Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:59 am

longtimefan wrote:https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019/01/18/insider-penguins-brassard-contract/

I guess it comes down to what report you want to believe, and he doesn't really say much, but this from DK this morning.

With Casey DeSmith under contract through 2021-22, Tristan Jarry‘s path to the NHL is blocked with the Penguins. That means Jarry has become an expendable asset whom I’m told is likely to be moved at the deadline. As mentioned last week, Jarry’s contract is a one-way deal for next season so there’s no way the Penguins will pay him $675,000 to play in the AHL. — Bradford

I do think Jarry will be traded, but, unless Rutherford can get a solid AHL goalie with NHL experience at the deadline for pennies....it makes much more sense to move Jarry at the draft.

If one of DeSmith or Murray were to get injured (Murray? Injured? NEVER!!!), I bet 80% of fans couldn't even name the next goalie up if Jarry was gone. It would likely be 30 year old John Muse, an undrafted goalie who has never played a game in the NHL.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby DelPen on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:14 am

Anthony Peters is the WBS backup but he’s on an AHL deal I believe and would need to sign an NHL contract and clear waivers to be called up.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby blurryhaze312 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:15 am

FLPensFan wrote:IF (big if) CBJ and PIT were to hookup, and IF CBJ was willing to retain about 1M on Wennberg, it could work. Wennberg is a good setup guy, which may mesh very well with Kessel. Wennberg put up 13 goals and 46 assists one year (which earned him that overpaid contract). He's good defensively and plays the PK. He's only average on faceoffs, though. He's a hair under 50% at Even Strength, but 25% short handed.


Boy, I'd jump at Wennberg. Before Dubois emerged, Wennberg was supposed to be the future star center for them. He just started that brand new 6 year contract last season (right?) and is 24. Even at $4.9/year, that's not terrible to be set up down the middle and not have to think about this problem again until Sid/Malkin are near the end. At the end of that contract, at 29, you just might have a solid/star replacement if one of Sid/Malkin retire or plan to in the following years.

Is it fair to say he's overpaid? In 2015-16 he could have put up close to 50 points if playing a full season. Would have been mid 40's last year as well if 82 games. Also, he's completely absent from the PP after putting up 35 PPP from 2015-16 through 2016-17.

I'd be all over bringing this guy in.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Jim on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:33 am

FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019/01/18/insider-penguins-brassard-contract/

I guess it comes down to what report you want to believe, and he doesn't really say much, but this from DK this morning.

With Casey DeSmith under contract through 2021-22, Tristan Jarry‘s path to the NHL is blocked with the Penguins. That means Jarry has become an expendable asset whom I’m told is likely to be moved at the deadline. As mentioned last week, Jarry’s contract is a one-way deal for next season so there’s no way the Penguins will pay him $675,000 to play in the AHL. — Bradford

I do think Jarry will be traded, but, unless Rutherford can get a solid AHL goalie with NHL experience at the deadline for pennies....it makes much more sense to move Jarry at the draft.

If one of DeSmith or Murray were to get injured (Murray? Injured? NEVER!!!), I bet 80% of fans couldn't even name the next goalie up if Jarry was gone. It would likely be 30 year old John Muse, an undrafted goalie who has never played a game in the NHL.


I call baloney on another "writer". The Pens are already paying Jarry $200K to play in the AHL. They have a few "large for the AHL" salaries in the AHL. The salary is not the issue. The problem is that Jarry will no longer be waiver exempt next year and wouldn't pass waivers when sent down next season. Also, his salary next year is $700K. His contract's cap hit is $675K a year. With just a TINY bit of journalistic integrity and research the actual facts that they say could be correct. When they can't get simple facts correct what value is their speculations and "inside info"?
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:39 am

Jim wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019/01/18/insider-penguins-brassard-contract/

I guess it comes down to what report you want to believe, and he doesn't really say much, but this from DK this morning.

With Casey DeSmith under contract through 2021-22, Tristan Jarry‘s path to the NHL is blocked with the Penguins. That means Jarry has become an expendable asset whom I’m told is likely to be moved at the deadline. As mentioned last week, Jarry’s contract is a one-way deal for next season so there’s no way the Penguins will pay him $675,000 to play in the AHL. — Bradford

I do think Jarry will be traded, but, unless Rutherford can get a solid AHL goalie with NHL experience at the deadline for pennies....it makes much more sense to move Jarry at the draft.

If one of DeSmith or Murray were to get injured (Murray? Injured? NEVER!!!), I bet 80% of fans couldn't even name the next goalie up if Jarry was gone. It would likely be 30 year old John Muse, an undrafted goalie who has never played a game in the NHL.


