Lockout

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Re: Lockout

Postby Pavel Bure on Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:21 pm

I'm having like a mid hockey life crisis. I'm so bitter about both sides screwing this up that I give almost no effs if hockey comes back and almost feel like they don't deserve my viewership and money buying merch if/when they do come back. The lockout before this I felt like a die hard pulling through, this one I feel like an unwanted child caught between warring parents. Eff the players and eff the NHL.
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Re: Lockout

Postby viva la ben on Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:24 pm

It will be a long time before I purchase any NHL merchandise
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Re: Lockout

Postby offsides on Sat Nov 24, 2012 1:11 am

viva la ben wrote:It will be a long time before I purchase any NHL merchandise


Yeah, me too, I got enough hockey stuff to last three lifetimes.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Mr. Colby on Sat Nov 24, 2012 1:40 am

If I were the owners, and the NHLPA tried to decertify, I'd withdraw all proposals and laugh my ass all the way to court.

If they won the court ruling (they wouldn't), the NHL would thereby operate under no CBA and they could make up their own radical rules that these "ready, willing, and able contracted individuals" would be forced to follow.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bioshock on Sat Nov 24, 2012 4:39 am

I still don't understand this idea of decertifying the union. If they did that, it would void all contracts, eliminate the draft, arbitration, make every NHL player a UFA and kill several franchises in the process. Not to mention all the revenue from this year. All the experts are saying that it would wipe this season and possibly into the next. All that? Over 200 million dollar gap? That just doesn't make sense and the owners know it.

The NHL would contract and you would never see revenue like this again. At least not for a decade, possibly more.

This just doesn't make any sense to me because if it's a real tactic by the NHLPA, they would lose far more than they could ever hope to gain. If it's a ploy, then the owners know this and all it does is slow things down even more and the players and owners make even less revenue this season. Revenue they can never get back. I'm sure they would lose more than the 200 million they hope to gain.
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Re: Lockout

Postby interstorm on Sat Nov 24, 2012 8:43 am

Bioshock wrote:I still don't understand this idea of decertifying the union. If they did that, it would void all contracts, eliminate the draft, arbitration, make every NHL player a UFA and kill several franchises in the process. Not to mention all the revenue from this year. All the experts are saying that it would wipe this season and possibly into the next. All that? Over 200 million dollar gap? That just doesn't make sense and the owners know it.

The NHL would contract and you would never see revenue like this again. At least not for a decade, possibly more.

This just doesn't make any sense to me because if it's a real tactic by the NHLPA, they would lose far more than they could ever hope to gain. If it's a ploy, then the owners know this and all it does is slow things down even more and the players and owners make even less revenue this season. Revenue they can never get back. I'm sure they would lose more than the 200 million they hope to gain.

Remember, an NHL franchise is an investment (one owners can even take loans out against). In an era of contraction and unstability, what do you think would happen to the appraisal value of these investments?
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Re: Lockout

Postby Sam's Drunk Dog on Sat Nov 24, 2012 9:04 am

Mr. Colby wrote:they could make up their own radical rules that these "ready, willing, and able contracted individuals" would be forced to follow.

Actually they couldn't do anything considered to be violating antitrust regulations which would mean no salary cap, no contract restrictions, etc. I don't think the NHLPA will be successful if they decertify. The NFLPA was initially able to use the courts to end their most recent lookout but the NFL was granted a stay during the appeal process. The two sides were also forced to mediation with threats from the Appeals judge that neither side would enjoy the ruling made if a new CBA wasn't agreed to.
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Re: Lockout

Postby no name on Sat Nov 24, 2012 1:20 pm

Sam's Drunk Dog wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:they could make up their own radical rules that these "ready, willing, and able contracted individuals" would be forced to follow.

Actually they couldn't do anything considered to be violating antitrust regulations which would mean no salary cap, no contract restrictions, etc. I don't think the NHLPA will be successful if they decertify. The NFLPA was initially able to use the courts to end their most recent lookout but the NFL was granted a stay during the appeal process. The two sides were also forced to mediation with threats from the Appeals judge that neither side would enjoy the ruling made if a new CBA wasn't agreed to.


