A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Cow_Master66 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:17 pm

Hatrick wrote:
Cow_Master66 wrote:And to think some wanted to keep Oleksiak in the press box @ 2M

great job misrepresenting arguments



That was the argument. Keeping the contract vs opening up the space.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:39 am

With acquisition of Gudbranson, thought it would be a good time to take a look ahead again at next year's cap situation for the Penguins.

Penguins have 17 players committed to next season, for a total cap hit of 79.083M. Those players are:

FWDS(9, 45.900M): Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel, Bjugstad, Rust, McCann, Simon
DMEN(6, 28.183M): Letang, Schultz, Dumoulin, Maatta, Gudbranson, Johnson
GOAL:(2, 5.000M): Murray, DeSmith

Penguins have 4 UFAs in Ruhwedel, Trotman, Wilson, and Cullen
Penguins have 4 RFAs in Aston-Reese, Blueger, Riikola, and Pettersson
Penguins have 2 AHL RFAs that could be in line for NHL work: Adam Johnson and Joseph Blandisi
Penguins have 2 AHL players who are Group 6 UFAs (25 or older with 3 professional seasons, and less than 80 NHL games played): Ethan Prow and Thomas DiPauli
Penguins have 4 AHL UFAs who could be under consideration to be resigned: Wideman, Summers, Muse, and Czuczman
Penguins have 2 AHL UFAs who I don't expect to be resigned: Ben Sexton and Jimmy Hayes

If the cap hits 83M as expected, Penguins have 3.917M to sign 3 players to get to minimum of 12F, 6D, 2G, or 3.917M for 6 players for full 23 man roster.

I'm not going to speculate on trades, but I'd expect all 4 RFAs at the NHL level to be resigned. If I had to put a best guess and explanation on each:
--ZAR, 1 year, 1M AAV 1-way deal - (Needs to stay healthy to earn a bigger contract)
--Blueger, 1 year, 750K AAV 1-way deal - (First non-ELC contract; drops 2-way designation; little playing time this year to force higher salary)
--Pettersson, 2 year, 1.25M AAV 1-way deal - (First non-ELC contract; drops 2-way designation; will be 23 when resigning, not impactful enough yet to force higher salary)
--Riikola, 2 year, 1M AAV 1-way deal - (Not a regular at this point; needs to continue to develop)

Those are conservative estimates. I could see longer, higher deals for ZAR and Pettersson, but shorter term, nothing really wrong with either of their deals with their league status and production to date. Blueger and Riikola should be fairly simple, as they have little negotiating leverage. Riikola could actually come in lower, but, he could always decide to go back to Europe, so he has a bit more than Blueger.

That's 4 players, 4M in salary added, so Penguins would be 83K over the cap. Let's assume for a minute GMJR can shave 100K from somewhere in those 4 contracts, which he could. That puts you at 11 Forwards, 8 defense, 2 goalies. Still need another forward to be signed.

I'm guessing Wilson will be resigned for a small amount. He makes 650K today, they may give him 800K next season, maybe still a 2-way deal even though he has no waivers. 750K is league minimum next season. So you are still looking at 750-900K over the cap, with ZERO space for callups. You have no ability to even have a 23 man roster with this configuration, and no space to callup a player if someone gets day-to-day injury or sick.

OK, I lied. I'm going to speculate on two potential trade possibilities: Maatta and Kessel
--If you move Maatta, you go down to 7 defenseman on the roster, you open up 4M in cap space, 1M-1.5M of which is taken up by the RFAs you resigned and cap space for another player callup. That leaves you 2.5-3M in player salary you can acquire in return (in addition to or in lieu of picks/prospects).
--If you move Kessel, you go down to 11 forwards, and open up 6.8M in cap space, 1M-1.5M used for the RFAs/Wilson resign, and cap space for another callup. That leaves 5.3-5.8M in cap space to acquire another player in return for Kessel.

