Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Ericf on Tue May 05, 2020 2:15 pm

The NHL apparently is advanced money by NBC for the playoffs in any given season...so NBC has paid for the playoffs this year already, which is their main moneymaker in their NHL contract....if the NHL doesn’t play playoff games in particular, they will have to pay back the networks next year, leading to further revenue losses...that’s why they’re so gung ho to play the remaining season....
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby 100565 on Tue May 05, 2020 2:21 pm

FLPensFan wrote:To the original purpose of this post

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
x-Rodrigues, Lafferty, Angello

Dumo-Letang
Petey-Marino
Johnson-X
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

I think Bjugstad will be traded. I think Marleau will retire. I think Sheary will walk. I think Riikola will be traded, refuse to resign, or return to Finland. I really don't know on Murray. I think they can't afford him. If he agrees to a 1 year deal at lower terms, like 5M, I still think that causes them to lose Murray or Jarry for nothing in the expansion draft and, it would be different if these goalies were 29-31 range, but they are both around 25...you can't let good, young assets walk away or lose them for nothing in return. That's horrible asset management.

Biggest needs for next season are an upgraded 3rd pairing, with strong need for everyday 3RD, and an upgrade at 1RW. Simon and his "tremendous skills" is not a long-term 1st line option. He's not always Mr. Corsi excellent passer guy. They need someone a bit more consistent on that line.


I like this. Always gotta leave space for rookie. OP roster is similar, but I do not want Sheary back. I will say, though I disagree, I think both Jarry and Murray are part of the opening day roster for next year.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Daniel on Tue May 05, 2020 2:37 pm

Ericf wrote:The NHL apparently is advanced money by NBC for the playoffs in any given season...so NBC has paid for the playoffs this year already, which is their main moneymaker in their NHL contract....if the NHL doesn’t play playoff games in particular, they will have to pay back the networks next year, leading to further revenue losses...that’s why they’re so gung ho to play the remaining season....


State to state travel is iffy. Country to country travel is a no go. How much does it cost to ice an arena, which will be a 100% cost without any incoming money. They were paid $200 million dollars in tv money for the whole season.

Since I don't know how much it costs to ice an arena plus player salaries. Let's say they have to pay back $100 million that's what $3 million per team give or take? I think they'd live with that loss over the cost of playing the games with no additional revenue.

I hope I'm wrong, but these are businessmen not fans.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Cow_Master66 on Tue May 05, 2020 2:47 pm

I'd say it costs a few hundred K to ice an NHL rink for a month, depending on the location and other variables....Just a guess though.

We all know the NHL is run by buffoons, but they do have an opportunity to generate some interest in the sport if they can find some creative ways to finish the season, determine seeds, draft order, etc...

It would be cool to see some sort of tourney to determine draft positions. I'm down with the 32 team March Madness style approach to the playoffs as well....Brackets....Lose and go home. I wouldn't award the Stanley Cup to the winner, I'd come up w/ another prize.

I've said before, I don't want to see any type of condensed version of the playoffs, and really don't want to see the Cup playoffs without fans, so I'd rather "gimmick" it up a bit and do something like the 32 team tourney or something like that. Maybe they can come up w/ something creative ~ along the lines of the NBA in-season tourney that's being discussed ~ and scrap the all-star game once and for all going forward?
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Jim on Tue May 05, 2020 4:14 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:How about this trade scenario with Murray going to Leafs for Kapi and prospect Goalie:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1724500


I'd be for it. But with Rutherford's recent trade history he would probably move Murray for a 7th and a 32 year old AHLer
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Tue May 05, 2020 6:00 pm

100565 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:To the original purpose of this post

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
x-Rodrigues, Lafferty, Angello

Dumo-Letang
Petey-Marino
Johnson-X
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

I think Bjugstad will be traded. I think Marleau will retire. I think Sheary will walk. I think Riikola will be traded, refuse to resign, or return to Finland. I really don't know on Murray. I think they can't afford him. If he agrees to a 1 year deal at lower terms, like 5M, I still think that causes them to lose Murray or Jarry for nothing in the expansion draft and, it would be different if these goalies were 29-31 range, but they are both around 25...you can't let good, young assets walk away or lose them for nothing in return. That's horrible asset management.