Remember the KHL pays close if not more than the NHL, so alot of the best players would go over seas to play in Russia if decertification would be held up in courts. I don't think it would.

Its funny but it really doesn't appear negotiations have taken place. Its been proposals, but not a give and take and finind middle ground. You give me this and i will give you that... ok now lets find middle ground on this issue. Example, i will give you the 5% varience if you give me the 27/7. And you want 393 million we are willing to pay 211, lets find a middle number that works.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bathgate on Sat Nov 24, 2012 2:04 pm

no name wrote:Its funny but it really doesn't appear negotiations have taken place. Its been proposals, but not a give and take and finind middle ground. You give me this and i will give you that... ok now lets find middle ground on this issue. Example, i will give you the 5% varience if you give me the 27/7. And you want 393 million we are willing to pay 211, lets find a middle number that works.


It’s simple. The owners won’t compromise a lot because it would still leave many franchises, and the league as a whole, economically unhealthy. The players won’t compromise a lot because Fehr has them still fuming about their 2005 “defeat” and about principles like “make whole” that if not achieved would likely never seriously harm any player’s lifestyle or financial future.

An Ottawa columnist says it’s time to call in the replacement players:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/11/23/lockouts-not-ending-anytime-soon-so-send-in-replacement-players

QUESTION: Would you attend games if they used replacement players and charged half price? I would, as strong support for this would force the players to cave.
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Re: Lockout

Postby tfrizz on Sat Nov 24, 2012 2:21 pm

Bathgate wrote:QUESTION: Would you attend games if they used replacement players and charged half price? I would, as strong support for this would force the players to cave.


It won't happen due to a multitude of legal issues, but even if they tried who are they going to bring in as replacements? Many players in the AHL have two-way or NHL contracts, so they are part of the NHLPA and thus they are locked out.

For example, the Leafs would only be able to use 5 players from the Marlies because the rest of them have NHL deals.
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Re: Lockout

Postby penny lane on Sat Nov 24, 2012 2:42 pm

NHL ticket prices to see replacements... I wouldn't pay. I can rationalize paying obscene amount of $$ because I get to watch Evgeni, Sid, Flower; some of the best talent in the nhl.

Shame on the owners for allowing hockey to go dark again. I won't buy another penguin - related item until Mario, Bettman, et al, get an agreement. I haven't since last April. No games in Pittsburgh is hurting local people; 2.1 million for every game lost.

An average Penguins home game is worth about $2.1 million to the region, according to a study from the tourism bureau VisitPittsburgh. The Penguins usually collect between $1 million and $1.3 million in revenue, which leaves restaurants, hotels and other businesses to share anywhere from $800,000 to $1.1 million.



Read more: http://triblive.com/sports/nhl/2995868- ... z2DAPis0yL
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Re: Lockout

Postby BurghersAndDogsSports on Sat Nov 24, 2012 2:56 pm

Bathgate wrote:
no name wrote:Its funny but it really doesn't appear negotiations have taken place. Its been proposals, but not a give and take and finind middle ground. You give me this and i will give you that... ok now lets find middle ground on this issue. Example, i will give you the 5% varience if you give me the 27/7. And you want 393 million we are willing to pay 211, lets find a middle number that works.


It’s simple. The owners won’t compromise a lot because it would still leave many franchises, and the league as a whole, economically unhealthy. The players won’t compromise a lot because Fehr has them still fuming about their 2005 “defeat” and about principles like “make whole” that if not achieved would likely never seriously harm any player’s lifestyle or financial future.

An Ottawa columnist says it’s time to call in the replacement players:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/11/23/lockouts-not-ending-anytime-soon-so-send-in-replacement-players

QUESTION: Would you attend games if they used replacement players and charged half price? I would, as strong support for this would force the players to cave.