Both deals have merit to them. Kessel opens up more space. Maatta alleviates a crowded, expensive blue line. It will be an interesting draft and summer for GMJR. There is no way getting around moving a player of significant salary this offseason.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Jim on Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:59 am

Package Gudbranson and Maatta for picks or "prospects", nothing that really adds to the cap.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Pensfan4life8771 on Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:39 am

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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Pens4Life on Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:46 am

We have way too expensive defensive corps,one of the Maatta, JJ, Gudbranson will have to go,100%
Keep Pettersson and Riikola,cheap solid bottom pair defensmans..
Letang, Schultz, Dumoulin, Riikola, Pettersson, plus 2 that stays from above mentioned.. heck I would even re-sign Ruhwedel.

Among forwards ,I think either Kessel or Bjugstad goes.. I expect ZAR and Blueger to be re-signed.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Jim on Tue Mar 05, 2019 11:57 am

Whenever people talk about trading Kessel, there should be an electronic hand tat can slap them across the face.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Hatrick on Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:47 pm

As I said the other day in a different thread. They will probably have to move either Schultz or Maatta because those are the only two they could move that open up cap space while getting a return. With the preference probably being Maatta just because of how important Schultz is. They aren't moving dumo or letang. probably cant get much for Johnson or Gudbranson(although both have been decent the several games we have seen). Rikkola and Pettersson should not have much of a cap hit(maybe 2.5 combined) so trading them doesn't open much space.
That leaves either trading Maatta or Schultz in the summer. Both players would be cap relief and are solid second pairing guys so could net a better return. If they don't move anyone they have 30mil for 8 defense.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Defence21 on Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:47 pm

Pensfan4life8771 wrote:https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1071839

Ferland isn't taking $2 million. He's at $1.75 million now, and is having a very good year coming off of a trade deadline where he was highly coveted. There are talks of him asking for $5 million. He might not get that (though I wouldn't be surprised), but he's not falling to $2 million, either.

Why add another defenseman?
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby FLPensFan on Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:08 pm

If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby brwi on Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:14 pm

FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


In a second I'd do it. I don't see any way that Maatta and Hornqvist get close to that return.

If Ferland will go for 4-4.5mil, welcome aboard!
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Daniel on Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:34 pm

brwi wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


In a second I'd do it. I don't see any way that Maatta and Hornqvist get close to that return.

If Ferland will go for 4-4.5mil, welcome aboard!


Buffalo might be an intriguing team for a discussion like that. Maybe a 1st/3rd/Girgensons/cheap add on

IF, the Pens can sign Ferland.

They have more than enough space to sign Skinner and add Hornqvist/Maatta to their roster. Not sure where Girgensons would fit, but he's an RFA who has underwhelmed, so would probably be cheap. Buffalo gets a steady defensemen and a playoff warrior/leader. The Pens get cap space and a mid 1st round pick.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Hatrick on Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:39 pm

brwi wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


In a second I'd do it. I don't see any way that Maatta and Hornqvist get close to that return.

If Ferland will go for 4-4.5mil, welcome aboard!

I could definitely see them getting at least close to that return(at least separately). Maatta could get maybe a 2nd or 3rd plus a semi-decent but not great prospect or roster player. And Hornqvist could definitely get a 1st+ a bit more. If Ferland would be at 4 I think that would be a reasonable price to get him at even though some of his injuries worry me even more than with hornqvist. But for 4m I think the risk/reward would be worth it depending on length of deal.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Pitts on Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:03 pm

Jim wrote:Whenever people talk about trading Kessel, there should be an electronic hand tat can slap them across the face.

It's not a far off discussion. Kessel still has decent value. He will alleviate the cap nicely. He also does wear out his welcome with the coaches wherever he goes. As one reporter put it, he has about a 3-4 year shelf life per team. I love Kessel in PGH as much as you. But, eventually he's gonna have to go.

Another possibility, although I think his cap hit sucks now and will be a deterrent, is Hornqvist. But, his current level of play is also a concern.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Pens4Life on Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:32 am

Jim wrote:Whenever people talk about trading Kessel, there should be an electronic hand tat can slap them across the face.


