murray, I'd be looking for a 1st/2nd round pick and a solid 3rd pairing guy that is capable of moving up, a #4/#5 type of guy, preferable RD.....and preferably cheap or on ELC.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby thehockeyguru on Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:47 am

I think it will be common occurrence for players to take 1 or 2 year deals this offseason until the cap goes back up.

That should help the Pens to keep guys like Simon and Sheary on the cheap if they choose to.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Steve Dave on Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:54 am

Kevyn Adams (former player for JR) took over as GM for Buffalo. They are in need of a goalie. Any chance Murray gets dealt there?
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:27 am

So FLPens has brought up the idea before of trading Murray to Sabres for Risto as a D man.

That would fix the D situation and create this lineup on D:

Dumo - Letang
Risto - Marino
Petterson - JJ
POJ / Weeds

I think it'll be interesting on how the NHL approaches the offseason with regards to CBO / less buyout penalties and the salary cap itself.

It is an interesting approach to reward just 1 year deals due to the cap possibly lowering and than also the expansion draft in 2021. I think our team would greatly benefit from that approach. You could even resign Murray one year with Jarry for multiple and let Murray go in the expansion draft a la Fluery.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:33 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So I figured since we have some down time between now and when playoffs start I would ask the board what they feel our UFA/RFA's will be signed/what amoutn?

Here is my guess at who and how much:

Jarry: $3.5M for 3 years
McCann: $3M for 3 years
Simon: $1.5M for 2 years

Thoughts?

I do also think Poulin, POJ, and Desmith are on my roster next year as well. I also traded Murray for AA rights and Bjustad for Pateryn (D from Minnesota) :D

Jake - Sid - AA
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Poulin - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extra: Simon

Dumo - Letang
JJ - Marino
Pettersson - Pateryn (traded him for Bjustad)
extas: Ruhwedel and POJ

Jarry
DeSmith

I was a big AA fan, but, he has declined. Penguins don't need to take a chance on a guy who might be fast, but otherwise doesn't play great defensively and will want over 3M a year. Hard pass on a Murray for AA trade.

Salaries are going to be interesting because we all know the cap is going down, which, will likely mean signing UFAs and RFAs are going to be for lower than "normal" market value.






Simon in the 1.25-1.5M range is a good value, because he can play with Sid, or works on a 3rd line. Hasn't really done much with Malkin.
Jarry, I could see anywhere from 2M to 3.5M. I'd like to see him maybe in the middle, 2.75M range, but there have been some other goalies signed that might skew that higher.

McCann at 3M would be a solid number. He's probably worth a little more, but I think he's one that will be hit by salary cap reduction, and likely on a short 1 year deal, hoping the cap goes back up the following year.

Bjugstad and Murray are the 2 biggest names that I think are 100% gone. Penguins can't afford them and/or have cheaper options. Bjugstad, with his injury history, will likely cost a pick, mid-prospect, or something else to get rid of.

Penguins biggest weakness going into next season is their bottom pairing defensemen. JJ/Ruhwedel/Riikola in some combination doesn't instill confidence. I hope POJ is in the conversation, but that might be more of a mid-season thing. If the Penguins move Murray, I'd be looking for a 1st/2nd round pick and a solid 3rd pairing guy that is capable of moving up, a #4/#5 type of guy, preferable RD.....and preferably cheap or on ELC.



Yes, so my idea with MCann at $3M for 3 years is with the idea he will take over 3C from Bjustad. Now I have read some articles lately saying Teddy could be 3C next year but than who takes over 4C? Now if that is done with idea of strengthening the wings by keeping MCann out there and signing a cheap 4C than sure but otherwise I don't follow the thinking.