Biggest needs for next season are an upgraded 3rd pairing, with strong need for everyday 3RD, and an upgrade at 1RW. Simon and his "tremendous skills" is not a long-term 1st line option. He's not always Mr. Corsi excellent passer guy. They need someone a bit more consistent on that line.


I like this. Always gotta leave space for rookie. OP roster is similar, but I do not want Sheary back. I will say, though I disagree, I think both Jarry and Murray are part of the opening day roster for next year.

Jim Rutherford disagrees with keeping both Murray and Jarry. Yohe talked to him today. Of course, he didn't come right out and say that, but...


--Yohe, through Rutherford conversation, points out two certainties of the cap next year:
---->It will not be as high as previously predicted (83-85M range)
---->The cap will not be as high as the current 81.5M cap. So, the cap is going to drop.
--->Rutherford stated to Yohe those are about the only 2 cap certainties they know right now...it won't go up, and is definitely going down.

Rutherford basically said in the article that, if the Penguins were to keep both goalies, then they would have to move around several pieces on their team. He said it is possible, but, he didn't seem to keen on being able to keep both goalies.

Yohe also said that without prompting from Yohe, when discussing this, Rutherford on his own went into the 2017 situation of having to let Fleury go, and said those same situations, the salary cap and the expansion draft, are here again for 2021. Rutherford said he would have loved to keep both of them, but MAF cap number was just too hard to work with, without a major disruption to the rest of the team. Rutherford flat out said it is an obvious answer that they "want" to keep both of them, however, he said the cap system doesn't always let you do things that way.

Rutherford said while this is a Sullivan question, he did believe Murray was going to be the playoff starter.

https://theathletic.com/1795631/2020/05/05/jim-rutherford-says-trading-one-of-his-goaltenders-might-be-inevitable/
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby 100565 on Tue May 05, 2020 8:36 pm

I had not seen that article...good to know! I think the virus changed their course, but who knows.

I would shop both, and let trade market decide.

Crappy offseason for free agents. If cap does go down, many teams will have tough decisions. I cannot imagine Murray would get longer term deal for $5.5mil+. There will be many creative contracts - many one year deals. It would not shock me if both Jarry and Murray (maybe not with Pens) sign one year deals. Also, McCann, Simon, etc.... If the league decides one buyouts, those players bought out will probably get one year deals as well.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Tue May 05, 2020 9:24 pm

100565 wrote:I had not seen that article...good to know! I think the virus changed their course, but who knows.

I would shop both, and let trade market decide.

Crappy offseason for free agents. If cap does go down, many teams will have tough decisions. I cannot imagine Murray would get longer term deal for $5.5mil+. There will be many creative contracts - many one year deals. It would not shock me if both Jarry and Murray (maybe not with Pens) sign one year deals. Also, McCann, Simon, etc.... If the league decides one buyouts, those players bought out will probably get one year deals as well.

In regards to Murray...Murray would get you the bigger return. Both goalies are about the same age. One has two Cups. The other has potential. The reason Murray goes and Jarry stays is Murray costs too much to keep.

In regards to contracts for McCann, Simon, etc...that is tough, because the cap implications may be felt for more than 1 year. If I get a chance, I'm going to take a look at flat cap (which we know isn't happening), 80M cap, 77M cap, and 75M cap....and see how each of those impact the team structure.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby pens_CT on Wed May 06, 2020 8:42 am

Dave Molinari had a interesting proposal in his article today on DK's site to alleviate the effect of a lower cap number next year. His proposal would deal with players who are on existing contracts, and would allow ten percent of their cap hit not to count against the limit. A player like Crosby who has a 8.7 million cap number would count 870K less next season. The players would still receive their full salary, which in many cases isn't equal to their cap number. The Penguins have like 68.3 million in existing salaries so they would get 6.83 million in cap relief. He also wouldn't make the cap relief mandatory, so if you're a team struggling to get to the cap floor, you wouldn't be compelled to reduce your current cap hit on existing contracts.

