2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Forum for Pittsburgh Penguins-related messages.

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby DelPen on Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:22 am

FLPensFan wrote:Yohe spoke to Rutherford yesterday. Some important quotes below: Yohe-Rutherford

One thing was made supremely clear: Just because other goaltenders around the league are receiving massive new contracts doesn’t mean the Penguins are in a rush to sign Matt Murray to a new deal. (Basically, Yohe asked him 3 questions about a new Murray deal....and GMJR's response each time was, "Well, he's still an RFA next year.")

On Jarry, he just mentioned it was a flooded goalie market. They won't carry 3 goalies. GMJR said he'll see what happens closer to camp, as often teams realize around then their goalie depth isn't as strong as they thought.

It really sounds like a deal in principle with Pettersson may already be agreed upon, and does sound like a longer term deal. The only holdup is free cap space. Rutherford mentioned that this time of year deals are hard to get done and take longer (likely because a lot of GMs are on vacation), but he said it does look like they would have to move a player.


He’s clearly lying about not giving Murray a huge contract. It’s coming.
DelPen
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 50,746
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 9:27 am
Location: Lake Wylie, SC

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby ville5 on Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:44 pm

pens_CT wrote:
penny lane wrote:I just saw K Shattenkirk was trending...NYR bought out his contract. They had to make cap space room. Oops.


I thought the window for buying out contracts had closed?

I think there was a stipulation that if teams had 2 or more arbitration cases, they had a special buyout period. It only lasts like 5 days and the window started after the arbitration hearing?
ville5
AHL Hall of Famer
AHL Hall of Famer
 
Posts: 8,247
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:17 pm
Location: getting body slammed by kelly kelly

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:54 pm

ville5 wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
penny lane wrote:I just saw K Shattenkirk was trending...NYR bought out his contract. They had to make cap space room. Oops.


I thought the window for buying out contracts had closed?

I think there was a stipulation that if teams had 2 or more arbitration cases, they had a special buyout period. It only lasts like 5 days and the window started after the arbitration hearing?

There is one that is related to teams that have arbitration hearings for players.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Puck-Lurker on Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:20 pm

DelPen wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:Yohe spoke to Rutherford yesterday. Some important quotes below: Yohe-Rutherford

One thing was made supremely clear: Just because other goaltenders around the league are receiving massive new contracts doesn’t mean the Penguins are in a rush to sign Matt Murray to a new deal. (Basically, Yohe asked him 3 questions about a new Murray deal....and GMJR's response each time was, "Well, he's still an RFA next year.")

On Jarry, he just mentioned it was a flooded goalie market. They won't carry 3 goalies. GMJR said he'll see what happens closer to camp, as often teams realize around then their goalie depth isn't as strong as they thought.

It really sounds like a deal in principle with Pettersson may already be agreed upon, and does sound like a longer term deal. The only holdup is free cap space. Rutherford mentioned that this time of year deals are hard to get done and take longer (likely because a lot of GMs are on vacation), but he said it does look like they would have to move a player.


He’s clearly lying about not giving Murray a huge contract. It’s coming.

In that case, a MP overpay is coming too. 4M long term.
Puck-Lurker
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 4,591
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:49 am
Location: Is apparently an annoying poster.

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby penny lane on Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:33 pm

I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.
penny lane
NHL Third Liner
NHL Third Liner
 
Posts: 34,752
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 6:29 pm
Location: Pingvin na vsyu zhizn

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:21 pm

The Athletic did a piece on fan confidence in their teams front office. The author has been doing this for several years, and, whereas he used to have around 200 total votes, this annual piece is now getting around 12,000 total votes.

The Penguins were 2nd a few years ago, slipped to 8th, and now fell to 26th. Pretty interesting read.

https://theathletic.com/1123303/2019/08/08/the-2019-nhl-front-office-confidence-rankings-fans-weigh-in-on-how-each-team-is-doing/?source=twittered
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby stonewizard51 on Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:38 am

penny lane wrote:I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.


I've been hard on Murray myself and will be right there with you eating crow if that happens so here's to hoping there's a chef somewhere who knows how to make crow tasty.
stonewizard51
AHL'er
AHL'er
 
Posts: 2,942
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:26 pm

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby murphydump55 on Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:44 am

stonewizard51 wrote:
penny lane wrote:I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.


I've been hard on Murray myself and will be right there with you eating crow if that happens so here's to hoping there's a chef somewhere who knows how to make crow tasty.


