A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

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A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:22 am

While we wait for a trade, a Pettersson signing, and training camp to begin, I thought I would take a little look into the future to see what this team might look like 3 seasons from now. This is all for fun. For this exercise, I am erring on the side of guys hitting their potential and not becoming a bust.

In the 2022-2023, the following players will still be under their current contracts:
--Crosby, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Tanev, Dumoulin, and Johnson

Of those players, I expect Hornqvist and Johnson to not be here.

Current players on 19-20 roster not signed or traded away by 22-23 season: Rust, Bjugstad, Simon, Gudbranson, Schultz, Letang, Malkin, DeSmith

I will also make some assumptions that the following players will also be under contracts by then:
--Murray, Pettersson, Galchenyuk, McCann

The Penguins major UFAs in the 2022-2023 offseason are:
--Malkin, Letang

Penguins prospects that I expect to be playing at NHL level:
--Poulin, Legare, Addison, Joseph, Bjorkqvist, Lafferty

Guentzel-Crosby-Bjorkqvist
Poulin-X-Galchenyuk
McCann-Blueger-Kahun
Tanev-Lafferty-ZAR
xJohnson, Legare

Dumoulin-X
Pettersson-Addison
Joseph-Marino
xAlmari

Murray
Larmi

Now, do I really believe that in 3 years, 10-12 current prospects are going to be in the Penguins lineup? Not a chance. What this does though, is give you a look at who could still be here and effective from the current group, what prospects may be in the pipeline to replace other players, what positions the Penguins have no in-house replacement for, and, just how many decent prospects the Penguins have may never play for them.

The Penguins biggest needs in the next 3 years will be finding a Malkin and Letang replacement. There is nobody in-house who could replace either of those guys. Addison would have to hit full potential, and I still think he would be a poor man's #1, really a #2/3 type playing a top role. I expect the Penguins will need to find better. The biggest name missing off of this list is Hallander, and the main reason I left him off is, in the league he plays, it is just too difficult to judge his output at the NHL level....but I don't see him having the production level to be a solid #2 guy.

There are also some decent prospect that don't get a chance: Drozg, Angello, Almeida, Pavylchev, Bellerive, Miletic. Could also be that some of these guys swap with guys I have above, or get in some games before burning out.

Anyways, since there isn't much to talk about, I figured I'd take a peek ahead and see what we have in-house in the future.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Ericf on Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:54 am

Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby penny lane on Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:07 am

In 2002 Kent Manderville and. Randy Robitille was on the pens roster. I never heard of Sid. I knew about Evgeni and Oveckin. You can't really know what circumstance will occur.
savior the moments. I have and will continue.
Fans in such a hurry to get rid of Evgeni. Don't get it.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Puck-Lurker on Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:04 pm

penny lane wrote:In 2002 Kent Manderville and. Randy Robitaille was on the pens roster. I never heard of Sid. I knew about Evgeni and Oveckin. You can't really know what circumstance will occur.
savior the moments. I have and will continue.
Fans in such a hurry to get rid of Evgeni. Don't get it.

I think Malkin either retires a Penguin, or goes back to Russia. In the former, he'll likely be on a fading Pens team, the latter he can be comfortable on one of the better KHL teams. Either way, three years an then his contract expires, leaving him UFA.

There's also the players on our team aging. If posters thought Crosby-Malkin-Letang were 50 years old before, they'll certainly do by then. So if we still have Sid, Geno and Kris by then, they'll miss a step, or two. Either way, 22-23 is past what I'd call "the window" for these guys. If they're still as is, though a bit lessened, resign them for a few more years. At current contract $ or less -- which would make them cheaper as a percentage of the cap.


I'm not posting lines. It's near impossible to predict the lines come playoff time, never mind several seasons into the future. I've indicated in other threads before that I'm curious in what some of our pickups will do. Joseph, Marino, Addison, Adam Johnson.. not holding my breath though. Adam Johnson can plug on the fourth line, the real question may be whether he can LD better than Jack Johnson.. maybe then we can trade jersey numbers - try and beef up JJ's stats and trade JJ.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby pens_CT on Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:40 pm

Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


No team gracefully transitions away from two generational players.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby longtimefan on Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:00 pm

Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


There are a lot of other factors at play. First and foremost, JR has said since the day he was hired that Pittsburgh would eventually pay a price for mortgaging the future. He's been very upfront. I'm like Penny, savor the moment. I've had the privilege to attend every home Stanley Cup Finals game in the team's history. All 17 of them. I'd venture an educated guess that it's the most of any franchise in the last 30 years. People remember championships, not really good teams. The mandate is to win as many Cups as you can in what remains of the Crosby/Malkin era.