It's a interesting (maybe not novel) concept, and gets away from the potential compliance buyouts that have been talked about in order to manage a falling cap limit number.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby longtimefan on Wed May 06, 2020 8:53 am

FLPensFan wrote:To the original purpose of this post

Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
x-Rodrigues, Lafferty, Angello

Dumo-Letang
Petey-Marino
Johnson-X
xRuhwedel

Jarry
DeSmith

I think Bjugstad will be traded. I think Marleau will retire. I think Sheary will walk. I think Riikola will be traded, refuse to resign, or return to Finland. I really don't know on Murray. I think they can't afford him. If he agrees to a 1 year deal at lower terms, like 5M, I still think that causes them to lose Murray or Jarry for nothing in the expansion draft and, it would be different if these goalies were 29-31 range, but they are both around 25...you can't let good, young assets walk away or lose them for nothing in return. That's horrible asset management.

Biggest needs for next season are an upgraded 3rd pairing, with strong need for everyday 3RD, and an upgrade at 1RW. Simon and his "tremendous skills" is not a long-term 1st line option. He's not always Mr. Corsi excellent passer guy. They need someone a bit more consistent on that line.


So much will depend on if they complete the season, and how guys perform through the remaining games. Plus, how will they handle the cap. Every team in the league is going to be in the same boat, so a guy like Sheary may not find much luck in the UFA market, and Murray may not get the big long term contract he'd like. A few obserations:

Bjugstad will be traded. His cap hit just won't fit, no matter how he performs.
Marleau WILL NOT retire. He may not come back to the Pens, although I think there's a good chance he will. He needs to play 43 games to tie Gordie Howe for the most played in NHL history. The fact he returned for $750K this season tells me it's not about the money. He'll play. It just depends on if the Pens feel he'd be a fit. He'll come cheap, ala Cullen.
Sheary won't find the UFA market that attractive. Not with a stunted cap. He'll likely have to take a pay cut. As good as Simon's advanced stats are, I think they prefer Sheary with Crosby. He'd have to come at a discount, or he'll likely be traded. Another factor will be Rodrigues. If they believe he has more upside than Simon, it would make trading Dom more likely.
Murray is almost certainly going to be gone. He won't get the big contract anywhere, and will likely have to settle for a shorter deal with less of a cap hit. But it won't be with the Pens. There's no way they risk losing one of him or Jarry in the expansion draft.
McCann is likely to have to take a bridge deal for a year or two. The flat cap won't allow for the raise he would have received. The same is likely true for Jarry.
A flat cap leads me to believe the league may allow a compliance buyout. Which puts JJ in peril, although his cap hit isn't really that terrible. Hornqvist could be another candidate, although I doubt they move on from him. He had a pretty decent season, and they really value his warrior mentality.
I do think a Murray for Risto deal is intriguing, but it would be straight up, without any salary retained. Buffalo's cap situation is terrible, and I don't think Murray's value exceeds Risto's. Goalies are always tougher to move, and RHD are highly valued.

Time will tell, but those are my gut feelings.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Wed May 06, 2020 9:30 am

FLPens, regarding Murray for Risto, thoughts on this:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1725624
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Daniel on Wed May 06, 2020 9:50 am

pens_CT wrote:Dave Molinari had a interesting proposal in his article today on DK's site to alleviate the effect of a lower cap number next year. His proposal would deal with players who are on existing contracts, and would allow ten percent of their cap hit not to count against the limit. A player like Crosby who has a 8.7 million cap number would count 870K less next season. The players would still receive their full salary, which in many cases isn't equal to their cap number. The Penguins have like 68.3 million in existing salaries so they would get 6.83 million in cap relief. He also wouldn't make the cap relief mandatory, so if you're a team struggling to get to the cap floor, you wouldn't be compelled to reduce your current cap hit on existing contracts.

It's a interesting (maybe not novel) concept, and gets away from the potential compliance buyouts that have been talked about in order to manage a falling cap limit number.


If they're going to give 10% relief but pay 100% of the salaries, why not just add 10% to the cap?
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby pens_CT on Wed May 06, 2020 10:11 am

Daniel wrote:
pens_CT wrote:Dave Molinari had a interesting proposal in his article today on DK's site to alleviate the effect of a lower cap number next year. His proposal would deal with players who are on existing contracts, and would allow ten percent of their cap hit not to count against the limit. A player like Crosby who has a 8.7 million cap number would count 870K less next season. The players would still receive their full salary, which in many cases isn't equal to their cap number. The Penguins have like 68.3 million in existing salaries so they would get 6.83 million in cap relief. He also wouldn't make the cap relief mandatory, so if you're a team struggling to get to the cap floor, you wouldn't be compelled to reduce your current cap hit on existing contracts.