I call baloney on another "writer". The Pens are already paying Jarry $200K to play in the AHL. They have a few "large for the AHL" salaries in the AHL. The salary is not the issue. The problem is that Jarry will no longer be waiver exempt next year and wouldn't pass waivers when sent down next season. Also, his salary next year is $700K. His contract's cap hit is $675K a year. With just a TINY bit of journalistic integrity and research the actual facts that they say could be correct. When they can't get simple facts correct what value is their speculations and "inside info"?

Agreed. I'm not a fan of Bradford at all. And DK's "big hockey hire" didn't even last half a season.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby longtimefan on Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:05 am

FLPensFan wrote:
pens_CT wrote:
longtimefan wrote:https://abc11.com/sports/carolina-hurricanes-gm-waddell-talks-ferland-trade-deadline/5093874/

An interview with Don Waddell about Ferland. Even though the fans are clamoring big time for them to sign him, they don't appear close on terms. Waddell basically said that they weren't contenders, and would have to trade him. Unfortunately, the PEns don't seem to be a fit. They are looking for forwards with skill. Not something the Pens can offer in abundance.


Its a month before the deadline and Waddell can ask for whatever he wants at this point. When he gets to the final minutes before the deadline he will probably take whatever he can get which is probably a prospect and a draft pick. The return will probably be lot less than the current price.

Agree and disagree. The price will certainly drop. Seems every year the "rumored asking price" for just about any player regardless of skill, cap hit, term, or age, is "a first round pick and a prospect."

Ferland, though, appears to be the flavor of the day, that multiple teams are vying for. In that case, the price still has a chance to remain pretty high.

On Brassard and Columbus, with CBJ soundly in the playoffs, I don't think it is realistic that they would trade Jenner (although, I'd jump at the chance). I have heard a possibility of Alex Wennberg, and that would make a lot more sense. Wennberg is a 3C. He has only 1 goal, but 19 assists, AND an overpaid cap hit of 4.9M for 4 more years. IF (big if) CBJ and PIT were to hookup, and IF CBJ was willing to retain about 1M on Wennberg, it could work. Wennberg is a good setup guy, which may mesh very well with Kessel. Wennberg put up 13 goals and 46 assists one year (which earned him that overpaid contract). He's good defensively and plays the PK. He's only average on faceoffs, though. He's a hair under 50% at Even Strength, but 25% short handed.


I think the talk about the Pens dealing with the Jackets is more conversation than anything. It's always possible, but is as less likely than the Pens trading with the Flyers. The two teams are competing too closely for the same spot. At least the Flyers appear out of it. I just don't see it.

In terms of Ferland, you're right, he's the flavor of the month. I don't think there's much chance of his moving until probably deadline day. The Canes aren't out of it, and they've got a tricky PR situation with Ferland. The owner had a face to face with Ferland recently, which means they really want to sign him. They made a big deal with the Flames, and it isn't looking very good, with Ferland the silver lining. Tom Dundon isn't Peter Karmanos, and is eager to please his fanbase. His willingness to take on extra $$$ helped get the Rask/Nino deal done. That same fanbase has started a GoFundMe page to pay Ferland. :)

I wouldn't be surprised to see him sign with the Canes. If he doesn't, it's safe to assume that his asking price is prohibitive. Signing him would be huge for the fanbase. He's very attravtive as a trade piece, partially because of his cap hit. Which makes him affordable to pretty much everybody. However, I'm not so sure GM's will come calling with Wilson money this summer. To be honest, he may not get a better offer than the Canes will give him now.

They will negotiate with him as long as they can, which is why I say he's a deadline deal. Don Waddell is the same GM who traded the Pens Hossa literally at the deadline. Ultimately, I think he'll sign with the Canes. The new owner has money, they have the cap space, and the fervor to resign Ferland went up big time with the destruction of Watson. I saw a Canes announcer say it may have been the loudest PNC Arena had ever been. That's just my opinion though! I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby longtimefan on Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:15 am

FLPensFan wrote:
Jim wrote:
FLPensFan wrote:
longtimefan wrote:https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2019/01/18/insider-penguins-brassard-contract/

I guess it comes down to what report you want to believe, and he doesn't really say much, but this from DK this morning.

With Casey DeSmith under contract through 2021-22, Tristan Jarry‘s path to the NHL is blocked with the Penguins. That means Jarry has become an expendable asset whom I’m told is likely to be moved at the deadline. As mentioned last week, Jarry’s contract is a one-way deal for next season so there’s no way the Penguins will pay him $675,000 to play in the AHL. — Bradford

I do think Jarry will be traded, but, unless Rutherford can get a solid AHL goalie with NHL experience at the deadline for pennies....it makes much more sense to move Jarry at the draft.