I played in a golf tourney yesterday with Carter Hutton and Bortuzzo and was hoping Murray would be there too so I could pick his brain. Unfortunately he didn’t play, however I’ll be playing with his summer goaltending coach soon and I’ll try to get some insight on what they’ve been working on and how he looks. I’m confident in him.

3 goaltenders in the NHL that have been coached by my friend throughout the years. Blackwood, Hutton, and Murray. I’ll report back on how he’s looked this summer.
murphydump55
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,293
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:06 pm
Location: the real hockeyville and apparently a janitor from Eastern Canada LOL

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:25 pm

murphydump55 wrote:
stonewizard51 wrote:
penny lane wrote:I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.


I've been hard on Murray myself and will be right there with you eating crow if that happens so here's to hoping there's a chef somewhere who knows how to make crow tasty.


I played in a golf tourney yesterday with Carter Hutton and Bortuzzo and was hoping Murray would be there too so I could pick his brain. Unfortunately he didn’t play, however I’ll be playing with his summer goaltending coach soon and I’ll try to get some insight on what they’ve been working on and how he looks. I’m confident in him.

3 goaltenders in the NHL that have been coached by my friend throughout the years. Blackwood, Hutton, and Murray. I’ll report back on how he’s looked this summer.

Just out of curiosity, what is the tournament for? Charity event or something? I know you have played in it for several years, as I recall Hutton's not so flattering feedback on Cody Franson a few years back. :D
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby murphydump55 on Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:28 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
murphydump55 wrote:
stonewizard51 wrote:
penny lane wrote:I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.


I've been hard on Murray myself and will be right there with you eating crow if that happens so here's to hoping there's a chef somewhere who knows how to make crow tasty.


I played in a golf tourney yesterday with Carter Hutton and Bortuzzo and was hoping Murray would be there too so I could pick his brain. Unfortunately he didn’t play, however I’ll be playing with his summer goaltending coach soon and I’ll try to get some insight on what they’ve been working on and how he looks. I’m confident in him.

3 goaltenders in the NHL that have been coached by my friend throughout the years. Blackwood, Hutton, and Murray. I’ll report back on how he’s looked this summer.

Just out of curiosity, what is the tournament for? Charity event or something? I know you have played in it for several years, as I recall Hutton's not so flattering feedback on Cody Franson a few years back. :D


My previous rounds with Hutton and Murray were just regular rounds of golf with their summer coach and I. Those weren't any special event type things. Carter is actually friends with a lot of my close friends, so I see him at a lot of gatherings and such.

Yesterday's round of golf was a charity event that Carter Hutton took over from Patrick Sharp last year. Here's a link to the homepage of the event. It's been quite successful over the years.

https://www.hometownheroesgolf.com/ (it's actually played at the course that I'm a member at)

Our hometown players give a LOT back to the community, which continues to prove how great hockey players are. This event raises money for the George Jeffrey Childrens's Foundation. Bortuzzo brought the Cup there this summer for all the kids to see, something he didn't have to do. Borts and Hutton are very good friends, so it wasn't surprising.

We had a previous Canadian PGA tour event here in Thunder Bay as well. The Staal foundation was the primary sponsor of the event, fittingly called the Staal Open. Again, tbay boys giving back.
murphydump55
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,293
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2013 2:06 pm
Location: the real hockeyville and apparently a janitor from Eastern Canada LOL

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:47 pm

murphydump55 wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
murphydump55 wrote:
stonewizard51 wrote:
penny lane wrote:I think GMJR is going to gamble on Matt Murray and try to motivate. Being an old goalie. Murray could have been one of the comfortable players referred to at the end of the season. I will be happy to eat crow if Murray returns to shutdown clutch in the play offs.


I've been hard on Murray myself and will be right there with you eating crow if that happens so here's to hoping there's a chef somewhere who knows how to make crow tasty.


I played in a golf tourney yesterday with Carter Hutton and Bortuzzo and was hoping Murray would be there too so I could pick his brain. Unfortunately he didn’t play, however I’ll be playing with his summer goaltending coach soon and I’ll try to get some insight on what they’ve been working on and how he looks. I’m confident in him.

3 goaltenders in the NHL that have been coached by my friend throughout the years. Blackwood, Hutton, and Murray. I’ll report back on how he’s looked this summer.