It is kind of funny how the different facts or issues get ignored depending on who someone is attacking.

For example, Bill Simmons wrote an article, and not that he is a partial voice or anything, but was saying how Bettman screwed up by not putting in enough contract limitations in 2005 which is true, but at the same time the players dropped about 20% of their take and a cap was put in place. Sports in general and not just the NHL where out of whack and the NHL got the best deal it could at the time, actually got a lot back and it turns out wasn't quite enough, and to me that is the problem. The players keep acting like the victims in the 2005 and because of that that are not seeing it realistically.

While I think 5 years might be unrealistic these rules are not put in place to protect owners from themselves which is a common term, they are put in to keep the balance with mid and small market teams competing which in turn grows revenue and eventually makes a healthier lesgue with more money for the players. You can not realistically and actually legally expect all teams to work within an expected range and not the range set forth by the terms of a labor agreement.

The players in my mind are idiots, and again just my opinion Fehrs biggest mistake was not realizing that the NHL is small time compared to the other leagues. MLB has small markets that can actually survive and plenty of big markets that make hundreds of millions of dollars and can kick in to help sustain. Even with high revenue sharing the NHL will be running too tight margins.

All other leagues and players get it, except the NHL. let them go to Russia and make more money by getting salaries from Russian mobsters, play in 2,000 seat stadiums, and travel by bus......and not too mention lose the ability to bring their families out of the areas they are so happy to leave now. Oh, and let them all try to find these better playing leagues since people being it up, as if they are plentiful. Not everyone can go to a high paying league.

In the end it's over for the players either way. Get your boss out of the way and sign, just like the NFL and NBA players did. Oh yeah, and ask your nfl peers about guaranteed contracts.
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Re: Lockout

Postby interstorm on Sat Nov 24, 2012 2:57 pm

Bathgate wrote:
no name wrote:Its funny but it really doesn't appear negotiations have taken place. Its been proposals, but not a give and take and finind middle ground. You give me this and i will give you that... ok now lets find middle ground on this issue. Example, i will give you the 5% varience if you give me the 27/7. And you want 393 million we are willing to pay 211, lets find a middle number that works.


It’s simple. The owners won’t compromise a lot because it would still leave many franchises, and the league as a whole, economically unhealthy. The players won’t compromise a lot because Fehr has them still fuming about their 2005 “defeat” and about principles like “make whole” that if not achieved would likely never seriously harm any player’s lifestyle or financial future.

An Ottawa columnist says it’s time to call in the replacement players:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/11/23/lockouts-not-ending-anytime-soon-so-send-in-replacement-players

QUESTION: Would you attend games if they used replacement players and charged half price? I would, as strong support for this would force the players to cave.


2 things:

1)
the "economic unhealthy" tag for franchises aren't exactly true. Look at the Dow Jones industrial average on the stock market -- the 30 companies listed have an average yield of 3%. This means for every 100 dollars in investment, the stock PAYS $3 a year. While that is nice, it is obviously the ownership from an investment standpoint where the strongest gains hope to come from. Taking the 3% average -- for the statistical mean NHL franchise (worth $240 million according to Forbes) - the equivalent of the dividend payouts would be about 7.6 million a year.

Now clearly most teams are still underneath this value -- but I think this shows it is unreasonable to expect a business to have returns the likes of what the Leafs (income of $82 million), Rangers ($41 million) and Montreal ($48 million) pull in. In this light, even Vancouver ($23M), Edmonton($17M), Detroit ($16M) and Chicacgo ($9M) range from very good to respectable. Other teams on the line such as Boston and Philly (making money) to Carolina and Washington (losing money) -- these team had all made operating decisions (in one way or another) to place a higher priority for on-ice performance instead on what the balance sheet says. Easily put - they didn't have to spend like they did if they were interested in profit. Are we really supposed to pity Minnesota and say they are broken when they go out and spend like they did this summer?