They may very well go into a tailspin for a few years. They've had tremendous success with that model. It's the reason guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin, became Pens. All were top 5 picks. So were Fleury and Staal. The league is designed for teams to be good on a cyclical basis. Remember, only the Pens have a playoff streak longer than 5 years.

What you're seeing is what's left of being in win now mode since the Hossa trade. Eventually, it will catch up. The talent is thin, because they've only drafted 30 players during JR's tenure. And Shero had no issues moving picks and prospects for rentals. But the truth is we are guessing about all of these guys. We don't know what they will turn out to be. Or who will even play in the league. We only read scouting reports and watch some video. I've seen too many can't miss guys miss, and too many late round picks become stars.

The other factor, which will be different from the past, is an ownership group willing to spend to the cap. Along with unrestricted free agency. As contracts expire, cap space will be created. If the team views itself as being close, they have the wherewithal to go get a player or two. So it will add an interesting dynamic to the eventual rebuild.

Chances are the Pens will go into at least semi tank mode. They may well trade guys like Guentzel, Dumoulin, McCann, etc, to collect lottery tickets. Draft picks and high end prospects. Then the scouts have a job to do. How long will it take? It depends on the quality of players like FLPensFan mentioned above. And it depends on the quality of those lottery picks. That's the nature of a rebuild.

The question I ask is, if it takes five years, was it worth it. My answer is a resounding yes.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:25 pm

penny lane wrote:In 2002 Kent Manderville and. Randy Robitille was on the pens roster. I never heard of Sid. I knew about Evgeni and Oveckin. You can't really know what circumstance will occur.
savior the moments. I have and will continue.
Fans in such a hurry to get rid of Evgeni. Don't get it.

I'm in no hurry to get rid of Malkin. But, I am not confident Malkin signs another contract when his current one expires. No ill will, but, I could honestly see him wanting to play in Russia to finish out his career.

The point here wasn't let's get rid of Geno and Letang, the point was, what does this team have available coming up through the ranks, and what may still remain from the current roster.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby FLPensFan on Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:27 pm

longtimefan wrote:
Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


There are a lot of other factors at play. First and foremost, JR has said since the day he was hired that Pittsburgh would eventually pay a price for mortgaging the future. He's been very upfront. I'm like Penny, savor the moment. I've had the privilege to attend every home Stanley Cup Finals game in the team's history. All 17 of them. I'd venture an educated guess that it's the most of any franchise in the last 30 years. People remember championships, not really good teams. The mandate is to win as many Cups as you can in what remains of the Crosby/Malkin era.

They may very well go into a tailspin for a few years. They've had tremendous success with that model. It's the reason guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin, became Pens. All were top 5 picks. So were Fleury and Staal. The league is designed for teams to be good on a cyclical basis. Remember, only the Pens have a playoff streak longer than 5 years.

What you're seeing is what's left of being in win now mode since the Hossa trade. Eventually, it will catch up. The talent is thin, because they've only drafted 30 players during JR's tenure. And Shero had no issues moving picks and prospects for rentals. But the truth is we are guessing about all of these guys. We don't know what they will turn out to be. Or who will even play in the league. We only read scouting reports and watch some video. I've seen too many can't miss guys miss, and too many late round picks become stars.

The other factor, which will be different from the past, is an ownership group willing to spend to the cap. Along with unrestricted free agency. As contracts expire, cap space will be created. If the team views itself as being close, they have the wherewithal to go get a player or two. So it will add an interesting dynamic to the eventual rebuild.

Chances are the Pens will go into at least semi tank mode. They may well trade guys like Guentzel, Dumoulin, McCann, etc, to collect lottery tickets. Draft picks and high end prospects. Then the scouts have a job to do. How long will it take? It depends on the quality of players like FLPensFan mentioned above. And it depends on the quality of those lottery picks. That's the nature of a rebuild.

The question I ask is, if it takes five years, was it worth it. My answer is a resounding yes.

I actually don't think that roster is that horrible at all. You have 2 big holes to fill, and, like I said, I don't think ALL of those prospects make it on the roster.....mainly because very few are high end guys.