Just out of curiosity, what is the tournament for? Charity event or something? I know you have played in it for several years, as I recall Hutton's not so flattering feedback on Cody Franson a few years back. :D


My previous rounds with Hutton and Murray were just regular rounds of golf with their summer coach and I. Those weren't any special event type things. Carter is actually friends with a lot of my close friends, so I see him at a lot of gatherings and such.

Yesterday's round of golf was a charity event that Carter Hutton took over from Patrick Sharp last year. Here's a link to the homepage of the event. It's been quite successful over the years.

https://www.hometownheroesgolf.com/ (it's actually played at the course that I'm a member at)

Our hometown players give a LOT back to the community, which continues to prove how great hockey players are. This event raises money for the George Jeffrey Childrens's Foundation. Bortuzzo brought the Cup there this summer for all the kids to see, something he didn't have to do. Borts and Hutton are very good friends, so it wasn't surprising.

We had a previous Canadian PGA tour event here in Thunder Bay as well. The Staal foundation was the primary sponsor of the event, fittingly called the Staal Open. Again, tbay boys giving back.

:thumb: Cool deal. Thanks!
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby KG on Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:32 am

JR really needs to clean up that bottom pairing D. I think we are going to see some significant changes to the blue line over the next season.

I think Letang/Dumo/MP are going to be the staples for the foreseeable future. Schultz is a pending UFA who is going to want a raise I'm sure. I don't know if he is worth that. In a perfect world if we could add a #3 D man that would be ideal. One that could anchor the 2nd pairing as MP matures. Easier said than done...

JJ/EG will need to be addressed sooner than later. Way too much money and cap space are tied up for the 3rd pairing/7th d man.

Nothing new or earth shattering here. Just going through the dog days of summer with minimal action! :)
KG
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 17,597
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 11:53 am
Location: NY

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby 100565 on Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:53 am

KG wrote: with minimal action! :)


Before the offseason started, it seemed as though the league would see several big trades. Nothing, though.

Something has got to give.. too many teams with little (or no) cap.
100565
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 367
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:04 pm

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:03 am

My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Ohio_Pens_fan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:23 am

FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


As usual, a well-thought-out and researched piece by you. However, you left out the terrible career-ending hangnail incident of JJ. Tragic...simply tragic.
Ohio_Pens_fan
Junior 'A'
Junior 'A'
 
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:01 pm
Location: central Illinois (at present)

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:28 am

Ohio_Pens_fan wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


As usual, a well-thought-out and researched piece by you. However, you left out the terrible career-ending hangnail incident of JJ. Tragic...simply tragic.

Hangnail? I heard he developed a hyper-sensitivity to cold conditions, and doctors have advised him to no longer play hockey, and move somewhere closer to the equator to avoid cold weather conditions.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Daniel on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:31 am

100565 wrote:
KG wrote: with minimal action! :)


Before the offseason started, it seemed as though the league would see several big trades. Nothing, though.

Something has got to give.. too many teams with little (or no) cap.


I wonder if the bad teams with cap space are just tired of helping the teams fit players under the cap. If you look at the teams with $10M or more in cap space, they all have important RFAs to sign, other than Ottawa and Columbus which will both likely be awful.

It looks like the NHL has run out of cap space as a whole and teams will have to be incredibly creative to have full rosters with no unsigned players.

23 players X 31 teams only has a finite amount of money to spend and it seems like there just isn't enough money to go around right now.
Daniel
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,608
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Dallas

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:37 am

Daniel wrote:
100565 wrote:
KG wrote: with minimal action! :)


Before the offseason started, it seemed as though the league would see several big trades. Nothing, though.

Something has got to give.. too many teams with little (or no) cap.


I wonder if the bad teams with cap space are just tired of helping the teams fit players under the cap. If you look at the teams with $10M or more in cap space, they all have important RFAs to sign, other than Ottawa and Columbus which will both likely be awful.

It looks like the NHL has run out of cap space as a whole and teams will have to be incredibly creative to have full rosters with no unsigned players.

23 players X 31 teams only has a finite amount of money to spend and it seems like there just isn't enough money to go around right now.

Ding, ding, ding, ding!!! This is what happens when bad GMs give it out 6 years and 3.5M AAV to 4th line players. It's not only a bad signing by X team, but it sets a market price for anyone else out there in a similar position needing a new deal.

