interstorm wrote:I think a hidden benefit of this would be a fair amount of roster consistency which hopefully allows players to really gel with one another and perform better than the sum of the parts. Thinking of our famed KLS line from years ago -- while Kovalev was a unique talent, their performance was greatly aided because they played together for a long time. Not saying the same exact thing will happen here and I would certainly want young players to push for ice time (and injuries will happen)...but consistency and familiarity helps.
pens_CT wrote:You did a great job of looking ahead and putting together a reasonable roster plan going forward. Some thoughts
(1) Yep that third defensive pairing does look scary.
(2) Lack of organizational depth. Who are the players in WBS that we can count on next year when we start seeing injuries again. I understand that you can only have some much depth to take care of injuries, but who are your 8th and 9th defensemen, and your 14th and 15th forward. This is where trading picks in the past just gives you less bodies at WBS that you can call up as needed.
(3) With the lineup you show are we going to get physically manhandled when we get to playoff hockey. I think we'll get an indication this season. Every forward doesn't need to be 6'2"/220 lbs but we're probably on the smaller side as a team compared to some of the teams we'll face in trying to come out of the east.
FLPensFan wrote:pens_CT wrote:You did a great job of looking ahead and putting together a reasonable roster plan going forward. Some thoughts
(1) Yep that third defensive pairing does look scary.
(2) Lack of organizational depth. Who are the players in WBS that we can count on next year when we start seeing injuries again. I understand that you can only have some much depth to take care of injuries, but who are your 8th and 9th defensemen, and your 14th and 15th forward. This is where trading picks in the past just gives you less bodies at WBS that you can call up as needed.
(3) With the lineup you show are we going to get physically manhandled when we get to playoff hockey. I think we'll get an indication this season. Every forward doesn't need to be 6'2"/220 lbs but we're probably on the smaller side as a team compared to some of the teams we'll face in trying to come out of the east.
No need to comment further on #1
2) Still short on quality there. A.Johnson, DiPauli, Angello, Blandisi...I'm a bit surprised Sam Miletic hasn't gotten a look at the NHL level yet, but, overall, it's not impressive. Maybe some of these will grow a bit over the summer after getting some NHL experience and being told what to work on. Maybe a Bellerive, Almeida, or Pavylchev (who should be in WBS next year) step up. But the biggest issue is they just lack anybody that you could slot into a top 6 spot for 10 games and be effective. Nobody outside Legare or Poulin has a strong chance to be a top 6 player. On defense, assuming we add a RHD for the 3rd pairing, Ruhwedel as the 7th, I wouldn't doubt if POJ gets a chance at some point if he can re-bulk up this summer (he had gained 10lbs, but then got horribly sick and lost all that gained weight). I keep hearing good things about Almari, and even Nyberg that we got from Dallas. I'd prefer the organization start getting away from leaning on the Warsofsky, Trotman, Czuczman types... these "vets" that have played like 50 or less games between them. Keeping 1 around is ok...3-4, not so much.
3) I don't disagree, but, Sullivan's style just doesn't suit most guys that play a more physical game. It's a poor stat, but if I try and use hits to measure physical play, in the top 10 forwards for his, you've got Tom Wilson, Brandon Tanev, Nick Foligno, and Blake Coleman as guys that I'd trust taking a regular shift. There just aren't many guys out there that have the speed to play this system, play a physical game, and can play above the 4th line.
Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.
FLPensFan wrote:Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.
I mentioned this above, but to re-iterate. If the Penguins choose to keep Matt Murray, it makes solving any roster holes a bit more difficult with less cap space. You could solve this if you can somehow package Jarry and Bjugstad together for a young, cheap but solid bottom pairing RHD.
Also, the addition of Zucker does complicate things in regards to the expansion draft:
Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann (1 spot left for one of Tanev, Blueger, Kahun, Simon, Hornqvist...and I think whoever isn't protected out of Blueger or Tanev would be selected)
Letang, Dumo, Pettersson (Marino exempt)
Jarry/Murray
Penguins may need to look to a trade again to keep everyone safe.
stonewizard51 wrote:IMHO it will be something like it was with Vegas so anything Seattle/Francis does will be what it takes to make them immediate contenders. I'm not saying it will be the Cup finals the first year but it will be something to fill the seats the first year and every year there after.
The NHL will make a BIG deal with the draft, therefore the days of being able to draft an ECHL prospect are long gone.
sjnhiils wrote:FLPensFan wrote:Now, should the Penguins decide to keep Murray and trade Jarry, well, that works too, but, doesn't leave much cap wiggle room. I had resigned Jarry for 3.5M. Let's say Murray signs for 7M.....you add 3.5M to what you signed Jarry for to the cap hit, and replace the name Jarry with Murray. That would leave you 1M in cap space with the roster above, and still needing to improve that 3rd pairing. It works keeping Murray too, but, it makes things a bit more difficult.
I mentioned this above, but to re-iterate. If the Penguins choose to keep Matt Murray, it makes solving any roster holes a bit more difficult with less cap space. You could solve this if you can somehow package Jarry and Bjugstad together for a young, cheap but solid bottom pairing RHD.