A lot of their future will depend on Guentzel continuing to play like he did last season, Galchenyuk becoming consistent, and McCann elevating his play.
You sprinkle in a Bjorkqvist and Poulin as young up and comers, and you go out and get a solid 2C and top defenseman.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Ericf on Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:16 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


There are a lot of other factors at play. First and foremost, JR has said since the day he was hired that Pittsburgh would eventually pay a price for mortgaging the future. He's been very upfront. I'm like Penny, savor the moment. I've had the privilege to attend every home Stanley Cup Finals game in the team's history. All 17 of them. I'd venture an educated guess that it's the most of any franchise in the last 30 years. People remember championships, not really good teams. The mandate is to win as many Cups as you can in what remains of the Crosby/Malkin era.

They may very well go into a tailspin for a few years. They've had tremendous success with that model. It's the reason guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin, became Pens. All were top 5 picks. So were Fleury and Staal. The league is designed for teams to be good on a cyclical basis. Remember, only the Pens have a playoff streak longer than 5 years.

What you're seeing is what's left of being in win now mode since the Hossa trade. Eventually, it will catch up. The talent is thin, because they've only drafted 30 players during JR's tenure. And Shero had no issues moving picks and prospects for rentals. But the truth is we are guessing about all of these guys. We don't know what they will turn out to be. Or who will even play in the league. We only read scouting reports and watch some video. I've seen too many can't miss guys miss, and too many late round picks become stars.

The other factor, which will be different from the past, is an ownership group willing to spend to the cap. Along with unrestricted free agency. As contracts expire, cap space will be created. If the team views itself as being close, they have the wherewithal to go get a player or two. So it will add an interesting dynamic to the eventual rebuild.

Chances are the Pens will go into at least semi tank mode. They may well trade guys like Guentzel, Dumoulin, McCann, etc, to collect lottery tickets. Draft picks and high end prospects. Then the scouts have a job to do. How long will it take? It depends on the quality of players like FLPensFan mentioned above. And it depends on the quality of those lottery picks. That's the nature of a rebuild.

The question I ask is, if it takes five years, was it worth it. My answer is a resounding yes.

I actually don't think that roster is that horrible at all. You have 2 big holes to fill, and, like I said, I don't think ALL of those prospects make it on the roster.....mainly because very few are high end guys.

A lot of their future will depend on Guentzel continuing to play like he did last season, Galchenyuk becoming consistent, and McCann elevating his play.
You sprinkle in a Bjorkqvist and Poulin as young up and comers, and you go out and get a solid 2C and top defenseman.


Without elite players at center (Sid will be declining) and #1D the Pens have no chance to be real Cup contenders...the roster you have listed in 3+ years is not Cup worthy...Pens absolutely must get a couple top draft picks who pan out as elite or franchise players...
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby pens_CT on Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:28 pm

Ericf wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


There are a lot of other factors at play. First and foremost, JR has said since the day he was hired that Pittsburgh would eventually pay a price for mortgaging the future. He's been very upfront. I'm like Penny, savor the moment. I've had the privilege to attend every home Stanley Cup Finals game in the team's history. All 17 of them. I'd venture an educated guess that it's the most of any franchise in the last 30 years. People remember championships, not really good teams. The mandate is to win as many Cups as you can in what remains of the Crosby/Malkin era.

They may very well go into a tailspin for a few years. They've had tremendous success with that model. It's the reason guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin, became Pens. All were top 5 picks. So were Fleury and Staal. The league is designed for teams to be good on a cyclical basis. Remember, only the Pens have a playoff streak longer than 5 years.

What you're seeing is what's left of being in win now mode since the Hossa trade. Eventually, it will catch up. The talent is thin, because they've only drafted 30 players during JR's tenure. And Shero had no issues moving picks and prospects for rentals. But the truth is we are guessing about all of these guys. We don't know what they will turn out to be. Or who will even play in the league. We only read scouting reports and watch some video. I've seen too many can't miss guys miss, and too many late round picks become stars.

The other factor, which will be different from the past, is an ownership group willing to spend to the cap. Along with unrestricted free agency. As contracts expire, cap space will be created. If the team views itself as being close, they have the wherewithal to go get a player or two. So it will add an interesting dynamic to the eventual rebuild.

Chances are the Pens will go into at least semi tank mode. They may well trade guys like Guentzel, Dumoulin, McCann, etc, to collect lottery tickets. Draft picks and high end prospects. Then the scouts have a job to do. How long will it take? It depends on the quality of players like FLPensFan mentioned above. And it depends on the quality of those lottery picks. That's the nature of a rebuild.