In regards to AA I was just trying to find someone that could strengthen the top line and knock Simon/Sheary donw to 3rd line. Finding teams that may take Murray in the offseason is a crap shoot as this point. I do think you can eliminate most teams in the east. I did mention possibly Buffalo for Risto in another post but I don't think GMJR wants him in the east. The only problem is I cannot think of a team out West that needs a goalie. Thought Yotes may work but now they have like three under contract. I know Sharks have been tossed around for Leblanc but idk if they have something we really need. This offseason will be very intriguing.

I would not be a bit surprised even if we saw Hornqvist get moved and replace with Poulin and we use that money to keep Murray. Just so many ways it could truly go. In an ideal situation we would had both goalies FA next year a la Fluery situation.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:36 am

I will also say I think this offseason will depend on how the team performs in this playoff format.

What if Murray stands on his head and we raise 3rd cup with him?
What if Schultz rebounds and plays phenomenal? (I know he has come out and said he really wants to stay here)
What if we get sweeped by Montreal? (That'd be back to back years of quick exits)

Lot of questions to be answered first.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby longtimefan on Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:25 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So I figured since we have some down time between now and when playoffs start I would ask the board what they feel our UFA/RFA's will be signed/what amoutn?

Here is my guess at who and how much:

Jarry: $3.5M for 3 years
McCann: $3M for 3 years
Simon: $1.5M for 2 years

Thoughts?

I do also think Poulin, POJ, and Desmith are on my roster next year as well. I also traded Murray for AA rights and Bjustad for Pateryn (D from Minnesota) :D

Jake - Sid - AA
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Poulin - McCann - Hornqvist
ZAR - Teddy - Tanev
Extra: Simon

Dumo - Letang
JJ - Marino
Pettersson - Pateryn (traded him for Bjustad)
extas: Ruhwedel and POJ

Jarry
DeSmith

I was a big AA fan, but, he has declined. Penguins don't need to take a chance on a guy who might be fast, but otherwise doesn't play great defensively and will want over 3M a year. Hard pass on a Murray for AA trade.

Salaries are going to be interesting because we all know the cap is going down, which, will likely mean signing UFAs and RFAs are going to be for lower than "normal" market value.

Simon in the 1.25-1.5M range is a good value, because he can play with Sid, or works on a 3rd line. Hasn't really done much with Malkin.
Jarry, I could see anywhere from 2M to 3.5M. I'd like to see him maybe in the middle, 2.75M range, but there have been some other goalies signed that might skew that higher.

McCann at 3M would be a solid number. He's probably worth a little more, but I think he's one that will be hit by salary cap reduction, and likely on a short 1 year deal, hoping the cap goes back up the following year.

Bjugstad and Murray are the 2 biggest names that I think are 100% gone. Penguins can't afford them and/or have cheaper options. Bjugstad, with his injury history, will likely cost a pick, mid-prospect, or something else to get rid of.

Penguins biggest weakness going into next season is their bottom pairing defensemen. JJ/Ruhwedel/Riikola in some combination doesn't instill confidence. I hope POJ is in the conversation, but that might be more of a mid-season thing. If the Penguins move Murray, I'd be looking for a 1st/2nd round pick and a solid 3rd pairing guy that is capable of moving up, a #4/#5 type of guy, preferable RD.....and preferably cheap or on ELC.


If they were interested in AA, they could have had him at the deadline. He only brought two 2nds, and Detroit had to throw in another prospect to get that. He also only had 1G and 2 Pts in his 9 games in Edmonton. He certainly doesn't have the value you want in return for Murray, and his contract would be high risk. I think the Pens can do much better in a Murray deal.