Also, the addition of Zucker does complicate things in regards to the expansion draft:
Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann (1 spot left for one of Tanev, Blueger, Kahun, Simon, Hornqvist...and I think whoever isn't protected out of Blueger or Tanev would be selected)
Letang, Dumo, Pettersson (Marino exempt)
Jarry/Murray
Penguins may need to look to a trade again to keep everyone safe.
Hopefully Francis and Mario are still close and he goes easy on the Pens.
FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit
(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.
With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:
Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty
Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel
Jarry, DeSmith
Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.
So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.
A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.
pens_CT wrote:FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit
(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.
With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:
Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty
Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel
Jarry, DeSmith
Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.
So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.
A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.
I think the play with Murray, unless you get a lottery draft pick in return (unlikely in my opinion) is to look for a team that needs a goalie, and has a younger defender who could be had in return. McCabe isn’t bad, but there may be better options out there. I agree on Poulin, unless he flops at camp I think he is making the NHL roster next year. His skill set will allow him to start on the third line, and then potentially move up in the lineup.
FLPensFan wrote:pens_CT wrote:FLPensFan wrote:With a few pieces in and out after the trade deadline, I decided to revisit this, again assuming an 83M cap hit
(This was my original assumptions in the original post, now modified) If you look at the roster I posted above, here is how I got there:
--Assumed 83M cap.
--Need to re-sign Simon, Kahun, McCann, Jarry, Lafferty
--Simon re-signs for 2 years, 1.75M AAV, 1.5M AAV (updated note: I've lowered my expectations of Simon, and thus, his AAV)
--Kahun re-signs for 2 years, 3.25M AAV (gone via trade)
--McCann re-signs for 2 years, 3.85M AAV, 3.5M AAV (updated note: McCann has cooled, so does his AAV next season)
--Jarry re-signs for 2 years, 3.5M AAV, 3M AAV (note: Jarry has also cooled. He also doesn't have the games played or playoff success Murray had. AAV has to be lower)
--Lafferty re-signs for 1 year, 800K AAV
--Add Rodrigues resigning for 1 year, 1.5M AAV (500K pay cut). He won't hit his previous totals this year. He's taken a step backwards, and loses some salary.
With those signings, and 83M cap hit, I have the following roster with 3.349M in cap space, and a few key decisions:
Zucker-Crosby-Simon
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
McCann-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev
xRodrigues, Lafferty
Dumo-Letang
Pettersson-Schultz
Johnson-Ruhwedel
Jarry, DeSmith
Question 1:
1) If you wanted to keep Murray in place of Jarry, and if you think you can get Murray for 7M AAV, well, remove Jarry, add Murray plus 4M in additional cap space....and....we are over the cap, and still have a 3rd d-pairing issue.
2) Trade Bjugstad, slide McCann to 3C, find a 3LW. This will add 4.1M in cap space, bringing total to 7.449M. If you keep Murray over Jarry, that goes down to 3.449M to fix 3rd pairing defense, and find a new LW.
So, if Murray and Bjugstad are traded this summer, and assuming the signings at the AAV I listed, you have just under 7.5M to fix defense and get a 3rd line LW. What would I look at:
1) Trade Murray to Buffalo for Jake McCabe and some other piece. McCabe is a solid 26 year old LD, who could even push Pettersson for the 2nd pairing spot. 2.85M next year then a UFA at the end of next season.
2) Trade Murray to Ottawa for a lottery pick.
3) Trade Murray for a younger RD and another piece.
4) Trade Murray for picks and prospects only, to help restock the system.
5) Bjugstad probably won't net a ton at this point. I'd say lucky to get a 3rd.
A big help for that 3rd line LW spot would be if Poulin can jump to the NHL next year. GMJR said he should have a chance to challenge for NHL job.
I think the play with Murray, unless you get a lottery draft pick in return (unlikely in my opinion) is to look for a team that needs a goalie, and has a younger defender who could be had in return. McCabe isn’t bad, but there may be better options out there. I agree on Poulin, unless he flops at camp I think he is making the NHL roster next year. His skill set will allow him to start on the third line, and then potentially move up in the lineup.
I agree that the lottery pick is probably unlikely, and getting an upgrade at RD or LD for the 3rd pairing would be an idea. Just trying to look at some teams who may need a goalie, and a young RFA RD or LD they could send back:
Chicago - RD Boqvist
Edmonton - RD Bear
Carolina - LD Fleury
Detroit - LD Cholowski
Those are really the only 4 names I could come up with, and not sure how likely teams will be to move those guys.
FLPensFan wrote:****WARNING: This will be long.
Jim wrote:FLPensFan wrote:****WARNING: This will be long.
Yowza
Jim wrote:I am dreading another summer of this. In all probability, Johnson is not going anywhere, at least not until after the expansion draft. He doesn't have a NTC, but Pettersson didn't have a 6 year contract when he signed the 1 year deal this past summer...
(It doesn't have anything to do with the expansion draft itself, just that more spots will be open, more options available, time will have passed to get his life together, Crosby will be okay with it)
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