To be clear on that, I would love to keep Kessel - but the cap will be an issue.. and teams might not want Maatta or JJ or Eric, Bjugstad among forwards.. maybe the Phil will be the odd man out,sadly.. GMJR made some solid moves,but now we really have too expensive D lineup.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby pekkasteele on Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:54 am

I would not trade Hörnkvist, he is to important to us. We saw it during the cups, and in the beginning of the season, first how lacklustre the team was when he was injured, and then how they improved when he got back. Sure, he has been playing porly now, but I think that will pass, and be the player he has been up until this slump.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby longtimefan on Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:15 am

FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


My answer is no. Mainly because I just don't see Ferland in the same light as some others. He's going to be overpaid this summer. My money is on the Canes re-signing him. He's nowhere near the player Hornqvist is. He ranks 10th on the team among forwards in ice time, and only gets a little over 12 minutes at even strength. He does a lot of his scoring on the PP. I've also never seen anything that suggests he's strong in his own end, while I know Horny is decent. So I don't see him as a defensive upgrade. He's a lot younger, but has an injury history that gives pause. Especially with the recent back issues. (Mario taught us all about back problems).

Hornqvist is having a really tough year. Yet he's produced 16G and 30pts in 53 games. Ferland is having a banner season, but has 17G and 35 pts in 57 games. Trading Maata or a defenseman is likely. And how the season ends will dictate other moves this summer. I also don't see Hornqvist bringing full value because of the 4 years remaining on his contract. Definitely not coming off a tough season.

I love a good pugilist. I always have and always will. It's been part of the game since the beginning. But I also understand it's not a trait you overpay for. Too much of Ferland is based on his willingness and prowess in dropping the gloves. But he hasn't proven to be anywhere near the player Horny has been.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby FLPensFan on Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:51 am

longtimefan wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


My answer is no. Mainly because I just don't see Ferland in the same light as some others. He's going to be overpaid this summer. My money is on the Canes re-signing him. He's nowhere near the player Hornqvist is. He ranks 10th on the team among forwards in ice time, and only gets a little over 12 minutes at even strength. He does a lot of his scoring on the PP. I've also never seen anything that suggests he's strong in his own end, while I know Horny is decent. So I don't see him as a defensive upgrade. He's a lot younger, but has an injury history that gives pause. Especially with the recent back issues. (Mario taught us all about back problems).

Hornqvist is having a really tough year. Yet he's produced 16G and 30pts in 53 games. Ferland is having a banner season, but has 17G and 35 pts in 57 games. Trading Maata or a defenseman is likely. And how the season ends will dictate other moves this summer. I also don't see Hornqvist bringing full value because of the 4 years remaining on his contract. Definitely not coming off a tough season.

I love a good pugilist. I always have and always will. It's been part of the game since the beginning. But I also understand it's not a trait you overpay for. Too much of Ferland is based on his willingness and prowess in dropping the gloves. But he hasn't proven to be anywhere near the player Horny has been.

I can't argue with that, and I do agree that Ferland likely gets overpaid AND has a hard time matching this season's production again.

I like both Phil and Hornqvist, but I've said before, you already have your two best players in their 30's, with no real replacement in your system available. I don't like having arguably your 3rd and 4th best forwards ALSO being in their 30's. Sooner or later, these guys are going to decline. If the Penguins are left holding the bag on both Phil and Hornqvist when that decline hits, they'll be stuck with them with little to no return. That will be a killer to this team moving forward.

This summer is going to be very interesting. The Penguins are likely to continue going through a retool on the fly. Rutherford has brought in 4 new defensemen this season (Johnson, Riikola, Pettersson, Riikola), and 4 new forwards (Bjugstad, McCann, Blueger, Wilson). 8 players that never played a game for the Penguins on the roster this season. I think that continues with another 2-3 guys out, and some other guys in. This will be a retool/reshape of the team, and, I really hope Rutherford gets it right.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby brwi on Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:09 am

longtimefan wrote:
My answer is no. Mainly because I just don't see Ferland in the same light as some others. He's going to be overpaid this summer. My money is on the Canes re-signing him. He's nowhere near the player Hornqvist is. He ranks 10th on the team among forwards in ice time, and only gets a little over 12 minutes at even strength. He does a lot of his scoring on the PP. I've also never seen anything that suggests he's strong in his own end, while I know Horny is decent. So I don't see him as a defensive upgrade. He's a lot younger, but has an injury history that gives pause. Especially with the recent back issues. (Mario taught us all about back problems).