If one of DeSmith or Murray were to get injured (Murray? Injured? NEVER!!!), I bet 80% of fans couldn't even name the next goalie up if Jarry was gone. It would likely be 30 year old John Muse, an undrafted goalie who has never played a game in the NHL.


I call baloney on another "writer". The Pens are already paying Jarry $200K to play in the AHL. They have a few "large for the AHL" salaries in the AHL. The salary is not the issue. The problem is that Jarry will no longer be waiver exempt next year and wouldn't pass waivers when sent down next season. Also, his salary next year is $700K. His contract's cap hit is $675K a year. With just a TINY bit of journalistic integrity and research the actual facts that they say could be correct. When they can't get simple facts correct what value is their speculations and "inside info"?

Agreed. I'm not a fan of Bradford at all. And DK's "big hockey hire" didn't even last half a season.


i just noticed the part about him saying the Pens wouldn't pay him that money in the AHL. Which makes him an idiot. He should cover the Pirates. As far as when he'll be moved, I think that comes down to the piece you want at the deadline, and what the other team is looking for. If the team is interested in Jarry, I don't think JR would hesitate. The Pens have proven the need for quality goaltening depth, and it's great to have. But if you think the piece in return might put you over the top, you don't hesitate. Depth is great, but the fact is you probably won't go far if you have to go to your 3rd goalie for any length of time. Zatkoff got them through two games, but could he have gotten them past the Rangers in 2016? He certainly would not have beaten the Caps. Jarry's nice depth, but the 3rd guy seldom comes into play. So you move him now if he's the piece needed to complete a deal.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby ville5 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:38 am

Maestro wrote:I'd do Boone Jenner for Brassard - I think that'd be the main part of a CBJ-Pit trade. i think it just might happen too.

Jenner would be perfect if he'd be alright with less ice time. Think his average is 17-18 mins per game. Defensive zone starts are well over 50% career wise. Wennberg otoh only has a career 44% of defensive zone starts. With last season being his lowest at 38.9% defensive zone starts. Is that because they dont really trust him? Or because Jenner excels at it much more?
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Mad City Mike on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:01 pm

ville5 wrote:
Maestro wrote:I'd do Boone Jenner for Brassard - I think that'd be the main part of a CBJ-Pit trade. i think it just might happen too.

Jenner would be perfect if he'd be alright with less ice time. Think his average is 17-18 mins per game. Defensive zone starts are well over 50% career wise. Wennberg otoh only has a career 44% of defensive zone starts. With last season being his lowest at 38.9% defensive zone starts. Is that because they dont really trust him? Or because Jenner excels at it much more?


Why on earth would CBJ trade Jenner for a pending UFA? And to the team they might face in the first round? This makes zero sense..
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby pens_CT on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:07 pm

ville5 wrote:
Maestro wrote:I'd do Boone Jenner for Brassard - I think that'd be the main part of a CBJ-Pit trade. i think it just might happen too.

Jenner would be perfect if he'd be alright with less ice time. Think his average is 17-18 mins per game. Defensive zone starts are well over 50% career wise. Wennberg otoh only has a career 44% of defensive zone starts. With last season being his lowest at 38.9% defensive zone starts. Is that because they dont really trust him? Or because Jenner excels at it much more?


I don't think Jenner's ice time would drop much when you consider Brassard doesn't kill penalties and Jenner does. Brassard is averaging over 15 minutes per games now, and you add the additional 1.5 minutes per game that Jenner averages on the PK and you're approaching the 17 minutes that Jenner is currently averaging.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby pens_CT on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:09 pm

Mad City Mike wrote:
ville5 wrote:
Maestro wrote:I'd do Boone Jenner for Brassard - I think that'd be the main part of a CBJ-Pit trade. i think it just might happen too.

Jenner would be perfect if he'd be alright with less ice time. Think his average is 17-18 mins per game. Defensive zone starts are well over 50% career wise. Wennberg otoh only has a career 44% of defensive zone starts. With last season being his lowest at 38.9% defensive zone starts. Is that because they dont really trust him? Or because Jenner excels at it much more?


Why on earth would CBJ trade Jenner for a pending UFA? And to the team they might face in the first round? This makes zero sense..