It will be a strange season in terms of contract values. I tend to believe they ultimately will choose to keep the cap flat to try and mitigate the chaos that's going to be caused with so many teams up against the cap before the shutdown. I also believe there's a strong chance they will allow at least one buy out. After the last lockout, they kept a flat cap and permitted up to two buyouts spread over two seasons. If a buyout is available, it solves any possible issues with Bjugstad. Although I don't see his contract as a huge sticking point. He had back surgery, which is serious. But it's also possible he'll check out medically, and someone will take a shot at him. The contract isn't prohibitive if a team believes he can bounce back. The Pens aren't going to have to pay through the nose to move him. Maybe a late round pick ala Gudbranson. If they don't like the terms, and there isn't a buyout provision, they have the option of simply buying him out conventionally for $1.75M for two seasons. They can definitely shed his contract IMO. If they have to sweeten it a little, it won't be too crazy. Otherwise, they'll just buy him out.

It's really hard to gauge Jarry's deal. And it may well be to be determined yet. If he ends up playing well in the playoffs, his value potentially goes up. The issue is there are comparables, even after he leveled out over the second half. Merzlikins signed for $4M for two years, and he might be the best comparable. The other issue is the term. He'll be 27 at the end of 2021-22, when he'll be eligible to be a UFA. It would cost a premium for him to forgo any UFA years. Even 2 years takes him to unrestricted status. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a one year deal for $3-$3.5M, with the critical negotiations to occur after next season. Which isn't a terrible situation for the Pens. It would give them a full year to evaluate him as a full time starter.

I think the most interesting situation is McCann. What exactly is he? One goal in his last 22 games has retarded his value. He looked like a $5M player easily at some points. But he hasn't proven to be consistent. Is a C or a W? IF he's a W, is he a top 6 W? He just turned 24, so I don't see a 3 year deal because it takes him to UFA status. It could be 2, but more likely just one so both sides can get a better feel of his value.

It would be great to bring Simon back for $1.25-$1.5M. But arbitration will still be in play with him as well as Jarry and McCann. Simon will be awarded more. So their ability to get him at that type of deal is largely in his hands. It would be nice value for the Pens, but Dom may make a business decision.

Personally, I don't believe Joseph will make the team out of camp. Certainly not as an extra. He's got to play. If not here, then at WBS. I know they are high on him, but everything I've read suggest the best case scenario is that he'll make his NHL debut sometime next season. But I'm not sure he's ready to play as a regular yet. I personally think Poulin has a chance to make the team, but he'll have to earn it in camp. I'm of the opinion that Marleau is playing for a job next season, and I think the Pens would jump on it if they can get him for $1M or less. He'll play somewhere, and if he proves to be a good fit through the playoffs, chasing a cup in Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense. And the Pens could slide Poulin's deal for another season. I definitely believe they'll give him every chance to force his way onto the roster. But he won't be handed a spot. And he shouldn't be.

I agree that RD is there most glaring need, but I don't think a gut like Pateryn fits, and certainly not as a partner for JJ. I'd love to address it in a Murray deal, but I think they need to be careful of pigeon holing the return. It's not often the Pens have a blue chip trade piece. So it's important they maximize the value regardless of position. I have no idea what his value may be, but they need to take advantage. I think Edmonton is a potential partner. Rather than a 1st, I wouldn't rule out Puljujarvi. My rational is he's as likely to make a mark as their 1st round pick. He obviously has talent, and he had a good season in Europe. In addition, I'm a fan of Ethan Bear. He seems to fit the Pens game. He's a RFA, but shouldn't cost a ton on his 2nd contract. He plays top 4 minutes, and the Oilers have been high on him for a while. He seems perfect for that bottom pairing. Puljujarvi and Bear for Murray. There are a lot of other potential deals, but that's one that has some intrigue to me.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:38 am

Steve Dave wrote:Kevyn Adams (former player for JR) took over as GM for Buffalo. They are in need of a goalie. Any chance Murray gets dealt there?

Buffalo is one of the 5 or 6 teams that I think will/should have definite interest in Murray due to their current goalie situation.

If I were to trade with Buffalo, I'd be asking either for young RD Henri Jokiharju, or LD Jake McCabe. Jokiharju, 21, has enough upside/potential that, I'm not sure what else would have to be included in the deal...maybe a 2nd or 3rd. If it were McCabe (26) coming back the other way, I'd probably still be asking for a 1st or another solid prospect for Murray as well.