It's a interesting (maybe not novel) concept, and gets away from the potential compliance buyouts that have been talked about in order to manage a falling cap limit number.


If they're going to give 10% relief but pay 100% of the salaries, why not just add 10% to the cap?


So if you add 10% to the cap this year, and let's say hockey revenues are down next year because the start of the season didn't have fans in the stands, or for whatever reason, do you do raise the cap another 10% the following year? I think its easier for them to give cap relief to the teams, than to raise the cap number which is a negotiated number in the CBA based on a percentage of hockey revenues.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Wed May 06, 2020 10:16 am

Daniel wrote:
pens_CT wrote:Dave Molinari had a interesting proposal in his article today on DK's site to alleviate the effect of a lower cap number next year. His proposal would deal with players who are on existing contracts, and would allow ten percent of their cap hit not to count against the limit. A player like Crosby who has a 8.7 million cap number would count 870K less next season. The players would still receive their full salary, which in many cases isn't equal to their cap number. The Penguins have like 68.3 million in existing salaries so they would get 6.83 million in cap relief. He also wouldn't make the cap relief mandatory, so if you're a team struggling to get to the cap floor, you wouldn't be compelled to reduce your current cap hit on existing contracts.

It's a interesting (maybe not novel) concept, and gets away from the potential compliance buyouts that have been talked about in order to manage a falling cap limit number.


If they're going to give 10% relief but pay 100% of the salaries, why not just add 10% to the cap?

I think my idea is a lot less complex than what Molinari proposes....my idea was to allow each team 1 contract (with a cap hit limit, say 6M or less) that the team still pays but does not count against the cap. Much easier to account for that on a daily basis than trying to manage 10% reductions in cap across 23 players, plus all the other AHL players that come through on callups for a day or a week. That would be an accounting nightmare IMO.

Say the cap gets rolled back to 78M, but, the Penguins are allowed to tag Guentzel as their no cap hit player....that essentially gives them an 84M cap hit (78M plus Guentzel's 6M in relief).
Limit the AAV to 6M, and it is on a year by year basis....if they still need to do this type of allowance the following year.
The no cap hit is a team designation, and does not follow the player...ie, teams can't trade for a bunch of "no cap hit players"
One other item could be allowing no more than 2 no cap hit players, and their sum cannot be more than 6M. Maybe there are teams that would need to tag 2M player and a 4M player to maximize that space...Ottawa for example has Bobby Ryan at 7.25M, and then next highest player is 4.75M....so they would be losing out on some space by not having a higher paid player to tag.
Teams don't have to use that space if they don't want to. If they are fine with a 78M cap, they don't have to tag anyone.

If every team tagged up to 6M in no cap hit money, that would be 186M paid in salary that doesn't count against the cap.

The other option being floated is compliance buyouts. I'd much rather spend that money on a no cap player who can have an impact on my team, than just paying money for double the amount of time for a player to just go away, do nothing for me, and get free money.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Wed May 06, 2020 10:39 am

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:FLPens, regarding Murray for Risto, thoughts on this:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1725624

I'd want a little more for Murray. A 2nd/3rd round pick, or a B-level prospect......
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Jim on Wed May 06, 2020 10:56 am

But the point of the cap isn't the actual cap, it's to keep average salaries within reach of the lesser teams. Teams got less revenue, less profit, and therefore it is paying the salaries that is the issue, not being within the comparably irrelevant cap number.

If I only have $20 but something costs $25, even if you "say" $20, but want $25 from me... I still can't afford it.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Wed May 06, 2020 11:37 am

Jim wrote:But the point of the cap isn't the actual cap, it's to keep average salaries within reach of the lesser teams. Teams got less revenue, less profit, and therefore it is paying the salaries that is the issue, not being within the comparably irrelevant cap number.

If I only have $20 but something costs $25, even if you "say" $20, but want $25 from me... I still can't afford it.