My feeling is the regular dollars and cents, at least as far as an investment goes, never would be there to begin with. If an investment that cost $240,000,000 had the only benefit of returning under $8 million a year (3% - remember) --- most financial analysts would put that as a poor investment. Sure - makes money but that would almost be the same as buying bonds.

The true value for an NHL franchise is the appreciation -- something that has continued to flourish post-lockout with the average franchise appraisal value (again, according to Forbes) increasing 47%.

This is where my disconnect with the owner's position and their unwillingnes to negotiate comes from.

2)
Replacement players??? I watch the NHL to see the best in the world. If I wanted to watch anything else, I could do that at a fraction of what an NHL ticket would cost.
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Re: Lockout

Postby CERV96 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 4:06 pm

As much as it pains me to do this but I am no longer going to renew my tickets after this season(if there even is). With a taste of no season so far I have been able to make really good ground on my bills. If there is a game out there that I want to see I do not mind paying a little extra and enjoy myself more. With parking, food, and booze it all adds up. This is more personal then it is about the lockout.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bathgate on Sat Nov 24, 2012 4:26 pm

interstorm wrote:The true value for an NHL franchise is the appreciation -- something that has continued to flourish post-lockout with the average franchise appraisal value (again, according to Forbes) increasing 47%.

This is where my disconnect with the owner's position and their unwillingnes to negotiate comes from.

2)
Replacement players??? I watch the NHL to see the best in the world. If I wanted to watch anything else, I could do that at a fraction of what an NHL ticket would cost.


The era of increasing franchise values may be about to end. There are many on the political right and some on the political left who believe that a horrfic economic collapse is inevitable within several years, and they are not necessarily referring to the "financial cliff" coming up in January that may be resolved by a Congressional compromise and would stave off the collapse for awhile. They are talking about either a massive stock market collapse or hyperinflation, either of which would wipe out most of everybody's wealth. The cause would be monstrous debt at every level of government and the outcome will be Greece-like conditions, i.e., 25% unemployment and massive 3rd-world-like poverty. Major league franchises in all sports would see huge attendance declines (because nobody could afford to go) and great loss of franchise values, for those that survive at all.

As for using replacement players this season, imagine a 40-game season starting in January with ticket prices reduced by at least one half. Going to the games would be like seeing the Pirates, i.e., a pleasant evening watching minor leaguers in major league uniforms playing non-meaningful games at cheap prices. They could still have playoffs, but so as to not cheapen the Stanley Cup, they would be competing for the first Bettman Trophy, awarded every year that there is a lockout or strike of the players.
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Re: Lockout

Postby mikey287 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:41 pm

no name wrote:Remember the KHL pays close if not more than the NHL,


Is that a fact?
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Re: Lockout

Postby 71Aj66ax87 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:43 pm

So.....NHL stands for No Hockey League?
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bioshock on Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:52 pm

71Aj66ax87 wrote:So.....NHL stands for No Hockey League?


Pretty much.

You know what? I give up....

This league and the players that make up said league are so stupid that it has reached a point of being incomprehensible for me. The owners have no idea how to negotiate with a union that is actually unified and the players LITERALLY don't understand math.

The best analogy i can give to this situation is both sides are monkeys with baseball caps and automatic weapons.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Guinness on Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:25 pm

Bioshock wrote:
71Aj66ax87 wrote:So.....NHL stands for No Hockey League?


Pretty much.

You know what? I give up...


I'm shocked that I am so perilously close to this point, after just 2 months, myself.
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Re: Lockout

Postby Mr. Colby on Sat Nov 24, 2012 9:45 pm

mikey287 wrote:
no name wrote:Remember the KHL pays close if not more than the NHL,


Is that a fact?


Isn't there an IIHF rule that says they can only get 65% of their current contract in another league during a lockout?
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Re: Lockout

Postby mikey287 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 9:55 pm

Mr. Colby wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
no name wrote:Remember the KHL pays close if not more than the NHL,


Is that a fact?


Isn't there an IIHF rule that says they can only get 65% of their current contract in another league during a lockout?