There are plenty of bad deals going around lately....the biggest trend is wanting to give 3rd line players 3.5-4.5M on contracts.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Daniel on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:44 am

FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


I fail to see how adding $5.4M for 3 years when Schultz' $5.5M will be off the books after this year helps the cap long term. If he turns out good, it might be worth it but almost $13M for Gudbranson, Johnson, Ristolainen is a pretty good waste of cap space. Not to mention getting rid of a 2nd round pick in the deal for a defensemen they don't need.

If the team can get rid of Johnson and Hornqvist it might be a good trade but adding in more unnecessary players when the team can't even sign it's own isn't good asset management. Maybe it helps sign Pettersson but what about next season? I get that they are in win now mode, but at least plan for the next 2-3 years. The team has way too many free agents next year to be giving up 2020-21 cap space like this. Especially for a player who has performed as badly as Ristolainen has.
Daniel
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,608
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Dallas

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Daniel on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:55 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
100565 wrote:
KG wrote: with minimal action! :)


Before the offseason started, it seemed as though the league would see several big trades. Nothing, though.

Something has got to give.. too many teams with little (or no) cap.


I wonder if the bad teams with cap space are just tired of helping the teams fit players under the cap. If you look at the teams with $10M or more in cap space, they all have important RFAs to sign, other than Ottawa and Columbus which will both likely be awful.

It looks like the NHL has run out of cap space as a whole and teams will have to be incredibly creative to have full rosters with no unsigned players.

23 players X 31 teams only has a finite amount of money to spend and it seems like there just isn't enough money to go around right now.

Ding, ding, ding, ding!!! This is what happens when bad GMs give it out 6 years and 3.5M AAV to 4th line players. It's not only a bad signing by X team, but it sets a market price for anyone else out there in a similar position needing a new deal.

There are plenty of bad deals going around lately....the biggest trend is wanting to give 3rd line players 3.5-4.5M on contracts.


If you look at the cap space left for all teams, it's an average of about $6M per team. That's awfully close to 100% capacity league wide. There are about what 10-12 RFAs that ought to get $7-8M per person give or take?

The salaries aren't matching the revenue growth and that isn't going to end well.
Daniel
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,608
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Dallas

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:58 am

Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


I fail to see how adding $5.4M for 3 years when Schultz' $5.5M will be off the books after this year helps the cap long term. If he turns out good, it might be worth it but almost $13M for Gudbranson, Johnson, Ristolainen is a pretty good waste of cap space. Not to mention getting rid of a 2nd round pick in the deal for a defensemen they don't need.

If the team can get rid of Johnson and Hornqvist it might be a good trade but adding in more unnecessary players when the team can't even sign it's own isn't good asset management. Maybe it helps sign Pettersson but what about next season? I get that they are in win now mode, but at least plan for the next 2-3 years. The team has way too many free agents next year to be giving up 2020-21 cap space like this. Especially for a player who has performed as badly as Ristolainen has.

If the Penguins resign Schultz, what number are you expecting him to sign for? Zero chance it starts with a 5. It's more likely to be in the 6.5-7M range, based on what the market is overpaying defenseman these days. If you are letting Schultz walk, who are you replacing him with? There is nobody in the organization that can do it. It's going to come from UFA or trade. If you go the UFA route, you can bet any 2nd pairing UFA you are signing costs more than 5.5M

By trading for Ristolainen, you are getting 2 more years of cap certainty. You replace the 5.5M Schultz, with 2 more years of 5.4M Ristolainen. I'm not sure how you can't see that as a huge win for this team, because almost any other alternative has them spending MORE than 5.5M, by a good amount.

As I was looking at some Sabres specific articles on the Athletic, I found that the Sabres main beat writer John Vogl pretty much just spelled out everything I did above in my original post about Ristolainen. This Q&A session came from Sabres Q&A

Smith: So, John, if Ristolainen is indeed a top-four caliber guy, why is his name consistently in trade rumors? Is he the odd man out now?

Vogl: Hello, Joe. Risto is certainly a top-four guy. The problem is he’s not a No. 1 defenseman, and that’s the role he’s been forced into on bad teams in Buffalo for the past six seasons. His stats and perception have taken a beating as he digs puck after puck out of his net. In case 2,000 people haven’t mentioned it yet, his plus/minus since 2013 is an NHL-worst minus-143; the second worst (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) is just minus-97.