Yeah, and someone else pointed out something that, if you are going to give a 6M cap relief....why not just raise the cap 6M if you are going to do that....so...nevermind, move along.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Wed May 06, 2020 11:46 am

Riding on Yohe's coattails from yesterday, Kingerski has his "details" of what has been going on with the Penguins goalie situation, all the way back to September of last year:

--Kingerski claims the Penguins were set to make a deal in September to move one of their goalies. Even though DeSmith was sent to AHL, they told him to stay close because they expected to finalize a deal. Something happened and the deal fell through.

--Kingerski says this all ties back to Colorado, who Rutherford had trade talks with about a goalie at the deadline. Kingerski claims one source says Sakic loves Jarry, but a more senior, reliable source says Murray is and has been the target. Says Avs have been watching Penguins goalie situation since September.

--Kingerski also says that when Murray stumbled early on, the team because frustrated with Murray. He needed to make adjustments to his game/positioning, but word is he was stubborn or dismissive of that advice. (I have heard rumors of Penguins frustrations with Murray last season from multiple sources).

--He finishes by talking about how trades often culminate like this....lay groundwork on deadline day, finish the deal at the draft. He also talks about how a June draft would kill any possible hopes of a Murray to Colorado deal, and also points out that signing Francouz to a 2 year deal worth 2M could have changed the landscape, but Colorado is still a team to watch in regards to Murray.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Daniel on Wed May 06, 2020 12:44 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
pens_CT wrote:Dave Molinari had a interesting proposal in his article today on DK's site to alleviate the effect of a lower cap number next year. His proposal would deal with players who are on existing contracts, and would allow ten percent of their cap hit not to count against the limit. A player like Crosby who has a 8.7 million cap number would count 870K less next season. The players would still receive their full salary, which in many cases isn't equal to their cap number. The Penguins have like 68.3 million in existing salaries so they would get 6.83 million in cap relief. He also wouldn't make the cap relief mandatory, so if you're a team struggling to get to the cap floor, you wouldn't be compelled to reduce your current cap hit on existing contracts.

It's a interesting (maybe not novel) concept, and gets away from the potential compliance buyouts that have been talked about in order to manage a falling cap limit number.


If they're going to give 10% relief but pay 100% of the salaries, why not just add 10% to the cap?

I think my idea is a lot less complex than what Molinari proposes....my idea was to allow each team 1 contract (with a cap hit limit, say 6M or less) that the team still pays but does not count against the cap. Much easier to account for that on a daily basis than trying to manage 10% reductions in cap across 23 players, plus all the other AHL players that come through on callups for a day or a week. That would be an accounting nightmare IMO.

Say the cap gets rolled back to 78M, but, the Penguins are allowed to tag Guentzel as their no cap hit player....that essentially gives them an 84M cap hit (78M plus Guentzel's 6M in relief).
Limit the AAV to 6M, and it is on a year by year basis....if they still need to do this type of allowance the following year.
The no cap hit is a team designation, and does not follow the player...ie, teams can't trade for a bunch of "no cap hit players"
One other item could be allowing no more than 2 no cap hit players, and their sum cannot be more than 6M. Maybe there are teams that would need to tag 2M player and a 4M player to maximize that space...Ottawa for example has Bobby Ryan at 7.25M, and then next highest player is 4.75M....so they would be losing out on some space by not having a higher paid player to tag.
Teams don't have to use that space if they don't want to. If they are fine with a 78M cap, they don't have to tag anyone.

If every team tagged up to 6M in no cap hit money, that would be 186M paid in salary that doesn't count against the cap.

The other option being floated is compliance buyouts. I'd much rather spend that money on a no cap player who can have an impact on my team, than just paying money for double the amount of time for a player to just go away, do nothing for me, and get free money.


I think that's going to depend on the real numbers when this is all said and done. They could also have a very low cap and only count players not drafted by the team and UDFAs who never played for another team. I think the NBA does that (or used to do that). Do that soft cap until this get sorted out.