Jokiharju has this current season and next year on his ELC before becoming an RFA.
McCabe has this current season and next season at 2.85M before becoming a UFA.

Getting McCabe, in my opinion, would need to spell the end of Jack Johnson, because McCabe should be playing over JJ, is 1M cheaper, and Johnson, in a restricted cap, is too expensive to be sitting on the bench as the 7th.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:41 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So FLPens has brought up the idea before of trading Murray to Sabres for Risto as a D man.

That would fix the D situation and create this lineup on D:

Dumo - Letang
Risto - Marino
Petterson - JJ
POJ / Weeds

I think it'll be interesting on how the NHL approaches the offseason with regards to CBO / less buyout penalties and the salary cap itself.

It is an interesting approach to reward just 1 year deals due to the cap possibly lowering and than also the expansion draft in 2021. I think our team would greatly benefit from that approach. You could even resign Murray one year with Jarry for multiple and let Murray go in the expansion draft a la Fluery.

Risto is a RD, and I'm not sure how well he can play his off-side. For all his struggles in Buffalo, I wouldn't acquire him to try moving him to LD. There is also the cap issue again. I wouldn't look to acquire a 5.4M defenseman in this cap situation. I'd probably resign Schultz for 3M to play on the 3rd pairing before wanting Risto at this point.

Cost is going to come into almost any trade, with the idea to get cheaper assets in return.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:04 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:I will also say I think this offseason will depend on how the team performs in this playoff format.

What if Murray stands on his head and we raise 3rd cup with him?
What if Schultz rebounds and plays phenomenal? (I know he has come out and said he really wants to stay here)
What if we get sweeped by Montreal? (That'd be back to back years of quick exits)

Lot of questions to be answered first.

Murray could go 24-0, with 24 shutouts in the off-season, and the 3/4 core problems would still exist:

--Murray (by all accounts) wants too much money (likely ASKING for 7-8M at least, from rumors I have heard)
--To keep Murray, even at 6-7M, will require trading away other valuable players, like a Hornqvist
--Expansion draft next summer...unless you pay off Seattle to not take a Penguins goalie, you are going to lose Jarry or Murray to Seattle. Both are good enough as well as young enough to be some of the top goalies available.
--If somehow you pay off Seattle, you then have 2 goalies that deserve to be starters a la Fleury and Murray....plus a 3rd goalie who deserves to be an NHL backup not buried in the AHL.

Just for the heck of it, I took a look at next season with a 78M cap, and traded away Bjugstad and Johnson for a 5th round pick to clear up space.
--If Murray was resigned for 6.5M, Penguins would have 9.6M to use on 2F, 1D, and 1G to have a minimum 20 man roster.
--Add McCann for 1 year at 3M, and Simon for 1 year at 1.25M, and leaves 5.39M to sign 1 LD and 1G.
--You either sign Jarry for 1 year, 2.5M, or bring up DeSmith for 1.25M and trade Jarry. For argument's sake, let's go the cheaper route and trade Jarry.
--That leaves 4.34M to sign a 6th defenseman, and have room for callup players. Let's just say 1.8M for 13th FWD and 7th D combined....that would leave 2.54M to sign that 6th D-Man. Not impossible, but not easy....I don't think there are a lot of quality 3rd pairing LD available on the UFA market.

Maybe you flip Jarry to Buffalo for McCabe, and then have POJ waiting in the wings. And that still likely leaves Ruhwedel as an everyday top 6 defenseman. :cry:
But, this plan above is also using an optimistic 78M cap, and an optimistic 6.5M signing for Murray.

So, yeah, maybe it can be done. But, I'm not sure it's the best option to take.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby Jim on Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:34 am

longtimefan wrote:If they were interested in AA, they could have had him at the deadline. He only brought two 2nds, and Detroit had to throw in another prospect to get that. He also only had 1G and 2 Pts in his 9 games in Edmonton.