The question I ask is, if it takes five years, was it worth it. My answer is a resounding yes.

I actually don't think that roster is that horrible at all. You have 2 big holes to fill, and, like I said, I don't think ALL of those prospects make it on the roster.....mainly because very few are high end guys.

A lot of their future will depend on Guentzel continuing to play like he did last season, Galchenyuk becoming consistent, and McCann elevating his play.
You sprinkle in a Bjorkqvist and Poulin as young up and comers, and you go out and get a solid 2C and top defenseman.


Without elite players at center (Sid will be declining) and #1D the Pens have no chance to be real Cup contenders...the roster you have listed in 3+ years is not Cup worthy...Pens absolutely must get a couple top draft picks who pan out as elite or franchise players...


Who does St Louis have that is an elite center? O'Reilly is a good player but is nowhere near being elite. Seems to me they just won a cup. Also if my memory is correct we won our last cup without Letang or a true #1D.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Ericf on Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:01 pm

pens_CT wrote:
Ericf wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
Ericf wrote:Basically this just reinforces that the Pens will be Ottawa in a few years and will need to be bottom feeders to get a couple years of top 5 draft selections before they can compete again...


There are a lot of other factors at play. First and foremost, JR has said since the day he was hired that Pittsburgh would eventually pay a price for mortgaging the future. He's been very upfront. I'm like Penny, savor the moment. I've had the privilege to attend every home Stanley Cup Finals game in the team's history. All 17 of them. I'd venture an educated guess that it's the most of any franchise in the last 30 years. People remember championships, not really good teams. The mandate is to win as many Cups as you can in what remains of the Crosby/Malkin era.

They may very well go into a tailspin for a few years. They've had tremendous success with that model. It's the reason guys like Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and Malkin, became Pens. All were top 5 picks. So were Fleury and Staal. The league is designed for teams to be good on a cyclical basis. Remember, only the Pens have a playoff streak longer than 5 years.

What you're seeing is what's left of being in win now mode since the Hossa trade. Eventually, it will catch up. The talent is thin, because they've only drafted 30 players during JR's tenure. And Shero had no issues moving picks and prospects for rentals. But the truth is we are guessing about all of these guys. We don't know what they will turn out to be. Or who will even play in the league. We only read scouting reports and watch some video. I've seen too many can't miss guys miss, and too many late round picks become stars.

The other factor, which will be different from the past, is an ownership group willing to spend to the cap. Along with unrestricted free agency. As contracts expire, cap space will be created. If the team views itself as being close, they have the wherewithal to go get a player or two. So it will add an interesting dynamic to the eventual rebuild.

Chances are the Pens will go into at least semi tank mode. They may well trade guys like Guentzel, Dumoulin, McCann, etc, to collect lottery tickets. Draft picks and high end prospects. Then the scouts have a job to do. How long will it take? It depends on the quality of players like FLPensFan mentioned above. And it depends on the quality of those lottery picks. That's the nature of a rebuild.

The question I ask is, if it takes five years, was it worth it. My answer is a resounding yes.

I actually don't think that roster is that horrible at all. You have 2 big holes to fill, and, like I said, I don't think ALL of those prospects make it on the roster.....mainly because very few are high end guys.

A lot of their future will depend on Guentzel continuing to play like he did last season, Galchenyuk becoming consistent, and McCann elevating his play.
You sprinkle in a Bjorkqvist and Poulin as young up and comers, and you go out and get a solid 2C and top defenseman.


Without elite players at center (Sid will be declining) and #1D the Pens have no chance to be real Cup contenders...the roster you have listed in 3+ years is not Cup worthy...Pens absolutely must get a couple top draft picks who pan out as elite or franchise players...


Who does St Louis have that is an elite center? O'Reilly is a good player but is nowhere near being elite. Seems to me they just won a cup. Also if my memory is correct we won our last cup without Letang or a true #1D.

OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite. Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Hatrick on Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:37 pm

they wouldn't be awful that year, but I think the cup window will have been relatively shut by then. The next three years will be their cup window years, followed by probably a couple years of being competitive but not great, follow by probably a rebuild and getting some high draft picks.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Southern Fan on Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:01 am

Who will be the coach and GM in 22-23?
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Daniel on Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:41 am

Southern Fan wrote:Who will be the coach and GM in 22-23?


Wouldn't be surprised if Mike Vellucci is the NHL GM in 22-23. Matt Cullen for head coach.....okay, no idea.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby brwi on Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:25 pm

Ericf wrote:OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite.