But when you average 24 minutes a night on a team that habitually finishes last, that’s going to happen. And as bad as that plus/minus sounds, Ristolainen has legitimate skills. Since he became a full-time NHLer in 2014, he’s 19th among all defensemen in assists (156), 24th in points (190) and 44th in goals (34). So while he has been miscast as a top defenseman, there’s no doubt he is better than most.

======================================
Trading for Risto solves the 2nd pairing RD moving forward. And actually reading into it more, it would likely cost something better than Rust. The Sabres need scoring, or a 2C/3C. The Sabres might have more interest in Bjugstad in a trade. I'd be hesitant to do that until a better 3C option was available to Pittsburgh.

You aren't incorrect about Gudbranson and Johnson, and I add Hornqvist to that mix. Those are things GMJR will need to take care of as well. But, getting a 25 year old defenseman with good high end skills who is being misused by his current team is something I strongly advocate and would like to see happen.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Daniel on Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:05 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


I fail to see how adding $5.4M for 3 years when Schultz' $5.5M will be off the books after this year helps the cap long term. If he turns out good, it might be worth it but almost $13M for Gudbranson, Johnson, Ristolainen is a pretty good waste of cap space. Not to mention getting rid of a 2nd round pick in the deal for a defensemen they don't need.

If the team can get rid of Johnson and Hornqvist it might be a good trade but adding in more unnecessary players when the team can't even sign it's own isn't good asset management. Maybe it helps sign Pettersson but what about next season? I get that they are in win now mode, but at least plan for the next 2-3 years. The team has way too many free agents next year to be giving up 2020-21 cap space like this. Especially for a player who has performed as badly as Ristolainen has.

If the Penguins resign Schultz, what number are you expecting him to sign for? Zero chance it starts with a 5. It's more likely to be in the 6.5-7M range, based on what the market is overpaying defenseman these days. If you are letting Schultz walk, who are you replacing him with? There is nobody in the organization that can do it. It's going to come from UFA or trade. If you go the UFA route, you can bet any 2nd pairing UFA you are signing costs more than 5.5M

By trading for Ristolainen, you are getting 2 more years of cap certainty. You replace the 5.5M Schultz, with 2 more years of 5.4M Ristolainen. I'm not sure how you can't see that as a huge win for this team, because almost any other alternative has them spending MORE than 5.5M, by a good amount.

As I was looking at some Sabres specific articles on the Athletic, I found that the Sabres main beat writer John Vogl pretty much just spelled out everything I did above in my original post about Ristolainen. This Q&A session came from Sabres Q&A

Smith: So, John, if Ristolainen is indeed a top-four caliber guy, why is his name consistently in trade rumors? Is he the odd man out now?

Vogl: Hello, Joe. Risto is certainly a top-four guy. The problem is he’s not a No. 1 defenseman, and that’s the role he’s been forced into on bad teams in Buffalo for the past six seasons. His stats and perception have taken a beating as he digs puck after puck out of his net. In case 2,000 people haven’t mentioned it yet, his plus/minus since 2013 is an NHL-worst minus-143; the second worst (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) is just minus-97.

But when you average 24 minutes a night on a team that habitually finishes last, that’s going to happen. And as bad as that plus/minus sounds, Ristolainen has legitimate skills. Since he became a full-time NHLer in 2014, he’s 19th among all defensemen in assists (156), 24th in points (190) and 44th in goals (34). So while he has been miscast as a top defenseman, there’s no doubt he is better than most.

======================================
Trading for Risto solves the 2nd pairing RD moving forward. And actually reading into it more, it would likely cost something better than Rust. The Sabres need scoring, or a 2C/3C. The Sabres might have more interest in Bjugstad in a trade. I'd be hesitant to do that until a better 3C option was available to Pittsburgh.

You aren't incorrect about Gudbranson and Johnson, and I add Hornqvist to that mix. Those are things GMJR will need to take care of as well. But, getting a 25 year old defenseman with good high end skills who is being misused by his current team is something I strongly advocate and would like to see happen.


Because of the Pens cap space, they almost have to replace Schultz with an ELC player. Because of Johnson and Gudbranson there are no good options.

Trading for Risto does solve the 2nd pairing, I won't disagree, but at what expense? If they lose one of Murray or McCann, or can't sign them, is it still worth trading for him? Right now they can't even sign all of their players, something has to give. We have an NHL that is less inclined to take bad contracts to help GMs sign their players.