I've never heard of anything even remotely close to that ever...so if that's a rule, then it's brand new to me...

Additionally, the IIHF does not rule over any professional leagues, so I find that hard to believe all together...
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Re: Lockout

Postby tfrizz on Sat Nov 24, 2012 10:17 pm

mikey287 wrote:
Mr. Colby wrote:
mikey287 wrote:
no name wrote:Remember the KHL pays close if not more than the NHL,


Is that a fact?


Isn't there an IIHF rule that says they can only get 65% of their current contract in another league during a lockout?


I've never heard of anything even remotely close to that ever...so if that's a rule, then it's brand new to me...

Additionally, the IIHF does not rule over any professional leagues, so I find that hard to believe all together...


It's a rule the KHL put in specifically for the lockout.

The IIHF doesn't rule over any leagues but I believe they do oversee the transfer agreements.
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Re: Lockout

Postby interstorm on Sat Nov 24, 2012 11:19 pm

Bathgate wrote:The era of increasing franchise values may be about to end.


Hey - not dismissing you comment or anything but I'm not sure what you were intending by posting speculation on the future as a response to historical fact. sure you are right that some are calling for a large market sell-off -- faber, the broken clock who was right so far once, has been saying that seemingly weekly since the last meltdown. i am sure there are lunatics out there who are saying their last good-byes in preparation for the mayan calendar end of world scenario. just not sure what that means for the lockout and its plans (not sure if you were really even commenting about that or just adding an aside to the conversation).
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Re: Lockout

Postby Bathgate on Sun Nov 25, 2012 12:54 am

interstorm wrote:
Bathgate wrote:The era of increasing franchise values may be about to end.


Hey - not dismissing you comment or anything but I'm not sure what you were intending by posting speculation on the future as a response to historical fact. sure you are right that some are calling for a large market sell-off -- faber, the broken clock who was right so far once, has been saying that seemingly weekly since the last meltdown. i am sure there are lunatics out there who are saying their last good-byes in preparation for the mayan calendar end of world scenario. just not sure what that means for the lockout and its plans (not sure if you were really even commenting about that or just adding an aside to the conversation).


Massive deficit spending and printing money to sustain it cannot continue for many more years without a meltdown of some sort. Greece had its meltdown from deficit spending and they are at 25% unemployment. In a major depression like that, few people would be able to afford to attend major league sports, so franchise values would go down in real dollars. Baseball attendance dropped dramatically during the Great Depression of the 1930's.

Both players and owners should consider our present precarious economy in negotiating the new CBA. Pegging player's salaries to HRR may be the best thing for both. If there is a meltdown without significant inflation, owners would be protected, as salaries would come down as HRR goes down. If there is hyperinflation (from the money printing), HRR might go up dramatically (from ticket price increases keeping up with inflation) despite an attendance decline. In such case, Sidney Crosby's $10 million salary, for example, might not be sufficient to buy a third line winger after a few years of hyperinflation, so he would see automatic salary increases by pegging salaries to HRR.
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Re: Lockout

Postby interstorm on Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:00 am

Bathgate wrote:Massive deficit spending and printing money to sustain it cannot continue for many more years without a meltdown of some sort.


I fear going off topic here -- not what I intend and so I won't look to hold a separate discussion (at least in this thread) here. Just want to say that we, as a country, have encountered higher debt (as a percentage of GDP) than what we're dealing with now. Coming out of WW2 we were saddled with a great debt - with responsibility it was brought down. Only 10-15 years later was a period many people would reflect on as a "Golden Era" in this country. The pundits (both right and left wing) in the media are always stating otherwise -- for the most part, they should be tuned out as they aren't providing warning or solutions...they're just looking for followers, ratings and -- at the end of it all -- money for their own pockets. They're entertainment...nothing more. http://visual.ly/united-states-debt-per ... -1940-2012

Also CNN just had a decent story about the doom and gloom reporting in this country and how things are "shockingly" not that bad: http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/24/opinion/j ... ?hpt=hp_c2
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