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...


He's a very good player and had a great post season, but I wouldn't call him an elite player at all. He's had 10 seasons to show what he has and it's not what I'd call elite. That's a real stretch. Tarasenko is closer to elite than OReilly but probably in the #15-20 range of talents in the NHL. I'd put Pietrangelo in the top 5 or 6 dmen in the league(and unnoticed mostly), but I don't really see any dman as being an elite player right now and has there really been one since Karlsson 2013-2015? Some very good ones but all pretty much performing at a similar level.

I think the point was that STL won a Cup without any superstars and got hot as a team and got great goaltending when it mattered.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Puck-Lurker on Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:25 pm

Daniel wrote:
Southern Fan wrote:Who will be the coach and GM in 22-23?


Wouldn't be surprised if Mike Vellucci is the NHL GM in 22-23. Matt Cullen for head coach.....okay, no idea.

I wouldn't be too surprised Sullivan is still head coach by then.

22-23 might see a season with a lessened Crosby and potentially neither of Malkin and Letang, but so what? There'll only be 32 HC jobs in the league by then and I'd say about 2 to 3 times the amount of potential coaches. Something to be said for job security. If management is fine with him, he might have a spot here.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Hatrick on Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:39 pm

Southern Fan wrote:Who will be the coach and GM in 22-23?

no idea who it would be, but i do have a strong idea of who it wont(or shouldnt be)

most likely Rutherford wont be the GM, and chances are Sullivan wont be the coach.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby pens_CT on Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:34 pm

brwi wrote:
Ericf wrote:OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite.

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...


He's a very good player and had a great post season, but I wouldn't call him an elite player at all. He's had 10 seasons to show what he has and it's not what I'd call elite. That's a real stretch. Tarasenko is closer to elite than OReilly but probably in the #15-20 range of talents in the NHL. I'd put Pietrangelo in the top 5 or 6 dmen in the league(and unnoticed mostly), but I don't really see any dman as being an elite player right now and has there really been one since Karlsson 2013-2015? Some very good ones but all pretty much performing at a similar level.

I think the point was that STL won a Cup without any superstars and got hot as a team and got great goaltending when it mattered.


:thumb: :thumb: It certainly helps to have an elite player or two on the team, but its not a requirement assuming you get contributions from each of the lines and have the goaltending.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Ericf on Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:00 pm

brwi wrote:
Ericf wrote:OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite.

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...


He's a very good player and had a great post season, but I wouldn't call him an elite player at all. He's had 10 seasons to show what he has and it's not what I'd call elite. That's a real stretch. Tarasenko is closer to elite than OReilly but probably in the #15-20 range of talents in the NHL. I'd put Pietrangelo in the top 5 or 6 dmen in the league(and unnoticed mostly), but I don't really see any dman as being an elite player right now and has there really been one since Karlsson 2013-2015? Some very good ones but all pretty much performing at a similar level.

I think the point was that STL won a Cup without any superstars and got hot as a team and got great goaltending when it mattered.


He had 77 points last year and was in the top 13 centers in the league. I think he was elite last year. Granted he didn’t show that in BUF but he wanted out of there so who knows...he still was a 60 point player but maybe not elite. Imo if you are in the top 20 centers or D men in the league you are elite. Maybe you have a different definition.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby brwi on Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:44 pm

Ericf wrote:
brwi wrote:
Ericf wrote:OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite.

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...


He's a very good player and had a great post season, but I wouldn't call him an elite player at all. He's had 10 seasons to show what he has and it's not what I'd call elite. That's a real stretch. Tarasenko is closer to elite than OReilly but probably in the #15-20 range of talents in the NHL. I'd put Pietrangelo in the top 5 or 6 dmen in the league(and unnoticed mostly), but I don't really see any dman as being an elite player right now and has there really been one since Karlsson 2013-2015? Some very good ones but all pretty much performing at a similar level.

I think the point was that STL won a Cup without any superstars and got hot as a team and got great goaltending when it mattered.


He had 77 points last year and was in the top 13 centers in the league. I think he was elite last year. Granted he didn’t show that in BUF but he wanted out of there so who knows...he still was a 60 point player but maybe not elite. Imo if you are in the top 20 centers or D men in the league you are elite. Maybe you have a different definition.