I don't necessarily see acquiring Ferland as being a replacement for Hornvist, though that was sort of the scenario FLP laid out, I just see him as an addition. If it came down to choosing one over the other, it gets murky. I've been watching a lot of Canes games this season and Ferland is a guy who some nights you won't even notice as having played. While he is getting compared to a Tom Wilson because he can definitely fight and has some talent, he doesn't have Wilson's compete level. He's generally a 3rd liner in Carolina, which is a team that really lacks offensive firepower.

As far as him scoring a lot on the PP, less than a third of his points come from the PP while Hornqvist is about the same over his career except for last year(higher) and this season(lower along with overall production). Ferland gets more goals 5v5 by percent than Hornqvist. Hornqvist trade vale is not going to be high unless he really has a strong finish this year and you still have the contract that is pretty rough. He probably has more value to the Pens than what could be gained in return because I don't see a 1st for him unless it's one of the last few picks of the first round. Don't see anything else coming back for him that you would care about.

Big thing is he's only 26 while Hornqvist is 32 with a lot of mileage and concussion history. Ferland's injury history is a real concern, especially when you add in the alcoholism history. Signing Ferland is risky, whether as an addition or replacement. 4mil/yr is probably right for him and I also feel like Canes will definitely try and re-up him, but if it gets to 5mil they walk. Ferland and agent know that his future career and growth is not a sure thing and this contract could be it, so they'll probably go for the biggest $$$ from whoever will pay. Someone may overpay on salary/term and he end up out of Carolina. Owner Dundon and Waddell already personally met with him this season trying to get him re-upped and couldn't come to an agreement. Looks like he's going to test the market and he probably should.

Ferland did make news last night when he laid out B's Johansson with a massive hit (clean) and then took care of Backes in a fight after that hit.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Jim on Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:19 pm

The trades that will happen this summer will be for picks/prospects coming back. Nothing that increases cap. They are not going to move out a $5M guy for a $3M guy to come back. It is also much more likely that D will get moved out over F simply because of the roster situation (8 NHL D)

Hornqvist just negotiated for the NTC. He is not going to waive it year 1. He is not getting traded this summer.
Kessel costs this team $6.8M cap hit, for a point a game. A goal drought (not a point drought) is not going to make the team want to move him. Someone would have to offer to GROSSLY overpay for him in terms of picks/prospects for the Pens to move him.
Bjugstad has no ties to the team. He could get moved.
No other F has a cap hit that is high enough to help the team by being moved.

Schultz has become too important to the team to move for cap reasons.
Gudbranson is probably the #1 chance of being the guy moved.
Johnson will only be moved if he askes for a trade.
Maatta seems to be the guy on the bubble.

Likelihood of being delt this summer:
1. Gudbranson
(short drop)
2a. Maatta
2b. Bjugstad
(long drop)
3. Johnson
(extremely long drop)
4. Murray
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby thehockeyguru on Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:13 pm

FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:If you could move Maatta and Hornqvist for a 1st, a 2nd, a young roster player, and a A/B level prospect (not saying it is one deal, but the end return for both), then sign Ferland for 4 years, 4-4.5M AAV, would you do it? That would likely give you enough space for the RFAs/UFAs, plus player recalls, and add a comparable piece in Ferland. Another physical player, but who while not as good in front of the net, is likely better defensively and in the pugilistic arts.


My answer is no. Mainly because I just don't see Ferland in the same light as some others. He's going to be overpaid this summer. My money is on the Canes re-signing him. He's nowhere near the player Hornqvist is. He ranks 10th on the team among forwards in ice time, and only gets a little over 12 minutes at even strength. He does a lot of his scoring on the PP. I've also never seen anything that suggests he's strong in his own end, while I know Horny is decent. So I don't see him as a defensive upgrade. He's a lot younger, but has an injury history that gives pause. Especially with the recent back issues. (Mario taught us all about back problems).

Hornqvist is having a really tough year. Yet he's produced 16G and 30pts in 53 games. Ferland is having a banner season, but has 17G and 35 pts in 57 games. Trading Maata or a defenseman is likely. And how the season ends will dictate other moves this summer. I also don't see Hornqvist bringing full value because of the 4 years remaining on his contract. Definitely not coming off a tough season.

I love a good pugilist. I always have and always will. It's been part of the game since the beginning. But I also understand it's not a trait you overpay for. Too much of Ferland is based on his willingness and prowess in dropping the gloves. But he hasn't proven to be anywhere near the player Horny has been.