They're more likely to trade Wennberg based what he is producing and his cap hit. Jenner is a pipe dream for a message board.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Jim on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:24 pm

Jenner gets 13:54 ev while Drassard gets 13:39. That is negligible.

Jenner gets 1:35 PK, 1st among F in Columbus. That rated 5th in Pittsburgh (Sheahan, Cullen, Rust, ZAR)

Jenner, and his 2 powerplay points, gets 2:03 PP time per game. They have 7 F with basically 2 or more pp minutes per game, none over 3. That's more of a "We don't know what to do on the PP" more than anything else. Which their 27th in PP% shows.

So his ev time would remain steady. His PK time would probably go up. His PP time would fall off the edge. His overall time would probably drop a minute.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby ville5 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:48 pm

Mad City Mike wrote:
ville5 wrote:
Maestro wrote:I'd do Boone Jenner for Brassard - I think that'd be the main part of a CBJ-Pit trade. i think it just might happen too.

Jenner would be perfect if he'd be alright with less ice time. Think his average is 17-18 mins per game. Defensive zone starts are well over 50% career wise. Wennberg otoh only has a career 44% of defensive zone starts. With last season being his lowest at 38.9% defensive zone starts. Is that because they dont really trust him? Or because Jenner excels at it much more?


Why on earth would CBJ trade Jenner for a pending UFA? And to the team they might face in the first round? This makes zero sense..

They wouldn't straight up. Jenner produces about the same ppg as Brassard at his best. It would definitely have to be a package deal with one of our excess D moving with Brassard.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby pens_CT on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:55 pm

Jim wrote:Jenner gets 13:54 ev while Drassard gets 13:39. That is negligible.

Jenner gets 1:35 PK, 1st among F in Columbus. That rated 5th in Pittsburgh (Sheahan, Cullen, Rust, ZAR)

Jenner, and his 2 powerplay points, gets 2:03 PP time per game. They have 7 F with basically 2 or more pp minutes per game, none over 3. That's more of a "We don't know what to do on the PP" more than anything else. Which their 27th in PP% shows.

So his ev time would remain steady. His PK time would probably go up. His PP time would fall off the edge. His overall time would probably drop a minute.


Brassard averages about 1:20 per game on the PP, so yeah theoretically his total TOI would fall a minute but I suspect that Sullivan would trust Jenner more than Brassard defensively so I can see that giving him some additional EV time, so his total TOI here would be close to a wash as compared to Columbus.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Maestro on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:46 pm

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1

To me the deal wold be about fit. I don't see a lot of difference from their last full season that sticks out as 1 obviously being of more value over the other. Both are not setting the world on fire now (Brass is obviously not playing well). It's a change of scenery, change of system trade.

Even the line combinations site scores Jenner as 72.9 (#84 center) and DB as 71.3 (#130 center) this season - but that is comparing a 2nd with a 3rd line so...

Due to age and contract Pens add something to the trade. That must be negotiated.

But it's still predicated on the BJs (and Pens) deciding this is the direction they want to go.

Why do it? Because the BJs think they will have a better 2nd line with DB in it than BJ and they definitely want to upgrade their 2nd line. They want to see if DB fits and if so plan to extend him in the summer - which considering his production over the past 11 months, shouldn't be hard unless he explodes and helps them win the conf, in which case they will already have won the deal from their perspective.


Will it happen?
Who knows.

I personally see Brassard's last game for the Pens being tomorrow. That gives the org 9 days to make a switch.

The Blue Jacket deal is nice in that it only takes 1 deal, not 2 separate deals or a 3 team deal.
The money is about the same (for this season)


Otherwise - maybe they circle back to Jeff Carter - but Carter was very clear his family has no intention of moving - he has a young child - they are settled - they love So Cal (no duh) and he has a complete no movement clause.

The other names outside of Duchene which I don't see happening - don't move the dial - maybe Adam Lowry who adds size.

Time will tell.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby FLPensFan on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:16 pm

Maestro wrote:https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1

To me the deal wold be about fit. I don't see a lot of difference from their last full season that sticks out as 1 obviously being of more value over the other. Both are not setting the world on fire now (Brass is obviously not playing well). It's a change of scenery, change of system trade.

Even the line combinations site scores Jenner as 72.9 (#84 center) and DB as 71.3 (#130 center) this season - but that is comparing a 2nd with a 3rd line so...

Due to age and contract Pens add something to the trade. That must be negotiated.

But it's still predicated on the BJs (and Pens) deciding this is the direction they want to go.