The issue isn't Risto at all, it's the fact that he's unnecessary and will create more cap problems next season. While he'd be an improvement over Johnson and Gudbranson, he's not replacing them.
Daniel
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,608
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Dallas

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby FLPensFan on Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:28 pm

Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:My bad trade / reclamation project trade idea (Which I probably have mentioned before) that won't go away for me:

Some form of Schultz plus being sent out, and Rasmus Ristolainen coming to the Penguins. This would likely have to be a 3 team deal, because neither Pittsburgh nor Buffalo have any available cap space.

I continue to be intrigued by Ristolainen, and I am starting to do some research on him to see how "bad" he is, because, everyone thinks he is bad. So why would I want to acquire a "bad" defenseman, when Jack Johnson is already king of the hill here?
---Ristolainen is only 24 (he'll be 25 in late October)
---Ristolainen has this year, plus 2 more years at 5.4M
---Ristolainen has good size (6'4"), skates well, has a good shot, and can play a physical game (ask Guentzel)
---Ristolainen has played for 6 seasons, scoring over 40 points each of the last 3 years.

Here are the current negatives to acquiring him:
---In 6 seasons, he is a -143. He has never had a positive season +/- season. His best was a -9.
---Ristolainen has been lambasted lately for his defensive play, and it is well known Buffalo is looking to move him. Word out of Finland this weekend is he may have actually asked for a trade recently. Bufflo has an overload of defenseman, and can easily dress Montour, Miller, Bogosian, and Jokiharju on RD (with Dahlin, Scandella, McCabe down the LD).
---He get's a lot of PP assists. He's had 17-25 PP assists the past 3 seasons, meaning, almost 50% of his points are coming on the PP. He hasn't been scoring on the PP (only 1 PP goal each of the last 3 years).

Now, I need to look at some more film, read some more articles, and review some more stats, but, here is my early reason why I think the "bad" player rap may be unwarranted, and he'd be a good risk to acquire:
---He plays for Buffalo. In his 6 years with Buffalo, the team has been -47, -80, -32, -16, -116 and -93 in goal differential. With the exception of the year they were -16 goal differential, they have been in the bottom 5-10 teams for goals against each of those years.
---Further to that point, Bogosian and McCabe are the most seasoned defenseman for Buffalo, after Ristolainen. Both of those players are also career negative +/- players. Neither has ever finished a season in Buffalo as a positve player.
---This may be the biggest one for me.....He was drafted 8th overall in 2013, with Seth Jones (better player) and Darnell Nurse (worse player, IMO) taken ahead of him. The expectation was he would be a #1 defenseman. He's been a 24-26 minute average TOI player in Buffalo, and I just don't think he can handle those minutes over an 82 game schedule. I think Ristolainen is a solid #2/#3 defenseman. I think if you drop his minutes down to 20-22 minutes a night, as well as put him on a much better team like Pittsburgh, he will be a much better player.

With Trouba gone to the Rangers, I think Ristolainen may be the best available defenseman (and I say available because of the trade rumors and possible trade request). I think if the Penguins were able to replace Schultz with Ristolainen, basically for the same price for the next two years, it's a win on the cap for sure. That would give the team enough time to evaluate and coach up Risto, and determine if he is worth resigning down the road. I think Ristolainen has the ability to take some minutes off Letang, whether due to injury or just rest.....but not for a full season. But, who knows, maybe on a better team that actually scores goals and has better goaltending, maybe Ristolainen can be a #1.

Anyways, doubtful it would happen, but I wonder if something like this could work:

PIT: Ristolainen, B/C prospect (ANA)
BUF: Rust, 2nd ANA, 2nd PIT
ANA: Schultz

Anaheim has Josh Manson at RD, then Korbinian Holzer. Schultz is a sure upgrade over Holzer. Ducks have the cap space to do take on Schultz. Penguins essentially get a 2nd and a prospect for Schultz, and then flip PIT 2nd, ANA 2nd, and Rust to Buffalo for Ristolainen.

This would clear the necessary cap space, to sign Pettersson, replace Schultz for 100K less, with 2 additional years at that price. You then have a young d-core of Ristolainen (25), Pettersson (23), with Addison (19), Joseph (20), and Marino (22) in the hole waiting for their shot.


I fail to see how adding $5.4M for 3 years when Schultz' $5.5M will be off the books after this year helps the cap long term. If he turns out good, it might be worth it but almost $13M for Gudbranson, Johnson, Ristolainen is a pretty good waste of cap space. Not to mention getting rid of a 2nd round pick in the deal for a defensemen they don't need.