I can't argue with that, and I do agree that Ferland likely gets overpaid AND has a hard time matching this season's production again.

I like both Phil and Hornqvist, but I've said before, you already have your two best players in their 30's, with no real replacement in your system available. I don't like having arguably your 3rd and 4th best forwards ALSO being in their 30's. Sooner or later, these guys are going to decline. If the Penguins are left holding the bag on both Phil and Hornqvist when that decline hits, they'll be stuck with them with little to no return. That will be a killer to this team moving forward.

This summer is going to be very interesting. The Penguins are likely to continue going through a retool on the fly. Rutherford has brought in 4 new defensemen this season (Johnson, Riikola, Pettersson, Riikola), and 4 new forwards (Bjugstad, McCann, Blueger, Wilson). 8 players that never played a game for the Penguins on the roster this season. I think that continues with another 2-3 guys out, and some other guys in. This will be a retool/reshape of the team, and, I really hope Rutherford gets it right.


Trade Letang, he is arguably at peak value and this team plays a more structured defensive system without him.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby pens_CT on Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:07 pm

Jim wrote:The trades that will happen this summer will be for picks/prospects coming back. Nothing that increases cap. They are not going to move out a $5M guy for a $3M guy to come back. It is also much more likely that D will get moved out over F simply because of the roster situation (8 NHL D)

Hornqvist just negotiated for the NTC. He is not going to waive it year 1. He is not getting traded this summer.
Kessel costs this team $6.8M cap hit, for a point a game. A goal drought (not a point drought) is not going to make the team want to move him. Someone would have to offer to GROSSLY overpay for him in terms of picks/prospects for the Pens to move him.
Bjugstad has no ties to the team. He could get moved.
No other F has a cap hit that is high enough to help the team by being moved.

Schultz has become too important to the team to move for cap reasons.
Gudbranson is probably the #1 chance of being the guy moved.
Johnson will only be moved if he askes for a trade.
Maatta seems to be the guy on the bubble.

Likelihood of being delt this summer:
1. Gudbranson
(short drop)
2a. Maatta
2b. Bjugstad
(long drop)
3. Johnson
(extremely long drop)
4. Murray


Do you really believe Gundbranson’s contract is movable without taking back some significant amount of salary? I find that hard to believe.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby longtimefan on Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:13 pm

pens_CT wrote:
Jim wrote:The trades that will happen this summer will be for picks/prospects coming back. Nothing that increases cap. They are not going to move out a $5M guy for a $3M guy to come back. It is also much more likely that D will get moved out over F simply because of the roster situation (8 NHL D)

Hornqvist just negotiated for the NTC. He is not going to waive it year 1. He is not getting traded this summer.
Kessel costs this team $6.8M cap hit, for a point a game. A goal drought (not a point drought) is not going to make the team want to move him. Someone would have to offer to GROSSLY overpay for him in terms of picks/prospects for the Pens to move him.
Bjugstad has no ties to the team. He could get moved.
No other F has a cap hit that is high enough to help the team by being moved.

Schultz has become too important to the team to move for cap reasons.
Gudbranson is probably the #1 chance of being the guy moved.
Johnson will only be moved if he askes for a trade.
Maatta seems to be the guy on the bubble.

Likelihood of being delt this summer:
1. Gudbranson
(short drop)
2a. Maatta
2b. Bjugstad
(long drop)
3. Johnson
(extremely long drop)
4. Murray


Do you really believe Gundbranson’s contract is movable without taking back some significant amount of salary? I find that hard to believe.


Which is one of the issues I have with the boards. Why do you believe that? He went #3 overall. Overdrafted. But the only two re-drafts I've seen so far had him going 6th in one, and 12th in the other. JJ would also go in the first round of his draft year in a re-draft. Gudbransson was given a $4M salary just last summer. These guys have more league wide value than this board perceives.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby pens_CT on Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:20 pm

longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
Jim wrote:The trades that will happen this summer will be for picks/prospects coming back. Nothing that increases cap. They are not going to move out a $5M guy for a $3M guy to come back. It is also much more likely that D will get moved out over F simply because of the roster situation (8 NHL D)

Hornqvist just negotiated for the NTC. He is not going to waive it year 1. He is not getting traded this summer.
Kessel costs this team $6.8M cap hit, for a point a game. A goal drought (not a point drought) is not going to make the team want to move him. Someone would have to offer to GROSSLY overpay for him in terms of picks/prospects for the Pens to move him.
Bjugstad has no ties to the team. He could get moved.
No other F has a cap hit that is high enough to help the team by being moved.