Why do it? Because the BJs think they will have a better 2nd line with DB in it than BJ and they definitely want to upgrade their 2nd line. They want to see if DB fits and if so plan to extend him in the summer - which considering his production over the past 11 months, shouldn't be hard unless he explodes and helps them win the conf, in which case they will already have won the deal from their perspective.


Will it happen?
Who knows.

I personally see Brassard's last game for the Pens being tomorrow. That gives the org 9 days to make a switch.

The Blue Jacket deal is nice in that it only takes 1 deal, not 2 separate deals or a 3 team deal.
The money is about the same (for this season)


Otherwise - maybe they circle back to Jeff Carter - but Carter was very clear his family has no intention of moving - he has a young child - they are settled - they love So Cal (no duh) and he has a complete no movement clause.

The other names outside of Duchene which I don't see happening - don't move the dial - maybe Adam Lowry who adds size.

Time will tell.

Carter is too old, too expensive, and requires too much ice time that he won't get here.
Duchene is similar boat....too expensive, no term, and won't get enough ice time here.
Lowry isn't much of an upgrade over Sheahan.

Not saying who is available and who isn't, but GMJR needs to find someone that can produce with around 13-14 minutes of ES ice time per game. Guys that are up in the 18-19 minute range (Carter and Duchene) won't work here (even though some of that time is PP time). Will be exact same issue Brassard had.

There are a bunch of players who can put up 35-50 points who get less than 16 minutes of TOI per night. Are they available? I dunno, but those are who the Penguins should be looking at.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Pitts on Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:58 pm

LOL. Columbus will not trade Boone Jenner to the Pens.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby brwi on Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:43 pm

longtimefan wrote:In terms of Ferland, you're right, he's the flavor of the month. I don't think there's much chance of his moving until probably deadline day. The Canes aren't out of it, and they've got a tricky PR situation with Ferland. The owner had a face to face with Ferland recently, which means they really want to sign him. They made a big deal with the Flames, and it isn't looking very good, with Ferland the silver lining. Tom Dundon isn't Peter Karmanos, and is eager to please his fanbase. His willingness to take on extra $$$ helped get the Rask/Nino deal done. That same fanbase has started a GoFundMe page to pay Ferland. :)

The best thing Dundon could do to please the fan base is immediately fire President/GM Waddell due to incompetence ever since he has been a GM in the NHL. Of course, Dundon is likely to please every other teams fan bases by retaining Waddell.

When you are heading into the season in desperate need for scoring forwards, let's trade Skinner for a prospect and a couple of middling picks. Skinner was already a two time 30g man and has 30 already this year. Brilliant! Then there's the Hanifin/Lindholm for Hamilton/Ferland. Scoring forwards? Lindholm has 21g/35a in Calgary. Hamilton is pretty good but Hanifin has serious upside and is 21. Canes also didn't need another RHD unless they were moving Faulk and that hasn't happened. Typical Waddell ineptitude and what's Carolina's biggest need still right now? Scoring forwards! Even more so than goaltending.

Ferland is definitely getting the same kind of hype that Brassard also got leading into the trade deadline last year. I'm guessing he gets moved because the Canes don't feel like they can re-up him and the return will be a real blah for the Canes. Waddell is simply not shrewd, though the Niro-Rask trade looks like a rare win for Waddell.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby DelPen on Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:51 pm

What’s the buyout penalty for Johnson?
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby cojac on Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:23 am

DelPen wrote:What’s the buyout penalty for Johnson?

A little over $1m for the next 8 years
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby NJ5934 on Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:17 am

All things considered, no way the Pens are moving him and his contract in it's entirety. I think we're eating a million whether he's bought out or traded.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby ville5 on Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:59 am

Sens offered Duchene 8 years, $64 million??? Say what?
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source= ... 2913119183
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby stonewizard51 on Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:09 am

NJ5934 wrote:All things considered, no way the Pens are moving him and his contract in it's entirety. I think we're eating a million whether he's bought out or traded.


If they don't trade him or buy him out they're stuck with him for 4 more years at $3.25 mil/year so IMHO at this point to get his azz off the ice eating a million of his contract seems like a small price to pay. Why in the **** JR thought he was going to be the next best thing since sliced bread is beyond me.
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby DelPen on Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:28 am

cojac wrote:
DelPen wrote:What’s the buyout penalty for Johnson?

A little over $1m for the next 8 years

Seems worth it then
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Re: Shaking up the Penguins, Part 2

Postby Lesky on Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:12 am

What happens with Johnsons contract if he is sent to WBS NOW? Does the full contract hit still count against the cap?

Would Johnson accept to play 4 years in the AHL or would he refuse to report, and what would happen to his contract and cap hit if he refused to report to WBS?
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