There are so many variables that it's hard to have a factual discussion. First point is when will any sports come back and when will fans be allowed into the stadiums/arenas.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby pens_CT on Wed May 06, 2020 12:53 pm

FLPensFan wrote:Riding on Yohe's coattails from yesterday, Kingerski has his "details" of what has been going on with the Penguins goalie situation, all the way back to September of last year:

--Kingerski claims the Penguins were set to make a deal in September to move one of their goalies. Even though DeSmith was sent to AHL, they told him to stay close because they expected to finalize a deal. Something happened and the deal fell through.

--Kingerski says this all ties back to Colorado, who Rutherford had trade talks with about a goalie at the deadline. Kingerski claims one source says Sakic loves Jarry, but a more senior, reliable source says Murray is and has been the target. Says Avs have been watching Penguins goalie situation since September.

--Kingerski also says that when Murray stumbled early on, the team because frustrated with Murray. He needed to make adjustments to his game/positioning, but word is he was stubborn or dismissive of that advice. (I have heard rumors of Penguins frustrations with Murray last season from multiple sources).

--He finishes by talking about how trades often culminate like this....lay groundwork on deadline day, finish the deal at the draft. He also talks about how a June draft would kill any possible hopes of a Murray to Colorado deal, and also points out that signing Francouz to a 2 year deal worth 2M could have changed the landscape, but Colorado is still a team to watch in regards to Murray.


I don't see a match with Colorado. The players/prospects you would want in return probably aren't available for either Murray or Jarry.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby 100565 on Wed May 06, 2020 1:07 pm

FLPensFan wrote:...
--Kingerski claims the Penguins were set to make a deal in September to move one of their goalies. Even though DeSmith was sent to AHL, they told him to stay close because they expected to finalize a deal. Something happened and the deal fell through.
...


I think most expected some type of goalie trade at the beginning of the season. If Kingerski's claims are true, it had to be Jarry. At that time, Jarry was unproven and worth much less (not that he is worth too much now). Maybe Jarry for equivalent of 3rd or 4th round pick? For GMJR to trade Murray at the beginning of the season(2019-2020) would have been ballsy; he would have been relying on scouts alone. DeSmith and Jarry on the 19-20 opening day roster? Doubtful. Maybe Murray with a goalie coming back, but then why tell DeSmith to stay close. Therefore, I am glad the deal did not happen...the Pens could get more for Jarry now. On the flip side, I think Murray's trade value has gone down over the course of the season.

In a vacuum, I would say Murray is worth more in trade than Jarry. However, once contracts are considered, I think their values are pretty close. I would be hesitant to give Murray a long term deal (4-6 years); it is a risky contract. Teams trading for him either have to sign him to a longer term deal and take on that risk or sign him to short contract. Longer contract has relatively high risk. Shorter deal makes sense, but what would a team be willing to trade to the Pens for a goalie that they only have signed for 1-2 years...Murray would be UFA and could sign anywhere. I think both their trade values are close. In terms of draft picks, I think mid-1st to high 2nd round pick.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Daniel on Wed May 06, 2020 2:28 pm

100565 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:...
--Kingerski claims the Penguins were set to make a deal in September to move one of their goalies. Even though DeSmith was sent to AHL, they told him to stay close because they expected to finalize a deal. Something happened and the deal fell through.
...


I think most expected some type of goalie trade at the beginning of the season. If Kingerski's claims are true, it had to be Jarry. At that time, Jarry was unproven and worth much less (not that he is worth too much now). Maybe Jarry for equivalent of 3rd or 4th round pick? For GMJR to trade Murray at the beginning of the season(2019-2020) would have been ballsy; he would have been relying on scouts alone. DeSmith and Jarry on the 19-20 opening day roster? Doubtful. Maybe Murray with a goalie coming back, but then why tell DeSmith to stay close. Therefore, I am glad the deal did not happen...the Pens could get more for Jarry now. On the flip side, I think Murray's trade value has gone down over the course of the season.

In a vacuum, I would say Murray is worth more in trade than Jarry. However, once contracts are considered, I think their values are pretty close. I would be hesitant to give Murray a long term deal (4-6 years); it is a risky contract. Teams trading for him either have to sign him to a longer term deal and take on that risk or sign him to short contract. Longer contract has relatively high risk. Shorter deal makes sense, but what would a team be willing to trade to the Pens for a goalie that they only have signed for 1-2 years...Murray would be UFA and could sign anywhere. I think both their trade values are close. In terms of draft picks, I think mid-1st to high 2nd round pick.