Schultz has become too important to the team to move for cap reasons.
Gudbranson is probably the #1 chance of being the guy moved.
Johnson will only be moved if he askes for a trade.
Maatta seems to be the guy on the bubble.

Likelihood of being delt this summer:
1. Gudbranson
(short drop)
2a. Maatta
2b. Bjugstad
(long drop)
3. Johnson
(extremely long drop)
4. Murray


Do you really believe Gundbranson’s contract is movable without taking back some significant amount of salary? I find that hard to believe.


Which is one of the issues I have with the boards. Why do you believe that? He went #3 overall. Overdrafted. But the only two re-drafts I've seen so far had him going 6th in one, and 12th in the other. JJ would also go in the first round of his draft year in a re-draft. Gudbransson was given a $4M salary just last summer. These guys have more league wide value than this board perceives.


By every metric his play in Vancouver this season was horrible. He has looked good with the Penguins but it's too small a sample size to say he has re-invented himself. A four million cap hit isn't trivial unless some team believes he fits in the top 4. As we stand today that's very optimistic.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby longtimefan on Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:52 pm

pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
Jim wrote:The trades that will happen this summer will be for picks/prospects coming back. Nothing that increases cap. They are not going to move out a $5M guy for a $3M guy to come back. It is also much more likely that D will get moved out over F simply because of the roster situation (8 NHL D)

Hornqvist just negotiated for the NTC. He is not going to waive it year 1. He is not getting traded this summer.
Kessel costs this team $6.8M cap hit, for a point a game. A goal drought (not a point drought) is not going to make the team want to move him. Someone would have to offer to GROSSLY overpay for him in terms of picks/prospects for the Pens to move him.
Bjugstad has no ties to the team. He could get moved.
No other F has a cap hit that is high enough to help the team by being moved.

Schultz has become too important to the team to move for cap reasons.
Gudbranson is probably the #1 chance of being the guy moved.
Johnson will only be moved if he askes for a trade.
Maatta seems to be the guy on the bubble.

Likelihood of being delt this summer:
1. Gudbranson
(short drop)
2a. Maatta
2b. Bjugstad
(long drop)
3. Johnson
(extremely long drop)
4. Murray


Do you really believe Gundbranson’s contract is movable without taking back some significant amount of salary? I find that hard to believe.


Which is one of the issues I have with the boards. Why do you believe that? He went #3 overall. Overdrafted. But the only two re-drafts I've seen so far had him going 6th in one, and 12th in the other. JJ would also go in the first round of his draft year in a re-draft. Gudbransson was given a $4M salary just last summer. These guys have more league wide value than this board perceives.


By every metric his play in Vancouver this season was horrible. He has looked good with the Penguins but it's too small a sample size to say he has re-invented himself. A four million cap hit isn't trivial unless some team believes he fits in the top 4. As we stand today that's very optimistic.


I think a lot of the contracts handed out tell you that the fans value the metrics differently than the decision makers. Otherwise, why do they keep giving these contracts out? Gudbranson has 451 games under his belt at age 26. Plus, $4M is about the going rate for a 4/5 tweener at this point. Or will be likely this summer. Teams see value differently than a bunch of metrics. Like it or not, his pummeling of Tom Wilson still holds some value around the league. Again, he came out at #6 and #12 in those redrafts. Like JJ, the powers that be in the hockey world value them differently than the stat crazed fan base. Advanced metrics are tools, but the fan base seems to not care much for Simon. Even though his advanced stats rank among the best on the team.
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Re: A look ahead: 2019-2020 Cap Issues

Postby Maestro on Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:00 pm

Anyone who truly understands statistics understands that not all aspects to an individual's fit onto a team in a team sport containing an assortment of different roles can be measured in some universal way.

The relative Corsi mantra is stale.
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