Actually, he had 1g 2pts +2 in his first game as an Oiler, then over the next 8 games he was 0-0-0 -3. I know that because I had been having opposing opinion discussions with a couple of Detroit fans over Athanasiou's sucktitute level. When they got two 2nds for him they took a shot at me and then when he was 1-1-2 +2 in his first game they were all kinds of homer fanboying. I said lets give him more than 1 game. Then after the shutdown I tried to gt them to reengage about his 8 game 0-0-0 -3 streak and they would not even respond.

I just want to remind people eyeing Athanasiou... in order to find a worse +/- than his -46 (55 games), which did increase by -1 after getting out of Detroit, you have to go back to 1993-1994.
Rico Fata matched that -46 in 2003-2004, 73 games in Pittsburgh.
However, to get worse than -46 you need to look at the Ottawa Senators of 1993-1994, when their record was 14-61-9. Dineen -52, Rumble -50, Yashin -49. They had 8 guys -40 or worse, another 2 -30 or worse, another 6 -20 or worse. Troy Murray was their only + player at +1 playing 15 games.

I don't care if you don't value +/- much, and I agree that there isn't much difference between +5 and -5... but the worst +/- in 25 years is a bold statement.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby GSdrums87 on Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:14 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So FLPens has brought up the idea before of trading Murray to Sabres for Risto as a D man.

That would fix the D situation and create this lineup on D:

Dumo - Letang
Risto - Marino
Petterson - JJ
POJ / Weeds

I think it'll be interesting on how the NHL approaches the offseason with regards to CBO / less buyout penalties and the salary cap itself.

It is an interesting approach to reward just 1 year deals due to the cap possibly lowering and than also the expansion draft in 2021. I think our team would greatly benefit from that approach. You could even resign Murray one year with Jarry for multiple and let Murray go in the expansion draft a la Fluery.

Risto is a RD, and I'm not sure how well he can play his off-side. For all his struggles in Buffalo, I wouldn't acquire him to try moving him to LD. There is also the cap issue again. I wouldn't look to acquire a 5.4M defenseman in this cap situation. I'd probably resign Schultz for 3M to play on the 3rd pairing before wanting Risto at this point.

Cost is going to come into almost any trade, with the idea to get cheaper assets in return.

Stop being realistic. Dream big. The time is now for you to finally get Sam Reinhart on this team.
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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:08 pm

GSdrums87 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Pensfan4life8771 wrote:So FLPens has brought up the idea before of trading Murray to Sabres for Risto as a D man.

That would fix the D situation and create this lineup on D:

Dumo - Letang
Risto - Marino
Petterson - JJ
POJ / Weeds

I think it'll be interesting on how the NHL approaches the offseason with regards to CBO / less buyout penalties and the salary cap itself.

It is an interesting approach to reward just 1 year deals due to the cap possibly lowering and than also the expansion draft in 2021. I think our team would greatly benefit from that approach. You could even resign Murray one year with Jarry for multiple and let Murray go in the expansion draft a la Fluery.

Risto is a RD, and I'm not sure how well he can play his off-side. For all his struggles in Buffalo, I wouldn't acquire him to try moving him to LD. There is also the cap issue again. I wouldn't look to acquire a 5.4M defenseman in this cap situation. I'd probably resign Schultz for 3M to play on the 3rd pairing before wanting Risto at this point.

Cost is going to come into almost any trade, with the idea to get cheaper assets in return.

Stop being realistic. Dream big. The time is now for you to finally get Sam Reinhart on this team.

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Re: Contract Extensions - What values?

Postby thehockeyguru on Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:23 pm

I'd look to Buffalo for a blockbuster deal.

Murray, Hornqvist and Bjugstad for Ristolainen, Hutton, Reinhart, and a 2nd.
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