I probably have a pretty narrow definition of elite. I tend to regard elite as generational talents or real close to that and whose talent and abilities have very few peers.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby saveourpens on Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:27 am

Been forever since I posted here. I remember lottery day when Crosby was drafted and asking what you guys thought the chances were he stays a lifetime Pen. 3 Stanley Cups later here we are!
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby sjnhiils on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:06 am

FLPensFan wrote:While we wait for a trade, a Pettersson signing, and training camp to begin, I thought I would take a little look into the future to see what this team might look like 3 seasons from now. This is all for fun. For this exercise, I am erring on the side of guys hitting their potential and not becoming a bust.

In the 2022-2023, the following players will still be under their current contracts:
--Crosby, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Tanev, Dumoulin, and Johnson

Of those players, I expect Hornqvist and Johnson to not be here.

Current players on 19-20 roster not signed or traded away by 22-23 season: Rust, Bjugstad, Simon, Gudbranson, Schultz, Letang, Malkin, DeSmith

I will also make some assumptions that the following players will also be under contracts by then:
--Murray, Pettersson, Galchenyuk, McCann

The Penguins major UFAs in the 2022-2023 offseason are:
--Malkin, Letang

Penguins prospects that I expect to be playing at NHL level:
--Poulin, Legare, Addison, Joseph, Bjorkqvist, Lafferty

Guentzel-Crosby-Bjorkqvist
Poulin-X-Galchenyuk
McCann-Blueger-Kahun
Tanev-Lafferty-ZAR
xJohnson, Legare

Dumoulin-X
Pettersson-Addison
Joseph-Marino
xAlmari

Murray
Larmi

Now, do I really believe that in 3 years, 10-12 current prospects are going to be in the Penguins lineup? Not a chance. What this does though, is give you a look at who could still be here and effective from the current group, what prospects may be in the pipeline to replace other players, what positions the Penguins have no in-house replacement for, and, just how many decent prospects the Penguins have may never play for them.

The Penguins biggest needs in the next 3 years will be finding a Malkin and Letang replacement. There is nobody in-house who could replace either of those guys. Addison would have to hit full potential, and I still think he would be a poor man's #1, really a #2/3 type playing a top role. I expect the Penguins will need to find better. The biggest name missing off of this list is Hallander, and the main reason I left him off is, in the league he plays, it is just too difficult to judge his output at the NHL level....but I don't see him having the production level to be a solid #2 guy.

There are also some decent prospect that don't get a chance: Drozg, Angello, Almeida, Pavylchev, Bellerive, Miletic. Could also be that some of these guys swap with guys I have above, or get in some games before burning out.

Anyways, since there isn't much to talk about, I figured I'd take a peek ahead and see what we have in-house in the future.

Was out at prospect camp over the summer, and although they are older, Luchinni and Hawkins both looked good in the scrimmages. They could provide some depth in the future if callups are needed in a pinch. Gorman was also impressive and he could give them some center depth 3 years from now.
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Re: A look into the future: Penguins 22-23 season

Postby Hatrick on Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:55 pm

Ericf wrote:
brwi wrote:
Ericf wrote:OReilly played at an elite level if you were watching that series...when he’s motivated, he’s definitely elite.

Tarasenko and Pietrangelo are elite players...the rest of the top 6 and top 3 defenders are good players but not elite...they have three elite players, no franchise players...but they also had crazy good goaltending which can mask a lot of lineup flaws...that’s always a key to winning in the POs and even with Sid, G etc, the Pens would not have won anything without Murray and MAF playing great...


He's a very good player and had a great post season, but I wouldn't call him an elite player at all. He's had 10 seasons to show what he has and it's not what I'd call elite. That's a real stretch. Tarasenko is closer to elite than OReilly but probably in the #15-20 range of talents in the NHL. I'd put Pietrangelo in the top 5 or 6 dmen in the league(and unnoticed mostly), but I don't really see any dman as being an elite player right now and has there really been one since Karlsson 2013-2015? Some very good ones but all pretty much performing at a similar level.

I think the point was that STL won a Cup without any superstars and got hot as a team and got great goaltending when it mattered.


He had 77 points last year and was in the top 13 centers in the league. I think he was elite last year. Granted he didn’t show that in BUF but he wanted out of there so who knows...he still was a 60 point player but maybe not elite. Imo if you are in the top 20 centers or D men in the league you are elite. Maybe you have a different definition.

elite certainly has different meanings to different people, personally I would not put 20 at one position in that category. That would be a center from 2/3 of teams nearly(it would be less because of teams with two top 20 centers such as Pittsburgh). I would say closer to the top 5 or so could be considered elite.
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