If the team can get rid of Johnson and Hornqvist it might be a good trade but adding in more unnecessary players when the team can't even sign it's own isn't good asset management. Maybe it helps sign Pettersson but what about next season? I get that they are in win now mode, but at least plan for the next 2-3 years. The team has way too many free agents next year to be giving up 2020-21 cap space like this. Especially for a player who has performed as badly as Ristolainen has.

If the Penguins resign Schultz, what number are you expecting him to sign for? Zero chance it starts with a 5. It's more likely to be in the 6.5-7M range, based on what the market is overpaying defenseman these days. If you are letting Schultz walk, who are you replacing him with? There is nobody in the organization that can do it. It's going to come from UFA or trade. If you go the UFA route, you can bet any 2nd pairing UFA you are signing costs more than 5.5M

By trading for Ristolainen, you are getting 2 more years of cap certainty. You replace the 5.5M Schultz, with 2 more years of 5.4M Ristolainen. I'm not sure how you can't see that as a huge win for this team, because almost any other alternative has them spending MORE than 5.5M, by a good amount.

As I was looking at some Sabres specific articles on the Athletic, I found that the Sabres main beat writer John Vogl pretty much just spelled out everything I did above in my original post about Ristolainen. This Q&A session came from Sabres Q&A

Smith: So, John, if Ristolainen is indeed a top-four caliber guy, why is his name consistently in trade rumors? Is he the odd man out now?

Vogl: Hello, Joe. Risto is certainly a top-four guy. The problem is he’s not a No. 1 defenseman, and that’s the role he’s been forced into on bad teams in Buffalo for the past six seasons. His stats and perception have taken a beating as he digs puck after puck out of his net. In case 2,000 people haven’t mentioned it yet, his plus/minus since 2013 is an NHL-worst minus-143; the second worst (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) is just minus-97.

But when you average 24 minutes a night on a team that habitually finishes last, that’s going to happen. And as bad as that plus/minus sounds, Ristolainen has legitimate skills. Since he became a full-time NHLer in 2014, he’s 19th among all defensemen in assists (156), 24th in points (190) and 44th in goals (34). So while he has been miscast as a top defenseman, there’s no doubt he is better than most.

======================================
Trading for Risto solves the 2nd pairing RD moving forward. And actually reading into it more, it would likely cost something better than Rust. The Sabres need scoring, or a 2C/3C. The Sabres might have more interest in Bjugstad in a trade. I'd be hesitant to do that until a better 3C option was available to Pittsburgh.

You aren't incorrect about Gudbranson and Johnson, and I add Hornqvist to that mix. Those are things GMJR will need to take care of as well. But, getting a 25 year old defenseman with good high end skills who is being misused by his current team is something I strongly advocate and would like to see happen.


Because of the Pens cap space, they almost have to replace Schultz with an ELC player. Because of Johnson and Gudbranson there are no good options.

Trading for Risto does solve the 2nd pairing, I won't disagree, but at what expense? If they lose one of Murray or McCann, or can't sign them, is it still worth trading for him? Right now they can't even sign all of their players, something has to give. We have an NHL that is less inclined to take bad contracts to help GMs sign their players.

The issue isn't Risto at all, it's the fact that he's unnecessary and will create more cap problems next season. While he'd be an improvement over Johnson and Gudbranson, he's not replacing them.

(Just a warning that if my tone sounds hostile at all, it is not meant to be. Enjoying the discussion)....

I disagree. The Penguins need cheap, ELC type level players for the bottom pair....not the 2nd pair. To acquire somebody else's ELC level 2nd pairing RD, you can almost assuredly be expected to be giving up 1 of our top 3 prospects, and/or a 1st round pick in the process. I don't know of any other way to get one. Addison is the closest thing we have, and unfortunately, I don't see him being ready next year because he is stuck in Juniors again this season. If he was playing in the AHL this year, maybe he could make the jump....but I'd still rather see him start as a 3RD and prove he can handle top 4....unless all the smart people who assess talent unanimously think he can jump right to 2nd pair in the NHL.

Gudbranson, honestly, I don't think would be very hard to move. If he plays like he did for the Penguins, moving him at the trade deadline, with another year of term left, shouldn't be that hard.
FLPensFan
NHL Healthy Scratch
NHL Healthy Scratch
 
Posts: 13,642
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2006 1:30 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Daniel on Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:37 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
Daniel wrote:Because of the Pens cap space, they almost have to replace Schultz with an ELC player. Because of Johnson and Gudbranson there are no good options.