I think it depends on the team to be honest with you. Why would a team like Detroit want to have a guy like Murray over Jarry? Sure they're the same age, but Murray is going to be 2-3 times more expensive. On the flip side, why would Edmonton want Jarry over Murray?

If more teams like Edmonton bid, I think Murray gets traded. If more teams like Detroit bid, I think Jarry gets traded. I think all things being equal in terms of return, Murray gets traded just because of cap hit.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby 100565 on Wed May 06, 2020 2:44 pm

Daniel wrote:...
I think it depends on the team to be honest with you. Why would a team like Detroit want to have a guy like Murray over Jarry? Sure they're the same age, but Murray is going to be 2-3 times more expensive. On the flip side, why would Edmonton want Jarry over Murray?

If more teams like Edmonton bid, I think Murray gets traded. If more teams like Detroit bid, I think Jarry gets traded. I think all things being equal in terms of return, Murray gets traded just because of cap hit.


I agree; let their trade values determine the outcome.

I will add, I do not place much value on goalies in the NHL; many seem to be good. Many can get hot and take a team to the Cup. None are consistently awesome year to year. I like a two goalie system because it increases the odds of one of them getting hot for playoffs.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby Daniel on Wed May 06, 2020 3:45 pm

100565 wrote:
Daniel wrote:...
I think it depends on the team to be honest with you. Why would a team like Detroit want to have a guy like Murray over Jarry? Sure they're the same age, but Murray is going to be 2-3 times more expensive. On the flip side, why would Edmonton want Jarry over Murray?

If more teams like Edmonton bid, I think Murray gets traded. If more teams like Detroit bid, I think Jarry gets traded. I think all things being equal in terms of return, Murray gets traded just because of cap hit.


I agree; let their trade values determine the outcome.

I will add, I do not place much value on goalies in the NHL; many seem to be good. Many can get hot and take a team to the Cup. None are consistently awesome year to year. I like a two goalie system because it increases the odds of one of them getting hot for playoffs.


I'd like to see Murray and Jarry battle it out for the next few years, if they can stay under the cap. If not for the expansion draft, I think we're having a discussion about which gets 60% and which gets 40% and who starts in the playoffs.
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Re: Pens 2020 - 2021 Season Roster

Postby FLPensFan on Wed May 06, 2020 7:30 pm

Daniel wrote:
100565 wrote:
Daniel wrote:...
I think it depends on the team to be honest with you. Why would a team like Detroit want to have a guy like Murray over Jarry? Sure they're the same age, but Murray is going to be 2-3 times more expensive. On the flip side, why would Edmonton want Jarry over Murray?

If more teams like Edmonton bid, I think Murray gets traded. If more teams like Detroit bid, I think Jarry gets traded. I think all things being equal in terms of return, Murray gets traded just because of cap hit.


I agree; let their trade values determine the outcome.

I will add, I do not place much value on goalies in the NHL; many seem to be good. Many can get hot and take a team to the Cup. None are consistently awesome year to year. I like a two goalie system because it increases the odds of one of them getting hot for playoffs.


I'd like to see Murray and Jarry battle it out for the next few years, if they can stay under the cap. If not for the expansion draft, I think we're having a discussion about which gets 60% and which gets 40% and who starts in the playoffs.

There's no way to keep them both beyond the 20-21 season, unless you are going to pay off Seattle not to take them...and, I'd expect the price to be a 1st or 2nd rounder to avoid taking a mid-20's goalie with two Cups or a mid-20's goalie with upside.

Even this season, Murray's salary was going to be a problem without the new cap issues. In a vacuum, if both goalies would take 2M and I could only sign 1, it would likely be Murray. But, that won't happen, and there are a ton of other factors at play.

---Possible internal concerns on Murray's work ethic/habits/attitude
---Murray cost more to keep
---Murray has won 2 Cups
---Murray has not returned to that 2 Cup form
---Jarry is still relatively inexperienced
---Jarry is much cheaper to re-sign
---Murray "should" fetch much better return via trade.
---Rutherford refused to negotiate with Murray during the season

I just don't think I see much chance of Matt Murray putting on the Penguins crest for the 2020-2021 season.
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