Trading for Risto does solve the 2nd pairing, I won't disagree, but at what expense? If they lose one of Murray or McCann, or can't sign them, is it still worth trading for him? Right now they can't even sign all of their players, something has to give. We have an NHL that is less inclined to take bad contracts to help GMs sign their players.

The issue isn't Risto at all, it's the fact that he's unnecessary and will create more cap problems next season. While he'd be an improvement over Johnson and Gudbranson, he's not replacing them.

(Just a warning that if my tone sounds hostile at all, it is not meant to be. Enjoying the discussion)....

I disagree. The Penguins need cheap, ELC type level players for the bottom pair....not the 2nd pair. To acquire somebody else's ELC level 2nd pairing RD, you can almost assuredly be expected to be giving up 1 of our top 3 prospects, and/or a 1st round pick in the process. I don't know of any other way to get one. Addison is the closest thing we have, and unfortunately, I don't see him being ready next year because he is stuck in Juniors again this season. If he was playing in the AHL this year, maybe he could make the jump....but I'd still rather see him start as a 3RD and prove he can handle top 4....unless all the smart people who assess talent unanimously think he can jump right to 2nd pair in the NHL.

Gudbranson, honestly, I don't think would be very hard to move. If he plays like he did for the Penguins, moving him at the trade deadline, with another year of term left, shouldn't be that hard.


Right, bottom pair should be ELC, but right now it's $7M of cap space on the bottom pair. That affects everything the Penguins do.

The Pens might be able to trade Gudbranson, they might not be able to trade him and I would rather not gamble the ability to clear space because I think the players the Pens need to get rid of aren't in high demand. I know you mentioned Rust in your trade scenario and that might help, but I think the Pens are in the same situation next year as this year.

Between just McCann and Murray, I think the Pens will need at least $5-$6M in cap space. The hit for Schultz will help for most of that if he's replaced with an ELC. If he's replaced with $5.4M in space it means the Penguins have to trade someone else. Granted next year at this JR will be looking to trade Tanev, but I digress.

Sorry, but I don't have confidence that JR can trade Johnson of Gudbranson or any of the other overpaid players to get enough space to sign McCann and Murray after this season. If they can trade one of Johnson or Gudbranson then your trade has a lot of appeal. Still don't like giving up a 2nd, but in the end it doesn't matter.

Just to add, I think we're talking about the same thing. You just have more confidence that JR can clear cap space than I do. I think JR ought to wait until the overall NHL trade climate changes. I don't think their is enough cap space overall to make many trades and the Pens might be more stuck than they already are. Seriously, look at the capfriendly site, there isn't that much cap space for the entire league and most teams are in cap trouble, even those with over $10M in cap space.
Daniel
AHL All-Star
AHL All-Star
 
Posts: 5,608
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:10 pm
Location: Dallas

Re: 2019 LGP Summer Armchair GM Thread

Postby Jim on Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:25 pm

Daniel wrote:Because of the Pens cap space, they almost have to replace Schultz with an ELC player. Because of Johnson and Gudbranson there are no good options.

Trading for Risto does solve the 2nd pairing, I won't disagree, but at what expense? If they lose one of Murray or McCann, or can't sign them, is it still worth trading for him? Right now they can't even sign all of their players, something has to give. We have an NHL that is less inclined to take bad contracts to help GMs sign their players.

The issue isn't Risto at all, it's the fact that he's unnecessary and will create more cap problems next season. While he'd be an improvement over Johnson and Gudbranson, he's not replacing them.


You can't say that Rutherford is a senile old fool for bringing in Ristolainen, and that he needs to be fired for it... if he doesn't bring in Ristolainen. As a fan you gotta play the long game.

If all that I am getting is a meh-prospect and a bad D with term, then someone is taking my bad D with term too, not just 3 actual valuable pieces (Schultz, Rust and a 2nd). I mean, the meh prospect = the 2nd. So you are giving Schultz and Rust for their Johnson. :?: Schultz, Rust, Johnson and a 2nd for Ristolainen and a meh-prospect had potential. Without Johnson, nope.
Jim
NHL Fourth Liner
NHL Fourth Liner
 
Posts: 18,170
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 10:18 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

PreviousNext

Return to Pittsburgh Penguins

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests


e-mail